5 ms·

- This is a proper MSFT resource allocation commentary, not an industry wide canary in coalmine - MSFT CapEx is up 45% YoY, positioning for inference dominance

- This is a proper MSFT resource allocation commentary, not an industry wide canary in coalmine - MSFT CapEx is up 45% YoY, positioning for inference dominance - MSFT is prioritizing AI inference for millions of customers over massive AI training for OpenAI - Losing inference demand risks clients moving to AWS/GCP - MSFT taking bet that industry overbuild will lead to more attractive leasing terms in future vs owning - OpenAI chases AGI; MSFT chases scalable, affordable AI that drives Azure adoption - Leadership is risk adjusted - they win if OpenAI succeeds, and win if open-source wins

MichaelZuo 2y ago
If they are taking the bet that industry will overbuild, how is it not a canary in a coal mine? There is almost certainly at least one person in Redmond working on this that’s smarter and better informed than you, just going off probability.
- outside1234 2y ago
  Or that person is this person
- snapcaster 2y ago
  >There is almost certainly at least one person in Redmond working on this that’s smarter and better informed than you, just going off probability. this isn't the actual test though right? it's surely true, and yet companies make bad decisions all the time. It needs to be conditioned on "someone smarter and better informed than you _with influence in the organization sufficient to enact change_"
  - protocolture 2y ago
    Yeah the guy who designed the Courier for Microsoft was smarter and better informed than me, the problem is he was smarter and better informed than his leadership at microsoft who canned the project in favour of doing nothing, messing around with nokia, and ending up with a watered down product years too late in terms of the surface.
- j45 2y ago
  The usage of Azure in business is something else.
- int_19h 2y ago
  I can tell you for certain about quite a few people like that who are no longer working in Redmond because they have been canned in the last wave of layoffs.
echelon 2y ago
Nailed it. Nadella's commentary is essentially this. Dwarkesh's interview is fantastic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GLSzuYXh6w&t=348s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GLSzuYXh6w&t=348s (timestamp for "where is the value created?" question)
OutOfHere 2y ago
Huh. It has everything to do with OpenAI planning to move away from Microsoft datacenters to its own datacenters.
j45 2y ago
- Improving scale in efficiency of inference / training likely something too. - Existing data-centre footprints might have enough planned hardware swaps. - There might be better places to lease data centers for power. The US, Canada, and others all have perspectives on this.
ksec 2y ago
I think that is the best direction to go. M$ Nadella is great at business strategic decisions. If only there is another great product person at M$ that pushes the design of their software and hardware. Both has gotten a lot better but still not Apple level of polish.
- hackernoops 2y ago
  >Apple level of polish. Absurd claim given the untenable OS release cadence under Tim Cook. "But better than M$" is still undeserving of the lofty implication from "level of polish".
  - zombiwoof 2y ago
    You mean Tim “Apple intelligence” Cook Ha ha
  - anon7000 2y ago
    I’ve used windows and macOS side by side for over a decade, and macOS BY FAR has a greater level of polish than windows, which to this day is relatively unstable. I haven’t had myself or a relative experience an OS-level crash in macOS in like five years years. Meanwhile, troubleshooting a family member’s BSOD is a regular occurrence.
    - sayamqazi 2y ago
      > Apple level of polish - I can't tell if my macbook is charging or not while the lid is closed. There is no light indicator - minimize/maximize buttons are very small given that I am using a the touchpad. I am not saying they are unsuably small but far from ideal. - If I fully deplete the battery. I cannot immediatly turn it on with adapter's power. Why? Every windows laptop can be run with adapter even with a dead battery. > BSOD is a regular occurrence I hate windows as much as the next guy, but are you really getting BSOD in 2025? I like linux and I know its not exactly polished but it offers something as a trade off which neither MacOS nor Windows do.
      - 2y ago
wkat4242 2y ago
Copilot (referring to the M365 one) is not a very great product though. It's clearly been rushed to market before it was even done. Microsoft is soooo afraid they'll miss this boat. But we are stuck with the fallout. And it isn't even that affordable.
- mhh__ 2y ago
  As with every other Microsoft business product it's a name with no ideology. No sense of what and what not to do.
- bearjaws 2y ago
  Microsoft is a master class in becoming so big you don't need compelling products anymore. You are in their ecosystem, you will use their products. It took them 12 years to make Teams almost as good as Slack. Azure only has made it this far because its Microsoft, so many of their roll outs have been terrible (looking at you AKS, Cosmos DB). Copilot is used at my wifes company because they get it for free, and it seriously seems like its ChatGPT 3.5 still
  - Spivak 2y ago
    > almost as good as Slack I'm sorry, what?! I will grant you almost as good as Zoom but Teams' actual chat functionality is awful. I can't fathom why they didn't just clone Slack for their chat UX, it would have been less effort and better.
  - fergie 2y ago
    To be fair, they did somehow manage to take over javascript while nobody was looking.
    - ripped_britches 2y ago
      Do you mean the non-product people that designed and wrote typescript?
      - 2y ago
downrightmike 2y ago
AGI (not) confirmed

MichaelZuo 2y ago

If they are taking the bet that industry will overbuild, how is it not a canary in a coal mine? There is almost certainly at least one person in Redmond working on this that’s smarter and better informed than you, just going off probability.

outside1234 2y ago
Or that person is this person
snapcaster 2y ago
>There is almost certainly at least one person in Redmond working on this that’s smarter and better informed than you, just going off probability. this isn't the actual test though right? it's surely true, and yet companies make bad decisions all the time. It needs to be conditioned on "someone smarter and better informed than you _with influence in the organization sufficient to enact change_"
- protocolture 2y ago
  Yeah the guy who designed the Courier for Microsoft was smarter and better informed than me, the problem is he was smarter and better informed than his leadership at microsoft who canned the project in favour of doing nothing, messing around with nokia, and ending up with a watered down product years too late in terms of the surface.
j45 2y ago
The usage of Azure in business is something else.
int_19h 2y ago
I can tell you for certain about quite a few people like that who are no longer working in Redmond because they have been canned in the last wave of layoffs.

echelon 2y ago

Nailed it. Nadella's commentary is essentially this. Dwarkesh's interview is fantastic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GLSzuYXh6w&t=348s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GLSzuYXh6w&t=348s (timestamp for "where is the value created?" question)

OutOfHere 2y ago

Huh. It has everything to do with OpenAI planning to move away from Microsoft datacenters to its own datacenters.

j45 2y ago

- Improving scale in efficiency of inference / training likely something too. - Existing data-centre footprints might have enough planned hardware swaps. - There might be better places to lease data centers for power. The US, Canada, and others all have perspectives on this.

ksec 2y ago

I think that is the best direction to go. M$ Nadella is great at business strategic decisions. If only there is another great product person at M$ that pushes the design of their software and hardware. Both has gotten a lot better but still not Apple level of polish.

hackernoops 2y ago
>Apple level of polish. Absurd claim given the untenable OS release cadence under Tim Cook. "But better than M$" is still undeserving of the lofty implication from "level of polish".
- zombiwoof 2y ago
  You mean Tim “Apple intelligence” Cook Ha ha
- anon7000 2y ago
  I’ve used windows and macOS side by side for over a decade, and macOS BY FAR has a greater level of polish than windows, which to this day is relatively unstable. I haven’t had myself or a relative experience an OS-level crash in macOS in like five years years. Meanwhile, troubleshooting a family member’s BSOD is a regular occurrence.
  - sayamqazi 2y ago
    > Apple level of polish - I can't tell if my macbook is charging or not while the lid is closed. There is no light indicator - minimize/maximize buttons are very small given that I am using a the touchpad. I am not saying they are unsuably small but far from ideal. - If I fully deplete the battery. I cannot immediatly turn it on with adapter's power. Why? Every windows laptop can be run with adapter even with a dead battery. > BSOD is a regular occurrence I hate windows as much as the next guy, but are you really getting BSOD in 2025? I like linux and I know its not exactly polished but it offers something as a trade off which neither MacOS nor Windows do.
    - 2y ago

wkat4242 2y ago

Copilot (referring to the M365 one) is not a very great product though. It's clearly been rushed to market before it was even done. Microsoft is soooo afraid they'll miss this boat. But we are stuck with the fallout. And it isn't even that affordable.

mhh__ 2y ago
As with every other Microsoft business product it's a name with no ideology. No sense of what and what not to do.
bearjaws 2y ago
Microsoft is a master class in becoming so big you don't need compelling products anymore. You are in their ecosystem, you will use their products. It took them 12 years to make Teams almost as good as Slack. Azure only has made it this far because its Microsoft, so many of their roll outs have been terrible (looking at you AKS, Cosmos DB). Copilot is used at my wifes company because they get it for free, and it seriously seems like its ChatGPT 3.5 still
- Spivak 2y ago
  > almost as good as Slack I'm sorry, what?! I will grant you almost as good as Zoom but Teams' actual chat functionality is awful. I can't fathom why they didn't just clone Slack for their chat UX, it would have been less effort and better.
- fergie 2y ago
  To be fair, they did somehow manage to take over javascript while nobody was looking.
  - ripped_britches 2y ago
    Do you mean the non-product people that designed and wrote typescript?
    - 2y ago

downrightmike 2y ago

AGI (not) confirmed