5 ms·

I wonder if things deteriorate into a failed state China will intervene. They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia. But who knows America and India will probably

I wonder if things deteriorate into a failed state China will intervene. They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia. But who knows America and India will probably go ape shit.

odiroot 2y ago
> They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia. You mean the Third Indochina War? It wasn't really about Cambodia being a failed state but a far consequence of a Sino-Soviet split.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  That overstates the Soviet aspect and severely understates the Vietnamese aspect. For Vietnam, Cambodia is their near abroad. Saigon is barely 20 miles away from Cambodia, and the Mekong is the lifeblood of Southern Vietnam, and Cambodian factions (the same ones the Chinese backed in the 1970s) had supported anti-Vietnamese insurgencies in Gia Lai. Cambodia and Laos became a buffer state for China+Thailand and Vietnam the same way Myanmar has become one for China, Thailand, and India.
bilbo0s 2y ago
I'd bet any money that while China might not go in overtly, they'd be the main silent-backers of Thai forces that could go in overtly with fewer objections from abroad. (Or, maybe it'd be more accurate to say that, the Thais wouldn't care as much about the objections from abroad as the Chinese would?) It could even be that everyone is misjudging the asians entirely? And it's bad enough that at even the slightest provocation from the warlords, we'll see Thai and Chinese troops flood in. Consequences be damned. This would be the worst outcome for the rest of the world, but probably the best outcome for the people currently being terrorized and held hostage by these thugs. I just hope it doesn't get to that point.
- petesergeant 2y ago
  > the Thais wouldn't care as much about the objections from abroad as the Chinese That is absolutely not how Thailand works. If Thailand does anything, it’ll be exclusively on the Thai side of the border.
- throaway1989 2y ago
  If China does anything it will be in support of the Tatmadaw, either overtly or covertly.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    The Tatmadaw isn't a unified force either anymore. It's got it's own factions, and mid-level leadership (especially the farther out you get from Naypyidaw) allies with China, Thailand, or India.
    - throaway1989 2y ago
      That's interesting, do you have any links to the different factions in the Tat right now?
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        Sadly, not off the top of my head. (Edit: here you go. An overview from 2021 by the Tea Circle group formerly at St Anthony's College, Oxford but now at UToronto Munk - https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-coup-narratives-and-tatmadaw-factionalism/ https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-...) A lot of this came up in a meetup I participated in a couple years ago at HKS. But at a high level, you'll see Chinese weapon sales [0] happen at the same time as Indian weapon sales [1] to the Tatmadaw, despite both China and India directly competing with each other. Sadly, Myanmar was always a basket case because the British ignored it when it was British India and later British Burma, so outside the Bamar core, the state never truly existed on the ground. And after the 2020 China-India standoff, Myanmar became even more of a conflict zone because at it's shortest it's a 40 mile buffer zone between Assam and Yunnan. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-sending-deadly-aid-myanmars-military-2023-05-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-se... [1] - https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-military-with-arms/a-65733102 https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-milit...
- csomar 2y ago
  Thailand is not invading Myanmar for China, they are pretty conservative when it comes to such politics.
  - walterbell 2y ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 > Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on a visit to Beijing earlier this month told Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Thailand would crack down on the scam networks. Just ahead of her visit, Thailand cut off electricity, internet and gas supplies to several areas in Myanmar.. Thailand wants to cooperate with China since reports about scam workers being trafficked through Thailand have circulated widely on Chinese social media. The Thai government and others fear it will discourage the lucrative market of inbound Chinese tourists.
thuanao 2y ago
Deteriorate? Myanmar has been a failed state for 60 years. To give you an idea of what I mean, their current and previous dictators consult witch doctors for their decisions, and the largest city of 5 million doesn’t have continuous electricity. One of the many ongoing wars in Myanmar, The Karen conflict, is one of the longest-running armed conflicts in the world. Myanmar has been a total mess since end of WWII.
- throw__away7391 2y ago
  Meh, witch doctors or pastors, pick your poison.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    Don't worry. Plenty of the rebel groups consult with Southern Baptist pastors - especially in Chin State and Saigang.
    - which 2y ago
      Do policy people see any light at the end of the tunnel for Myanmar? I feel like we just need to give intelligence + a couple billion in weapons to a Burmese version of Dostum. Make it a condition of receiving aid that scammers are ruthlessly cracked down on/sent back to China. Form a coalition with other EAOs that matter, sort of like the Northern Alliance, and take over Tatmadaw controlled cities one by one. Then get some highly decentralized federalism in place (draw the rest of the owl).
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        > Do policy people see any light at the end of the tunnel for Myanmar Depends on where those policy people are from. I'm American but my extended family is in the Dogra Regiment (IYKYK - and also why I haven't been nominated as an [or is it "a", me fail Eng.i.mean.phonetics after a couple Blantons] SES for US-India relations over the past 15ish years), so I have absolutely no hope. Myanmar has become yet another battlefield for China and India to flex, and it's millions of innocent civilians who face the brunt of this little d** syndrome. My friends who haven't been purged by DOGE or are doing the purging on behalf of DOGE don't know these intricacies. And this pisses me off. There are millions of innocent civilians facing rape, human trafficking, murder, and ethnic cleansing because a couple limp d**s in Naypawday, Kunming, Imphal, and Bangkok couldn't care enough to negotiate a true path to peace. > I feel like we just need to give intelligence + a couple billion in weapons to a Burmese version of Dostum There are like 50 Dostums in Myanmar. If you ever followed a "true" history of the Afghan Civil War, you'd see the same situation arise in the 1990s. Both Pakistan and India would fund their favorite warlords with weapons and rupees (my mom went to college with Hamid Karzai), and give their families asylum (if you want Ahmad Shah Massoud's [0] family's address in Delhi-3 I gotchu). China, Thailand, and India are doing the same thing in Myanmar (and did the same thing 30 years ago). > Then get some highly decentralized federalism in place (draw the rest of the owl). And then Cls like my Phuphar in the Dogras would bribe (or put a bullet in) them to make sure they don't flip to the Chinese, and it becomes Libya or Congo 2.0 because the equivalent in China or Thailand is 100% doing the same. > Form a coalition with other EAOs that matter, sort of like the Northern Alliance, and take over Tatmadaw controlled cities one by one. Some EAOs are funded by China. Others by India. And others by Thailand. For all intents and purposes, none of these countries view Myanmar as a "real" country, and are working on splitting it up amongst the EAOs they are funding (or honeytrapped). [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Shah_Massoud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Shah_Massoud
alephnerd 2y ago
> I wonder if things deteriorate into a failed state Myanmar is basically a Southeast Asian version of Congo. All the neighboring countries (China, India, Thailand) have already de facto intervened by maintaining relations with and arming regional warlords, and "their" guys in the Tatmadaw. For example, - China and the MDNAA [0] and the Wa State [1], and their "Goma" is Muse and Mongla - India and the ethnic Chin opposition [2][3] and the Arakan Army [4] (the guys who did the Rohingya Genocide - they flipped from China to India in 23-24), and their "Goma" is Tamu and Sittwe. - Thailand's Military Government's continued support of the Myanmar Tatmadaw [5], and their "Goma" is Myawaddy, Payathonzhu, Shwekoko (the city mentioned above), and Mawdaung. China, India, and Thailand are all enabling the worst actors in Myanmar's civil war, and it's the civilians that lose. > They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia Which sparked a regional war with Vietnam in 1979, and multiple coups and counter-coups by Chinese and Vietnamese backed factions in Cambodia and Laos. If Cambodia and Laos was chaotic, Myanmar will be 1,000 times worse, because several ethnic groups in Myanmar have large (1mil+) populations in both China and India, so the risk of regional contagion is massive, and has already started in Manipur [6]. [0] - https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/08/myanmars-junta-loses-control-north-chinas-influence-grows https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/08/myanmars-junta-los... [1] - https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/ethnic-issues/wa-state-aims-to-boost-economy-through-chinese-projects.html https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/ethnic-issues/wa-state-aims-t... [2] - https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/chinland-council-and-chin-brotherhood-alliance-hold-talks-india https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/chinland-council-and-chin-... [3] - https://theprint.in/india/chin-rebel-leader-lauds-indias-help-to-myanmar-civilians-bats-for-political-solution-to-end-strife/1873904/?amp https://theprint.in/india/chin-rebel-leader-lauds-indias-hel... [4] - https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/is-india-finally-waking-up-to-a-new-reality-in-western-myanmar/ https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/is-india-finally-waking-up-t... [5] - https://r2pasiapacific.org/files/8231/2022_Thai_response_myanmar_crisis.pdf https://r2pasiapacific.org/files/8231/2022_Thai_response_mya... [6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fighters-myanmar-civil-war-aggravate-bitter-ethnic-conflict-india-2024-12-20/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fighters-myanmar-civil-w...
- which 2y ago
  Well in all fairness to China/India, they might prefer to work with a legitimate government, but the legitimate government of Myanmar (when it existed) has always been completely dysfunctional. It also has never really exercised any control of the borderlands, which are where rebel groups like those in Manipur often congregate. Even prior to the development of the scam industry, out of work Chinese in provinces like Yunnan would often seek opportunity in the more well run EAO quasi-states. There are well-maintained paved roads in Pangkham, which can't be said for much of the country.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> if things deteriorate into a failed state China will intervene China and Thailand are conducting policing operations in Burmese territory, it’s already a failed state.
- v3ss0n 2y ago
  Yes it is currently at a civil war and failed state.
wraptile 2y ago
Don't get fooled - these are _Chinese_ scam centers in Myanmar. Before they were scam centers it was a casino complex for Chinese until Covid blocked all the customers. There are also versions of this in Laos and Cambodia that nobody really talks about yet.
walrus01 2y ago
The Myanmar junta is already a failed state and a client state of China, they're highly dependent on them. If the people running things in Beijing weren't OK with that junta, it wouldn't be in power right now.

I wonder if things deteriorate into a failed state China will intervene. They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia. But who knows America and India will probably go ape shit.

odiroot 2y ago

> They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia. You mean the Third Indochina War? It wasn't really about Cambodia being a failed state but a far consequence of a Sino-Soviet split.

alephnerd 2y ago
That overstates the Soviet aspect and severely understates the Vietnamese aspect. For Vietnam, Cambodia is their near abroad. Saigon is barely 20 miles away from Cambodia, and the Mekong is the lifeblood of Southern Vietnam, and Cambodian factions (the same ones the Chinese backed in the 1970s) had supported anti-Vietnamese insurgencies in Gia Lai. Cambodia and Laos became a buffer state for China+Thailand and Vietnam the same way Myanmar has become one for China, Thailand, and India.

bilbo0s 2y ago

I'd bet any money that while China might not go in overtly, they'd be the main silent-backers of Thai forces that could go in overtly with fewer objections from abroad. (Or, maybe it'd be more accurate to say that, the Thais wouldn't care as much about the objections from abroad as the Chinese would?) It could even be that everyone is misjudging the asians entirely? And it's bad enough that at even the slightest provocation from the warlords, we'll see Thai and Chinese troops flood in. Consequences be damned. This would be the worst outcome for the rest of the world, but probably the best outcome for the people currently being terrorized and held hostage by these thugs. I just hope it doesn't get to that point.

petesergeant 2y ago
> the Thais wouldn't care as much about the objections from abroad as the Chinese That is absolutely not how Thailand works. If Thailand does anything, it’ll be exclusively on the Thai side of the border.
throaway1989 2y ago
If China does anything it will be in support of the Tatmadaw, either overtly or covertly.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- alephnerd 2y ago
  The Tatmadaw isn't a unified force either anymore. It's got it's own factions, and mid-level leadership (especially the farther out you get from Naypyidaw) allies with China, Thailand, or India.
  - throaway1989 2y ago
    That's interesting, do you have any links to the different factions in the Tat right now?
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      Sadly, not off the top of my head. (Edit: here you go. An overview from 2021 by the Tea Circle group formerly at St Anthony's College, Oxford but now at UToronto Munk - https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-coup-narratives-and-tatmadaw-factionalism/ https://teacircleoxford.com/politics/peering-under-the-hood-...) A lot of this came up in a meetup I participated in a couple years ago at HKS. But at a high level, you'll see Chinese weapon sales [0] happen at the same time as Indian weapon sales [1] to the Tatmadaw, despite both China and India directly competing with each other. Sadly, Myanmar was always a basket case because the British ignored it when it was British India and later British Burma, so outside the Bamar core, the state never truly existed on the ground. And after the 2020 China-India standoff, Myanmar became even more of a conflict zone because at it's shortest it's a 40 mile buffer zone between Assam and Yunnan. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-sending-deadly-aid-myanmars-military-2023-05-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/un-expert-says-russia-china-se... [1] - https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-military-with-arms/a-65733102 https://amp.dw.com/en/how-india-is-supporting-myanmars-milit...
csomar 2y ago
Thailand is not invading Myanmar for China, they are pretty conservative when it comes to such politics.
- walterbell 2y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43150897 > Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on a visit to Beijing earlier this month told Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Thailand would crack down on the scam networks. Just ahead of her visit, Thailand cut off electricity, internet and gas supplies to several areas in Myanmar.. Thailand wants to cooperate with China since reports about scam workers being trafficked through Thailand have circulated widely on Chinese social media. The Thai government and others fear it will discourage the lucrative market of inbound Chinese tourists.

thuanao 2y ago

Deteriorate? Myanmar has been a failed state for 60 years. To give you an idea of what I mean, their current and previous dictators consult witch doctors for their decisions, and the largest city of 5 million doesn’t have continuous electricity. One of the many ongoing wars in Myanmar, The Karen conflict, is one of the longest-running armed conflicts in the world. Myanmar has been a total mess since end of WWII.

throw__away7391 2y ago
Meh, witch doctors or pastors, pick your poison.
- alephnerd 2y ago
  Don't worry. Plenty of the rebel groups consult with Southern Baptist pastors - especially in Chin State and Saigang.
  - which 2y ago
    Do policy people see any light at the end of the tunnel for Myanmar? I feel like we just need to give intelligence + a couple billion in weapons to a Burmese version of Dostum. Make it a condition of receiving aid that scammers are ruthlessly cracked down on/sent back to China. Form a coalition with other EAOs that matter, sort of like the Northern Alliance, and take over Tatmadaw controlled cities one by one. Then get some highly decentralized federalism in place (draw the rest of the owl).
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > Do policy people see any light at the end of the tunnel for Myanmar Depends on where those policy people are from. I'm American but my extended family is in the Dogra Regiment (IYKYK - and also why I haven't been nominated as an [or is it "a", me fail Eng.i.mean.phonetics after a couple Blantons] SES for US-India relations over the past 15ish years), so I have absolutely no hope. Myanmar has become yet another battlefield for China and India to flex, and it's millions of innocent civilians who face the brunt of this little d** syndrome. My friends who haven't been purged by DOGE or are doing the purging on behalf of DOGE don't know these intricacies. And this pisses me off. There are millions of innocent civilians facing rape, human trafficking, murder, and ethnic cleansing because a couple limp d**s in Naypawday, Kunming, Imphal, and Bangkok couldn't care enough to negotiate a true path to peace. > I feel like we just need to give intelligence + a couple billion in weapons to a Burmese version of Dostum There are like 50 Dostums in Myanmar. If you ever followed a "true" history of the Afghan Civil War, you'd see the same situation arise in the 1990s. Both Pakistan and India would fund their favorite warlords with weapons and rupees (my mom went to college with Hamid Karzai), and give their families asylum (if you want Ahmad Shah Massoud's [0] family's address in Delhi-3 I gotchu). China, Thailand, and India are doing the same thing in Myanmar (and did the same thing 30 years ago). > Then get some highly decentralized federalism in place (draw the rest of the owl). And then Cls like my Phuphar in the Dogras would bribe (or put a bullet in) them to make sure they don't flip to the Chinese, and it becomes Libya or Congo 2.0 because the equivalent in China or Thailand is 100% doing the same. > Form a coalition with other EAOs that matter, sort of like the Northern Alliance, and take over Tatmadaw controlled cities one by one. Some EAOs are funded by China. Others by India. And others by Thailand. For all intents and purposes, none of these countries view Myanmar as a "real" country, and are working on splitting it up amongst the EAOs they are funding (or honeytrapped). [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Shah_Massoud https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Shah_Massoud

alephnerd 2y ago

> I wonder if things deteriorate into a failed state Myanmar is basically a Southeast Asian version of Congo. All the neighboring countries (China, India, Thailand) have already de facto intervened by maintaining relations with and arming regional warlords, and "their" guys in the Tatmadaw. For example, - China and the MDNAA [0] and the Wa State [1], and their "Goma" is Muse and Mongla - India and the ethnic Chin opposition [2][3] and the Arakan Army [4] (the guys who did the Rohingya Genocide - they flipped from China to India in 23-24), and their "Goma" is Tamu and Sittwe. - Thailand's Military Government's continued support of the Myanmar Tatmadaw [5], and their "Goma" is Myawaddy, Payathonzhu, Shwekoko (the city mentioned above), and Mawdaung. China, India, and Thailand are all enabling the worst actors in Myanmar's civil war, and it's the civilians that lose. > They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia Which sparked a regional war with Vietnam in 1979, and multiple coups and counter-coups by Chinese and Vietnamese backed factions in Cambodia and Laos. If Cambodia and Laos was chaotic, Myanmar will be 1,000 times worse, because several ethnic groups in Myanmar have large (1mil+) populations in both China and India, so the risk of regional contagion is massive, and has already started in Manipur [6]. [0] - https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/08/myanmars-junta-loses-control-north-chinas-influence-grows https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/08/myanmars-junta-los... [1] - https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/ethnic-issues/wa-state-aims-to-boost-economy-through-chinese-projects.html https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/ethnic-issues/wa-state-aims-t... [2] - https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/chinland-council-and-chin-brotherhood-alliance-hold-talks-india https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/chinland-council-and-chin-... [3] - https://theprint.in/india/chin-rebel-leader-lauds-indias-help-to-myanmar-civilians-bats-for-political-solution-to-end-strife/1873904/?amp https://theprint.in/india/chin-rebel-leader-lauds-indias-hel... [4] - https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/is-india-finally-waking-up-to-a-new-reality-in-western-myanmar/ https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/is-india-finally-waking-up-t... [5] - https://r2pasiapacific.org/files/8231/2022_Thai_response_myanmar_crisis.pdf https://r2pasiapacific.org/files/8231/2022_Thai_response_mya... [6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fighters-myanmar-civil-war-aggravate-bitter-ethnic-conflict-india-2024-12-20/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fighters-myanmar-civil-w...

which 2y ago
Well in all fairness to China/India, they might prefer to work with a legitimate government, but the legitimate government of Myanmar (when it existed) has always been completely dysfunctional. It also has never really exercised any control of the borderlands, which are where rebel groups like those in Manipur often congregate. Even prior to the development of the scam industry, out of work Chinese in provinces like Yunnan would often seek opportunity in the more well run EAO quasi-states. There are well-maintained paved roads in Pangkham, which can't be said for much of the country.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> if things deteriorate into a failed state China will intervene China and Thailand are conducting policing operations in Burmese territory, it’s already a failed state.

v3ss0n 2y ago
Yes it is currently at a civil war and failed state.

wraptile 2y ago

Don't get fooled - these are _Chinese_ scam centers in Myanmar. Before they were scam centers it was a casino complex for Chinese until Covid blocked all the customers. There are also versions of this in Laos and Cambodia that nobody really talks about yet.

walrus01 2y ago

The Myanmar junta is already a failed state and a client state of China, they're highly dependent on them. If the people running things in Beijing weren't OK with that junta, it wouldn't be in power right now.