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Trump was a reality show star, the other people were not. I think you made it too political for HN by bringing up other politicians and concerns about them tha

Trump was a reality show star, the other people were not. I think you made it too political for HN by bringing up other politicians and concerns about them that are irrelevant when talking about the effect reality tv has had.

gjsman-1000 2y ago
No, it’s just a statistical fact. Trump gained 3 million votes post 2020; the Democratic Party lost 6 million. At best, you could say 3 million swung to Trump, and 3 million stayed home. Combine that with the first popular vote victory in 20 years (edit: for a republican candidate), and the quality or perception of the candidate is a statistically likely cause.
- radlad 2y ago
  Huh? Biden won the popular vote in 2020 and Obama in both 2008 and 2012. The only outlier was 2016. (edit: thanks for the clarification.)
  - gjsman-1000 2y ago
    I was talking about Trump, who won the popular vote in 2024 (edit: The first Republican popular vote winner in 20 years), with 4 million less votes than Biden and 3 million votes more than Harris. If you think about it, the story is more about how badly the Democratic Party stumbled, than how well Trump performed. The Democratic Party needs to accept that 6-7 million voters either switched sides or stayed home; and if they want to win again, they must change tactics accordingly.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - radlad 2y ago
      > The Democratic Party needs to accept that 6-7 million voters either switched sides or stayed home; and if they want to win again, they must change tactics accordingly This is true, but it doesn't invalidate grandparent's idea either. Maybe Dems should run a reality show star.
    - tzs 2y ago
      Note that Trump won the popular vote by a plurality, not a majority. Biden had a majority as did Obama both times. Bush also had a majority for his second term.
    - scarface_74 2y ago
      The total number of votes don’t matter. It’s just the votes in the swing states. If 75% of the people in California stay home, it doesn’t matter. They only need to change policy enough to keep from pissing off deep blue states and to flip a few swing states.
    - xerox13ster 2y ago
      Why are you talking about Trump’s vote counts if any mention of a reality TV star in the context of reality TV is too political for Hacker News? You were the first to say that something was too political for Hacker News and yet here you are in this thread, engaging in the most political discussion.
- xyst 2y ago
  A popular vote win by a meager ~1.5% is nothing to cheer about [1]. In 2020, Biden won popular vote by 4.5% [2] Even Hilary got a higher percentage of the popular vote in 2016, by earning 2.1% more over Trump [3] After you consider Republicans have been pushing for voter suppression and purging voter rolls in states for _decades_ [4]. We are just now seeing the effect. I suppose you can say it worked in the 2000 election and subsequent recounts in FL. The laws and regulations around voter rights are not _constitutionally_ guaranteed. So unlike gun rights, voting rights can easily be taken away by the state. [5] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_president... [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_president... [3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_president... [4] https://www.salon.com/2000/12/04/voter_file/ https://www.salon.com/2000/12/04/voter_file/ [5] https://hartmannreport.com/p/democracy-undone-the-texas-placebo-f52 https://hartmannreport.com/p/democracy-undone-the-texas-plac...
  - gjsman-1000 2y ago
    You’re making a critical mistake: Democrats, correctly or not, see voter roll clearing as a vote suppression tactic. (Salon and Wikipedia would certainly say so.) Democrats argue there is no evidence of a large scale organized fraud (no death by machete), so the worry is purely suppressive. Republicans, correctly or not, see voter roll clearing as an election integrity measure for preventing fraud. All it takes is 2% fraud, as you yourself admit, for a victory. Republicans are concerned about slow, minor, unorganized fraud in lots of little places, that might add up to 2% (death by paper cuts). Until a narrative wins, this will continue; and any election victories will be ignored by the other side.
    - tzs 2y ago
      You seem to be overlooking the numerous things other than roll clearing that can make it harder to vote. There are several more in this comment [1], and a large list of references in the comment linked in footnote 5 there. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42935056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42935056
- xerox13ster 2y ago
  You’re making this explicitly political now by brining up vote counts. All the OC did was bring up the effect of reality TV shows on public consciousness. I reinforced that the person mentioned was relevant to their point. You brought up completely unrelated voter turnout of other political figures completely irrelevant to any discussion of Reality TV and when reprimanded have brought up explicit vote counts, completely derailing into the political. This is not appropriate for hacker news, by your own estimation. For shame: your behavior is hypocritical.

gjsman-1000 2y ago

No, it’s just a statistical fact. Trump gained 3 million votes post 2020; the Democratic Party lost 6 million. At best, you could say 3 million swung to Trump, and 3 million stayed home. Combine that with the first popular vote victory in 20 years (edit: for a republican candidate), and the quality or perception of the candidate is a statistically likely cause.

radlad 2y ago
Huh? Biden won the popular vote in 2020 and Obama in both 2008 and 2012. The only outlier was 2016. (edit: thanks for the clarification.)
- gjsman-1000 2y ago
  I was talking about Trump, who won the popular vote in 2024 (edit: The first Republican popular vote winner in 20 years), with 4 million less votes than Biden and 3 million votes more than Harris. If you think about it, the story is more about how badly the Democratic Party stumbled, than how well Trump performed. The Democratic Party needs to accept that 6-7 million voters either switched sides or stayed home; and if they want to win again, they must change tactics accordingly.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - radlad 2y ago
    > The Democratic Party needs to accept that 6-7 million voters either switched sides or stayed home; and if they want to win again, they must change tactics accordingly This is true, but it doesn't invalidate grandparent's idea either. Maybe Dems should run a reality show star.
  - tzs 2y ago
    Note that Trump won the popular vote by a plurality, not a majority. Biden had a majority as did Obama both times. Bush also had a majority for his second term.
  - scarface_74 2y ago
    The total number of votes don’t matter. It’s just the votes in the swing states. If 75% of the people in California stay home, it doesn’t matter. They only need to change policy enough to keep from pissing off deep blue states and to flip a few swing states.
  - xerox13ster 2y ago
    Why are you talking about Trump’s vote counts if any mention of a reality TV star in the context of reality TV is too political for Hacker News? You were the first to say that something was too political for Hacker News and yet here you are in this thread, engaging in the most political discussion.
xyst 2y ago
A popular vote win by a meager ~1.5% is nothing to cheer about [1]. In 2020, Biden won popular vote by 4.5% [2] Even Hilary got a higher percentage of the popular vote in 2016, by earning 2.1% more over Trump [3] After you consider Republicans have been pushing for voter suppression and purging voter rolls in states for _decades_ [4]. We are just now seeing the effect. I suppose you can say it worked in the 2000 election and subsequent recounts in FL. The laws and regulations around voter rights are not _constitutionally_ guaranteed. So unlike gun rights, voting rights can easily be taken away by the state. [5] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_president... [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_president... [3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_president... [4] https://www.salon.com/2000/12/04/voter_file/ https://www.salon.com/2000/12/04/voter_file/ [5] https://hartmannreport.com/p/democracy-undone-the-texas-placebo-f52 https://hartmannreport.com/p/democracy-undone-the-texas-plac...
- gjsman-1000 2y ago
  You’re making a critical mistake: Democrats, correctly or not, see voter roll clearing as a vote suppression tactic. (Salon and Wikipedia would certainly say so.) Democrats argue there is no evidence of a large scale organized fraud (no death by machete), so the worry is purely suppressive. Republicans, correctly or not, see voter roll clearing as an election integrity measure for preventing fraud. All it takes is 2% fraud, as you yourself admit, for a victory. Republicans are concerned about slow, minor, unorganized fraud in lots of little places, that might add up to 2% (death by paper cuts). Until a narrative wins, this will continue; and any election victories will be ignored by the other side.
  - tzs 2y ago
    You seem to be overlooking the numerous things other than roll clearing that can make it harder to vote. There are several more in this comment [1], and a large list of references in the comment linked in footnote 5 there. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42935056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42935056
xerox13ster 2y ago
You’re making this explicitly political now by brining up vote counts. All the OC did was bring up the effect of reality TV shows on public consciousness. I reinforced that the person mentioned was relevant to their point. You brought up completely unrelated voter turnout of other political figures completely irrelevant to any discussion of Reality TV and when reprimanded have brought up explicit vote counts, completely derailing into the political. This is not appropriate for hacker news, by your own estimation. For shame: your behavior is hypocritical.