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Time to sort NVDA?

toomuchtodo 2y ago
A fellow degenerate gambler I see. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, trade with caution. Being early is the same as being wrong.
- short_sells_poo 2y ago
  Highly regarded people unite :D More seriously though: unless you have privileged information or have done truly extensive research, do not short stocks. And if you do have privileged information, still don't short stocks because unless you have enough money to defend yourself against insider trading like Musk and it's ilk, it's not going to be worth it. It's perfectly reasonable to determine that a particular high growth stock is not going to perform as well going forward, in which case I'd shift allocation to other, better candidates. Generally, being long equities is a long term positive expected value trade. You don't have to time the market, just be persistent. On the other hand, as you correctly alluded to, shorting equities requires decently precise timing, both on entry and exit.
- bognition 2y ago
  A common hypothesis for why Nvidia is so hot is because they have an effective monopoly on the hardware to train AI models and it requires a crap ton of hardware. With DeepSeek it’s been demonstrated you can get pretty damn for a lot cheaper. I can only imagine that there are tons of investors thinking that it’s better to invest their dollars in undercutting the costs of new models vs investing billions in hardware. The question is, can Nvidia maintain their grip on the market in the face of these pressures. If you think they can’t, then a short position doesn’t seem like that big of a gamble.
  - rangestransform 2y ago
    it’s effectively a software moat wrt. GPU programming, there’s nothing stopping AMD from catching up besides insufficiently deep pockets and engineering culture
    - hedora 2y ago
      Not sure why AMD’s software side gets so much flack these days. For everything other than AI programming, their drivers range from fine to best in class. I have an AMD minipc running linux that I use for steam gaming, light development, etc. The kernel taint bit is off. There is one intel device on the pci/usb buses: wifi/bt, and it’s the only thing with a flaky driver in the system. People have been complaining about my exact issue for something like 10 years, across multiple product generations.
      - rangestransform 2y ago
        Nobody who controls the purse strings cares about the kernel taint bit if their model doesn’t train, if they’re burning developer time debugging drivers, if they have to burn even more dev time switching off of cuda, etc. If AMD really cared about making money, they would’ve sent MI300s to all of the top CS research institutions for free and supported rocm on every single product. Investing any less than nvidia, the trillion dollar behemoth, is just letting big green expand their moat even more.
        hedora 2y ago
        As I said, other than AI. The management made a big bet on crypto when nvidia made a big bet on AI. That didn’t work out all that well in the medium term (it did in the short term), though it gave them runway to take a big chunk of intel’s server market. Whether or not that was a good move, it’s not evidence of some engineering shortcoming.
  - mixmastamyk 2y ago
    A short position is always a gamble, because you could lose more than everything.
dpflan 2y ago
Using “bubble” sort? ;)
- jeyoor 2y ago
  The combination of high and climbing price to earnings ratios for a smaller subset of tech firms, outsize retail investment in tech (cloaked by people buying crypto), and macro environment factors like high interest rates stimulating risky lending has me swapping this bubble toward the top of the list. See further: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250123167/six-out-of-seven-conditions-are-met-for-a-stock-market-bubble-this-strategist-says https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250123167/six...
- HPsquared 2y ago
  Bubble sort is very resource-hungry...
dijit 2y ago
I think its probably foolish to short nvidia until theres at least echoes of competition. AMD wants it to be them, but the reality is that the moat is wide. The closest for AI is Apple, but even then, I’m not certain its a serious competitor; especially not in the datacenter. For Gaming there’s practically no worthwhile competition. Unreal Engine barely even fixes render bugs for Intel and AMD cards, and I know this for fact. FD: I’m recently holding shares in nvidia due to the recent fluctuation, and my own belief that the moat is wider than we care to believe, as mentioned.
suraci 2y ago
it's very dangerous, shorting in a market where a gamma squeeze can occur is extremely dangerous other markets s like Taiwan are preferable

Time to sort NVDA?

A fellow degenerate gambler I see. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, trade with caution. Being early is the same as being wrong.

short_sells_poo 2y ago
Highly regarded people unite :D More seriously though: unless you have privileged information or have done truly extensive research, do not short stocks. And if you do have privileged information, still don't short stocks because unless you have enough money to defend yourself against insider trading like Musk and it's ilk, it's not going to be worth it. It's perfectly reasonable to determine that a particular high growth stock is not going to perform as well going forward, in which case I'd shift allocation to other, better candidates. Generally, being long equities is a long term positive expected value trade. You don't have to time the market, just be persistent. On the other hand, as you correctly alluded to, shorting equities requires decently precise timing, both on entry and exit.
bognition 2y ago
A common hypothesis for why Nvidia is so hot is because they have an effective monopoly on the hardware to train AI models and it requires a crap ton of hardware. With DeepSeek it’s been demonstrated you can get pretty damn for a lot cheaper. I can only imagine that there are tons of investors thinking that it’s better to invest their dollars in undercutting the costs of new models vs investing billions in hardware. The question is, can Nvidia maintain their grip on the market in the face of these pressures. If you think they can’t, then a short position doesn’t seem like that big of a gamble.
- rangestransform 2y ago
  it’s effectively a software moat wrt. GPU programming, there’s nothing stopping AMD from catching up besides insufficiently deep pockets and engineering culture
  - hedora 2y ago
    Not sure why AMD’s software side gets so much flack these days. For everything other than AI programming, their drivers range from fine to best in class. I have an AMD minipc running linux that I use for steam gaming, light development, etc. The kernel taint bit is off. There is one intel device on the pci/usb buses: wifi/bt, and it’s the only thing with a flaky driver in the system. People have been complaining about my exact issue for something like 10 years, across multiple product generations.
    - rangestransform 2y ago
      Nobody who controls the purse strings cares about the kernel taint bit if their model doesn’t train, if they’re burning developer time debugging drivers, if they have to burn even more dev time switching off of cuda, etc. If AMD really cared about making money, they would’ve sent MI300s to all of the top CS research institutions for free and supported rocm on every single product. Investing any less than nvidia, the trillion dollar behemoth, is just letting big green expand their moat even more.
      - hedora 2y ago
        As I said, other than AI. The management made a big bet on crypto when nvidia made a big bet on AI. That didn’t work out all that well in the medium term (it did in the short term), though it gave them runway to take a big chunk of intel’s server market. Whether or not that was a good move, it’s not evidence of some engineering shortcoming.
- mixmastamyk 2y ago
  A short position is always a gamble, because you could lose more than everything.

dpflan 2y ago

Using “bubble” sort? ;)

jeyoor 2y ago
The combination of high and climbing price to earnings ratios for a smaller subset of tech firms, outsize retail investment in tech (cloaked by people buying crypto), and macro environment factors like high interest rates stimulating risky lending has me swapping this bubble toward the top of the list. See further: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250123167/six-out-of-seven-conditions-are-met-for-a-stock-market-bubble-this-strategist-says https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250123167/six...
HPsquared 2y ago
Bubble sort is very resource-hungry...

dijit 2y ago

I think its probably foolish to short nvidia until theres at least echoes of competition. AMD wants it to be them, but the reality is that the moat is wide. The closest for AI is Apple, but even then, I’m not certain its a serious competitor; especially not in the datacenter. For Gaming there’s practically no worthwhile competition. Unreal Engine barely even fixes render bugs for Intel and AMD cards, and I know this for fact. FD: I’m recently holding shares in nvidia due to the recent fluctuation, and my own belief that the moat is wider than we care to believe, as mentioned.

suraci 2y ago

it's very dangerous, shorting in a market where a gamma squeeze can occur is extremely dangerous other markets s like Taiwan are preferable