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All you need to do is proportionally short out Tesla, and keep your portfolio up to date with the SP500 rebalancing to make sure you are aligned. That said, it
by Fade_Dance 2y ago
All you need to do is proportionally short out Tesla, and keep your portfolio up to date with the SP500 rebalancing to make sure you are aligned.
That said, it's probably not a good idea. Think of Index Flows as a container (the index tracking vehicles) with water inside that sloshes around to constituents.
Because there is essentially a mega-trend of migration to low fee Index tracking funds (on many levels, resulting from Global Capital flows being net positive for the U.S. and the intra-U.S. migration from active to passive as well as complexes like the 401k space), the underlying characteristic of market cap weighted funds propping up to Size factor is dominant (the inflows proportionally get directed to the largest constituents).
As shown with Tesla, it can seemingly look a bit arbitrary when it comes to which names float to the top. Take Tesla's case, where a perpetual short squeeze, constant expectation beats, high retail ownership, and extreme upside option activity vaulted the name to extremely high valuation. What most didn't expect, of course, was for Tesla to stay at a $1 trillion market cap. But you have to realize that flows into index funds are consistently positive, and even forces like option flows that were once a volatility enhancer and took liquidity can act like a volatility suppressor under more normal circumstances (depending on if Dealers are long or short gamma/convexity, and they are usually long). So you have a sort of typical case where a name vaults to a high valuation and then pins there, supported by flows, while the water now flows around this large entrenched name and moves around other illiquid names.
Of course this process isn't actually arbitrary, it's just esoteric, and it's a huge part of what trading is today, even compared to 5 years ago. In many ways, the tail wags the dog, so to speak, and when you're looking at something like Tesla's stock price, you're really looking at the derivative of the option positioning. If there is a large block of option open interest on a name, that's now included in all of the trader oriented reports of the name, and nobody is going to want to come in and take a position against these mean reverting flows, somewhat reinforcing that process.
Conversely, traditional active value evaluation is less dominant of a force in the markets than it used to be. Index funds buy big things, and they reinforce momentum factor as well. This is reflected in investor behavior on all levels, including the active fund management space, because you can't fight these forces or you will lose your accounts.
That's not to say that price discovery isn't happening. The saying that markets are voting mechanisms in this short term and weighing mechanisms in the long term still holds true. The short and even mid term movements are less of a random walk combined with animal spirits from sweaty men in trading pits, and is instead a sort of bizarre "gamma vortex" battlefield, and then the long term price moves are increasingly dominated by these distortions from market cap weighted domination. Price discovery works within this cadence, and often happens in short ferocious bursts and sector rotations.
So back to why it's not a good idea. I said that because of the interplay of forces above not because of Tesla's actual valuation or even Tesla's outlook. The moment you step against the index flows, you are taking a negative expected value position. I'm somewhat up to date on markets and am constantly exposed to them during the day, and I've personally lost 1mm on TSLA over the past decade because I refused to let the lessons above really get into my bones ("lost", as other trading positions with opposite exposure have netted out to more than compensate for that, but it's a good anecdote to share here).
In many respects, Tesla's valuation is fairly arbitrary and it represents a sort of token of the strange interplay of forces within the walls of index flows. Unless you specialize in that area, it's probably best to just let it play out. With TSLA in particular your short is very much stepping into an active trade where forces like options flows are running at extremely high heat. If you are buying the S&P 500, you want pure access to these positive megatrends. If you aren't comfortable with it, and I certainly don't blame you, then instead of shorting out Tesla against your index investments, Consider putting some money aside in investments that do not track the index and maybe do something more traditional like small cap value that is perpetually undervalued as a result of these very same index flows. It goes without saying, but these investments will not include Tesla either. I would strongly argue for taking this approach instead of meddling with SP500 weighting. Get your pure SP500 exposure (which is guaranteed to participate in future TSLAs/NVDAs/etc), and then pick something else pure that steps away from the somewhat arbitrary market cap weighting that dominates markets today. In return for stepping away from the crowd flows (which arguably comes at a cost) you are then rewarded in kind by mindfully taking advantage of the lack of interest in certain market factors (again, using SmallCap Value as an example, since there is a rich academic literature on many of these traditional factor areas, but there are many areas with sound academically supported areas which gain steam from stepping against the index forces, ex: part of my cash is permanently in volatility trading that harvests the volatility expansion and contraction cadence within which price discovery happens in modern markets).
- kubb 2y agoThanks for the writeup!