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I'm not convinced LLMs will evolve into general AI. The promises that it's just around the corner feels increasingly like a big scam.

petesergeant 2y ago
Depends what you mean by evolve. I don't think we'll get general AI by simply scaling LLMs, but I think general AI, if it arrives, will be able to trace its lineage very much back to LLMs. Journeys through the embedding space very much feel like the way forward to me, and that's what LLMs are.
- giardini 2y ago
  Embedding spaces are one thing, LLMs are quite another. I believe the former are understandable and likely a part of true AGI but the latter a series of hacks, at worst a red herring leading us off the proper track into a deadend.
- boppo1 2y ago
  Is there a resource I can use to understand the difference between embedding space and latent space?
kristopolous 2y ago
I was never on board with it. It feels like the same step change google was - there was a time when it was just miles ahead of everything else out there around 1998. The first time you used it, it was like "geez, you got it right, didn't know that was possible". It's big, changed things, but wasn't an end of history event a bunch of people are utterly convinced this is.
brookst 2y ago
I mean it’s been a couple of years! It may or may not happen but “scam” means intentional deceit. I don’t think anyone actually knows where LLMs are going with enough certainty to use that pejorative.
- krupan 2y ago
  Is it intentional deceit to tell everyone it's leading to something when, as you correctly point out, nobody actually knows if it will?
  - lazystar 2y ago
    when their stock price rises because of their words, yes.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  >“scam” means intentional deceit. Yes. I'm pretty sure any engineer working on this knows it's not "a few years away". But it doesn't stop product teams from taking adcvantadge of the hype cycle. Hence, "use deception to deprive (someone) of money or possessions.".
  - fragmede 2y ago
    I'm equally sure there are true believers who've drunk the Kool-aid and really believe AGI is right around the corner, just need to fix a few bugs and wait just a few more generations of Moore's law. What difference does the beliefs of a nameless engineer at an AI company make?
    - johnnyanmac 2y ago
      >What difference does the beliefs of a nameless engineer at an AI company make? Hopefully a manager and proper task scheduling. If I made these promises every sprint and kept saying "yea the task is only a week away from completion!" I'd be fired unless I fell down the rabbit hole to Alice in Wonderland. I'm using good faith to assume a lot of those AI engineers are smarter and better schedulers than I am. But that's what managers and proper scoping and perspective is for. Maybe they're okay with that, but I'd wager any profit motivated company would not keep exploring unless the gains are enormous.
      - fragmede 2y ago
blitzar 2y ago
We just need a little more of your (not mine) money to get there. Would I lie to you for $100 billion?

petesergeant 2y ago

Depends what you mean by evolve. I don't think we'll get general AI by simply scaling LLMs, but I think general AI, if it arrives, will be able to trace its lineage very much back to LLMs. Journeys through the embedding space very much feel like the way forward to me, and that's what LLMs are.

giardini 2y ago
Embedding spaces are one thing, LLMs are quite another. I believe the former are understandable and likely a part of true AGI but the latter a series of hacks, at worst a red herring leading us off the proper track into a deadend.
boppo1 2y ago
Is there a resource I can use to understand the difference between embedding space and latent space?

kristopolous 2y ago

I was never on board with it. It feels like the same step change google was - there was a time when it was just miles ahead of everything else out there around 1998. The first time you used it, it was like "geez, you got it right, didn't know that was possible". It's big, changed things, but wasn't an end of history event a bunch of people are utterly convinced this is.

brookst 2y ago

I mean it’s been a couple of years! It may or may not happen but “scam” means intentional deceit. I don’t think anyone actually knows where LLMs are going with enough certainty to use that pejorative.

krupan 2y ago
Is it intentional deceit to tell everyone it's leading to something when, as you correctly point out, nobody actually knows if it will?
- lazystar 2y ago
  when their stock price rises because of their words, yes.
johnnyanmac 2y ago
>“scam” means intentional deceit. Yes. I'm pretty sure any engineer working on this knows it's not "a few years away". But it doesn't stop product teams from taking adcvantadge of the hype cycle. Hence, "use deception to deprive (someone) of money or possessions.".
- fragmede 2y ago
  I'm equally sure there are true believers who've drunk the Kool-aid and really believe AGI is right around the corner, just need to fix a few bugs and wait just a few more generations of Moore's law. What difference does the beliefs of a nameless engineer at an AI company make?
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    >What difference does the beliefs of a nameless engineer at an AI company make? Hopefully a manager and proper task scheduling. If I made these promises every sprint and kept saying "yea the task is only a week away from completion!" I'd be fired unless I fell down the rabbit hole to Alice in Wonderland. I'm using good faith to assume a lot of those AI engineers are smarter and better schedulers than I am. But that's what managers and proper scoping and perspective is for. Maybe they're okay with that, but I'd wager any profit motivated company would not keep exploring unless the gains are enormous.
    - fragmede 2y ago

blitzar 2y ago

We just need a little more of your (not mine) money to get there. Would I lie to you for $100 billion?