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I'd bet any money that while China might not go in overtly, they'd be the main silent-backers of Thai forces that could go in overtly with fewer objections from

I'd bet any money that while China might not go in overtly, they'd be the main silent-backers of Thai forces that could go in overtly with fewer objections from abroad. (Or, maybe it'd be more accurate to say that, the Thais wouldn't care as much about the objections from abroad as the Chinese would?) It could even be that everyone is misjudging the asians entirely? And it's bad enough that at even the slightest provocation from the warlords, we'll see Thai and Chinese troops flood in. Consequences be damned. This would be the worst outcome for the rest of the world, but probably the best outcome for the people currently being terrorized and held hostage by these thugs. I just hope it doesn't get to that point.

petesergeant 2y ago
> the Thais wouldn't care as much about the objections from abroad as the Chinese That is absolutely not how Thailand works. If Thailand does anything, it’ll be exclusively on the Thai side of the border.
throaway1989 2y ago
If China does anything it will be in support of the Tatmadaw, either overtly or covertly.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- alephnerd 2y ago
  The Tatmadaw isn't a unified force either anymore. It's got it's own factions, and mid-level leadership (especially the farther out you get from Naypyidaw) allies with China, Thailand, or India.
  - throaway1989 2y ago
    That's interesting, do you have any links to the different factions in the Tat right now?
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      Sadly, not off the top of my head. (Edit: here you go. An overview from 2021 by the Tea Circle group formerly at St Anthony's College, Oxford but now at UToronto Munk - https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-coup-narratives-and-tatmadaw-factionalism/ https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-...) A lot of this came up in a meetup I participated in a couple years ago at HKS. But at a high level, you'll see Chinese weapon sales [0] happen at the same time as Indian weapon sales [1] to the Tatmadaw, despite both China and India directly competing with each other. Sadly, Myanmar was always a basket case because the British ignored it when it was British India and later British Burma, so outside the Bamar core, the state never truly existed on the ground. And after the 2020 China-India standoff, Myanmar became even more of a conflict zone because at it's shortest it's a 40 mile buffer zone between Assam and Yunnan. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-sending-deadly-aid-myanmars-military-2023-05-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-se... [1] - https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-military-with-arms/a-65733102 https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-milit...
  - v3ss0n 2y ago
    It still is a unified force but crippling house of cards now. Thy are losing and massacring civilization In retaliation on those liberated areas using 500lb bombs. Lost of civilians deaths on those areas there's aren't any conflicts. But many of them are in people side and spying for revolution forces.
csomar 2y ago
Thailand is not invading Myanmar for China, they are pretty conservative when it comes to such politics.
- walterbell 2y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 > Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on a visit to Beijing earlier this month told Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Thailand would crack down on the scam networks. Just ahead of her visit, Thailand cut off electricity, internet and gas supplies to several areas in Myanmar.. Thailand wants to cooperate with China since reports about scam workers being trafficked through Thailand have circulated widely on Chinese social media. The Thai government and others fear it will discourage the lucrative market of inbound Chinese tourists.

petesergeant 2y ago

> the Thais wouldn't care as much about the objections from abroad as the Chinese That is absolutely not how Thailand works. If Thailand does anything, it’ll be exclusively on the Thai side of the border.

throaway1989 2y ago

If China does anything it will be in support of the Tatmadaw, either overtly or covertly.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
alephnerd 2y ago
The Tatmadaw isn't a unified force either anymore. It's got it's own factions, and mid-level leadership (especially the farther out you get from Naypyidaw) allies with China, Thailand, or India.
- throaway1989 2y ago
  That's interesting, do you have any links to the different factions in the Tat right now?
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Sadly, not off the top of my head. (Edit: here you go. An overview from 2021 by the Tea Circle group formerly at St Anthony's College, Oxford but now at UToronto Munk - https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-coup-narratives-and-tatmadaw-factionalism/ https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-...) A lot of this came up in a meetup I participated in a couple years ago at HKS. But at a high level, you'll see Chinese weapon sales [0] happen at the same time as Indian weapon sales [1] to the Tatmadaw, despite both China and India directly competing with each other. Sadly, Myanmar was always a basket case because the British ignored it when it was British India and later British Burma, so outside the Bamar core, the state never truly existed on the ground. And after the 2020 China-India standoff, Myanmar became even more of a conflict zone because at it's shortest it's a 40 mile buffer zone between Assam and Yunnan. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-sending-deadly-aid-myanmars-military-2023-05-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-se... [1] - https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-military-with-arms/a-65733102 https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-milit...
- v3ss0n 2y ago
  It still is a unified force but crippling house of cards now. Thy are losing and massacring civilization In retaliation on those liberated areas using 500lb bombs. Lost of civilians deaths on those areas there's aren't any conflicts. But many of them are in people side and spying for revolution forces.

csomar 2y ago

Thailand is not invading Myanmar for China, they are pretty conservative when it comes to such politics.

walterbell 2y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 > Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on a visit to Beijing earlier this month told Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Thailand would crack down on the scam networks. Just ahead of her visit, Thailand cut off electricity, internet and gas supplies to several areas in Myanmar.. Thailand wants to cooperate with China since reports about scam workers being trafficked through Thailand have circulated widely on Chinese social media. The Thai government and others fear it will discourage the lucrative market of inbound Chinese tourists.