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Practically handing the future of automobiles to China. ICE has peaked as a technology; EVs are still nascent. Silly to hold back adoption and growth for nons

Practically handing the future of automobiles to China. ICE has peaked as a technology; EVs are still nascent. Silly to hold back adoption and growth for nonsensical reasons.

InsideOutSanta 2y ago
This was the biggest culture shock the first time I went to China a few years ago. At least half the cars are electric (you can identify them by the license plate). 90% of the electric cars I saw were from brands I'd never seen before. There were at least a dozen different brands that seemed to be super popular. I rode in a bunch of them, and they're all super nice inside, with large screens and well-made interior. Western car brands are about to get a lot of competition.
- 6SixTy 2y ago
  Word is that China makes getting a license plate for an ICE extremely hard to get, while EVs get basically a free pass. I don't know about any direct subsidies but I wouldn't doubt that there's something there.
  - Symbiote 2y ago
    Yes, a former colleague who moved back to Beijing said she'd wait about 18 months for the licence to buy an electric car, but about 5-6 years for an ICE car.
  - insane_dreamer 2y ago
    There were both direct subsidies and policies put in place -- such as the license places (which are otherwise hard to get in major cities like Beijing because of efforts to reduce air pollution which was really bad; so for example, you can only drive your car every other day depending on the last digit of your license place (even/odd). However EVs were exempt from this restriction immediately making them extremely popular and cost-effective.
- canucker2016 2y ago
  Case of Innovator's Dilemma. This YouTube video talks about China's lead in EVs and batteries see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjxKu_WQoBU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjxKu_WQoBU tl;dw: - china - have 3.5x more than global battery capacity need for 2025 - china - evs cost less than ice cars - shenzen - 5-6 yrs ago - transition to 100% ev bus and taxis - china - 2024 - ev & phev - 47.6% of total car sales - 2023 car sales - china: 21.7M, USA 16M, EU 10.6M, JAP 4.7M - 2024 - china owns more than 80% production of every part of battery - TSLA - relies on China for 40% of battery supply chain - massive investment in battery and materials since 2000 - chinese govt vehicles, taxies, buses -> evs - chinese govt - massive incentives for consumers - priority parking, green license plates receive almost immediately for low cost - but only for cars that use chinese batteries - researchers - china spent 200-300 billion on ev subsidies alone - domestic car companies want to milk existing ice technology - car maker's worker unions don't want to ditch ice car manufacturing for possibly less work - local politicians don't want to push car makers, cause disruption The only way out of the quicksand is for each local govt to create a temporary moat and force their local car companies to catch up using local suppliers (who also have to catch up with Chinese component makers). But that's not gonna happen overnight. And those local car companies aren't run by software people - the engineers at the local car companies are probably mech eng trained or finance/marketing types.

Practically handing the future of automobiles to China. ICE has peaked as a technology; EVs are still nascent. Silly to hold back adoption and growth for nonsensical reasons.

InsideOutSanta 2y ago

This was the biggest culture shock the first time I went to China a few years ago. At least half the cars are electric (you can identify them by the license plate). 90% of the electric cars I saw were from brands I'd never seen before. There were at least a dozen different brands that seemed to be super popular. I rode in a bunch of them, and they're all super nice inside, with large screens and well-made interior. Western car brands are about to get a lot of competition.

6SixTy 2y ago
Word is that China makes getting a license plate for an ICE extremely hard to get, while EVs get basically a free pass. I don't know about any direct subsidies but I wouldn't doubt that there's something there.
- Symbiote 2y ago
  Yes, a former colleague who moved back to Beijing said she'd wait about 18 months for the licence to buy an electric car, but about 5-6 years for an ICE car.
- insane_dreamer 2y ago
  There were both direct subsidies and policies put in place -- such as the license places (which are otherwise hard to get in major cities like Beijing because of efforts to reduce air pollution which was really bad; so for example, you can only drive your car every other day depending on the last digit of your license place (even/odd). However EVs were exempt from this restriction immediately making them extremely popular and cost-effective.
canucker2016 2y ago
Case of Innovator's Dilemma. This YouTube video talks about China's lead in EVs and batteries see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjxKu_WQoBU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjxKu_WQoBU tl;dw: - china - have 3.5x more than global battery capacity need for 2025 - china - evs cost less than ice cars - shenzen - 5-6 yrs ago - transition to 100% ev bus and taxis - china - 2024 - ev & phev - 47.6% of total car sales - 2023 car sales - china: 21.7M, USA 16M, EU 10.6M, JAP 4.7M - 2024 - china owns more than 80% production of every part of battery - TSLA - relies on China for 40% of battery supply chain - massive investment in battery and materials since 2000 - chinese govt vehicles, taxies, buses -> evs - chinese govt - massive incentives for consumers - priority parking, green license plates receive almost immediately for low cost - but only for cars that use chinese batteries - researchers - china spent 200-300 billion on ev subsidies alone - domestic car companies want to milk existing ice technology - car maker's worker unions don't want to ditch ice car manufacturing for possibly less work - local politicians don't want to push car makers, cause disruption The only way out of the quicksand is for each local govt to create a temporary moat and force their local car companies to catch up using local suppliers (who also have to catch up with Chinese component makers). But that's not gonna happen overnight. And those local car companies aren't run by software people - the engineers at the local car companies are probably mech eng trained or finance/marketing types.