4 ms·

Better just short all legacy automotive and include Tesla in that group, but at that point you have to wonder about these economies more generally. Tesla is fal

by themgt 2y ago

Better just short all legacy automotive and include Tesla in that group, but at that point you have to wonder about these economies more generally. Tesla is falling behind but the rest of these companies are barely even in the game. The idea that Laotians and Chileans will all have $10k self-driving BYD sedans to complement their $10k Unitree robot servants while "the west" drives Toyota Corollas with v6 engines and folds their own laundry out of the dryer ... doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

frodo8sam 2y ago
Shorting is often a bad strategy due to the hight cost if you plan to hold for the long term. And with these companies with irrational evaluations you gave no idea when the stock price will correct. Better to exlude stocks that you can't price accurately from your portefolio.
- Imustaskforhelp 2y ago
  but then it moves us away from index fund.
jmyeet 2y ago
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes Tesla simply shouldn't be a $1T company and that's been true for some time. Last year they sold ~1.8M vehicles in 2024 (down 1.1% from 2023), which values the company at roughly $600k per car sold. GM has a market cap of $46B and sold roughly 3 times as many cars and that was an increase over 2023. That values GM at under $10k per car sold in 2024. Consider Tesla sales by country [1]. A large chunk of those sales were in China. Those will get eaten by BYD and others. That says nothing about Tesla. The Chinese government always plays favorites with local companies. There is no "winning" in China for foreign companies. Tesla relies on trade barriers to exist. In the US, Europe and Australia, the floodgates could open to much more affordable EVs from China. Even if they can survive that, it'll drive down average selling prices. The Supercharger network is a competitive advantage but one with a ticking clock on it. On top of all this, Elon's personal politics hurt him most with the very people who are most inclined to buy EVs: people who live in cities and care about the enviroment. The American government tends to protect large American companies so maybe Tesla is a safe bet. But you're betting this administration or a later one not having a falling out with Elon or simply eviscerating the EV market because it's "woke". We're already getting rid of Biden's EV tax credit. That's going to hurt Tesla too. [1]: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/tesla-sales-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/tesla-sal...
- jajko 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - IlikeKitties 2y ago
    > Any European who still buys any product from musk is either direct fascist supporter or totally oblivious POS. I can't use nicer terms. And you don't have to Nazi Salutes and 14 Word References on Twitter by Elon are more than enough to legitimize your opinion.
  - 127 2y ago
    I don't think Musk has any ideology outside amassing as much money and adoration as possible, while spinelessly saying anything and everything that gets him to that goal. He's a professional larper with no morals or ethics.
    - bmicraft 2y ago
      That's no better either
  - madmask 2y ago
    I am considering buying a used one, prices are very low now. And if someone messes up with it they better run fast
  - realusername 2y ago
    I estimate that there's a good 50% chance that Tesla will be banned in the EU anyways. If a trade war is started by Trump, Musk properties are a prime retaliation target by the EU. You can't hit any closer to the president than that.
    - bmicraft 2y ago
      The EU isn't generally in the business of banning specific things, it's usually a more nuanced systematic approach.

by themgt 2y ago

frodo8sam 2y ago

Shorting is often a bad strategy due to the hight cost if you plan to hold for the long term. And with these companies with irrational evaluations you gave no idea when the stock price will correct. Better to exlude stocks that you can't price accurately from your portefolio.

Imustaskforhelp 2y ago
but then it moves us away from index fund.

jmyeet 2y ago

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes Tesla simply shouldn't be a $1T company and that's been true for some time. Last year they sold ~1.8M vehicles in 2024 (down 1.1% from 2023), which values the company at roughly $600k per car sold. GM has a market cap of $46B and sold roughly 3 times as many cars and that was an increase over 2023. That values GM at under $10k per car sold in 2024. Consider Tesla sales by country [1]. A large chunk of those sales were in China. Those will get eaten by BYD and others. That says nothing about Tesla. The Chinese government always plays favorites with local companies. There is no "winning" in China for foreign companies. Tesla relies on trade barriers to exist. In the US, Europe and Australia, the floodgates could open to much more affordable EVs from China. Even if they can survive that, it'll drive down average selling prices. The Supercharger network is a competitive advantage but one with a ticking clock on it. On top of all this, Elon's personal politics hurt him most with the very people who are most inclined to buy EVs: people who live in cities and care about the enviroment. The American government tends to protect large American companies so maybe Tesla is a safe bet. But you're betting this administration or a later one not having a falling out with Elon or simply eviscerating the EV market because it's "woke". We're already getting rid of Biden's EV tax credit. That's going to hurt Tesla too. [1]: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/tesla-sales-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/tesla-sal...

jajko 2y ago
[flagged]
- IlikeKitties 2y ago
  > Any European who still buys any product from musk is either direct fascist supporter or totally oblivious POS. I can't use nicer terms. And you don't have to Nazi Salutes and 14 Word References on Twitter by Elon are more than enough to legitimize your opinion.
- 127 2y ago
  I don't think Musk has any ideology outside amassing as much money and adoration as possible, while spinelessly saying anything and everything that gets him to that goal. He's a professional larper with no morals or ethics.
  - bmicraft 2y ago
    That's no better either
- madmask 2y ago
  I am considering buying a used one, prices are very low now. And if someone messes up with it they better run fast
- realusername 2y ago
  I estimate that there's a good 50% chance that Tesla will be banned in the EU anyways. If a trade war is started by Trump, Musk properties are a prime retaliation target by the EU. You can't hit any closer to the president than that.
  - bmicraft 2y ago
    The EU isn't generally in the business of banning specific things, it's usually a more nuanced systematic approach.