4 ms·

It's nice not to be finding out now, but I wonder if we could estimate a city killer's track well enough to make it worthwhile to evacuate a major city like Mum

It's nice not to be finding out now, but I wonder if we could estimate a city killer's track well enough to make it worthwhile to evacuate a major city like Mumbai, and if it could be done if needed. And how certain we would have to be to justify an evacuation that would itself be deadly. I'm glad it wouldn't be my call. I've argued here about the importance of becoming multiplanetary and had many people disagree. Even at just a .28% risk of possibly getting hit with a little rock like this, it's a great argument for building a space faring civilization.

BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
We need much better tech; it’d be borderline useless right now cause any colony would be dependent for the foreseeable future.
- ericd 2y ago
  No better way to quickly develop the myriad tech we need for a colony than making a colony.
  - dartos 2y ago
    Yes there is a better way to develop tech without knowingly sending a group of people to their deaths. We could throw 100s of billions of dollars into it. But it’s harder to sell to investors than language models
    - ericd 2y ago
      Ways that have no realistic way of happening aren’t better ways. Obviously we don’t send a group without making it not certain death first. But the person I was responding to said that it would be reliant on Earth, which, yeah, you can’t realistically develop a fully self reliant economy without making a reliant economy first.
      - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
        I have two important questions. My first question is: would you be enthusiastic about the concept of a lunar colony? My second question is: what kinds of things do you think are viable for a colony made within the next 50 years?
        ericd 2y ago
        Lunar seems more convenient for debugging colony creation than Martian, since the shipping time from Earth will be a whole lot shorter. Projects are a lot harder when trips to the hardware store take months rather than days. I think Starship makes colonies a whole lot more viable, once they iron out the issues, but I generally don't know enough to answer your second question.
        dartos 2y ago
        > Projects are a lot harder when trips to the hardware store take months rather than days How long do you think it takes to plan a trip to the moon? > I think Starship makes colonies a whole lot more viable Why?
        ericd 2y ago
        Presumably there’d be regular missions, so there’d be relatively little additional planning for a given moon trip, similar to how there’s a lot less planning/paperwork that goes into a Falcon 9 launch these days than there was for any rocket before Falcon 9. Starship’s goal is to drop cost of mass to orbit by a couple of orders of magnitude, if they pull that off, it would drop the cost of supporting a colony by quite a bit.
        BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
        I’m glad you are into the lunar colony. My biggest issue with the mars colony crowd is their disinterest in a much more practical lunar colony for us to cut our teeth on. Overall I feel like a lot of people are into colonies for aesthetic reasons. If it’s gonna 100-200 years before a colony could be self sustaining, then why are we treating multiplanetaryness as some kind of practical solution to current-day issues that appeared within the last century?
ysofunny 2y ago
before becoming "multiplanetary" we gotta get significantly better and single-planetary management. there is not even a global "we"
- scarfaceneo 2y ago
  Exactly. When people like Musk try and brainwash you into believing “we” should be a multi planetary species, what he means is “they” should be, and “you” should fund it.
  - adastra22 2y ago
    It is fashionable to hate on Musk, sometimes for good reason, but this comment is straight up wrong. From the very beginning SpaceX’s long term business vision has been to enable middle class emigration to Mars.
    - speakfreely 2y ago
      It is not just fashionable, it is downright easy due to his personality. His methods of communication on many topics, particularly political ones, are purposefully misleading and manipulative. But he is 100% correct about the need to become an interplanetary species. On a long enough timeline, it's the only option to keep our future selves in existence. While I'd certainly prefer to have some wholesome, highly decorated astronaut with an honest streak and a perfect temperament be the one who started SpaceX and enabled multi-planetary travel, I still believe it's better that Musk is doing it than no one at all.
    - bdhcuidbebe 2y ago
      > From the very beginning SpaceX’s long term business vision has been to enable middle class emigration to Mars. That should have been enough reason for everyone to dismiss Musk, but unfortunatley too many uninformed people in charge. Mars is -60 celcuius on average, and lack an atmosphere. Youd die off cancer from radiation exposure within a year IF you had every other life supporting system in place. Then theres the seasonal explosive eruptions, no soil and countless other reasons this is a moronic enterprise. This aint fashionable, its facts. The sad part is that I think Musk actually knows this but his fans too dumb to see the charlatan for what he is.
energy123 2y ago
The certainty goes from 0 to 1 as it approaches. Given x = time until impact, what does that plot look like?
d0mine 2y ago
Even if large asteroid hits the Earth, the conditions are still better than on Mars.
rafram 2y ago
The Earth is very pretty and comfortable. Mars isn’t. Personally, I’ll opt to ride it out at home, where we have things like trees and oxygen.
- notahacker 2y ago
  Yeah. Sure, a bigger asteroid could cause a lot more problems than this one would if it hit. Ask the dinosaurs. But if you haven't got the tech for humanity to survive the fallout from a big impact on Earth, you don't have the tech to make a viable colony on Mars.
ourmandave 2y ago
I think about all the people who refuse evac orders and ride out hurricanes. Or worse, go down to the beach where huge surges are forecasted. How many would stay in the case of an asteroid?
bdhcuidbebe 2y ago
> I've argued here about the importance of becoming multiplanetary and had many people disagree. Unfortunatley for humankind, there is no second earth to move to. We need to care for the planet we inhabit, as its the only one capable of supporting life in our solar system, and interstellar travel is probably hundreds of years away. Even if we could move elsewhere, the chances any one of us would be rich enough to go there is a rounding error to zero.

BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago

We need much better tech; it’d be borderline useless right now cause any colony would be dependent for the foreseeable future.

ericd 2y ago
No better way to quickly develop the myriad tech we need for a colony than making a colony.
- dartos 2y ago
  Yes there is a better way to develop tech without knowingly sending a group of people to their deaths. We could throw 100s of billions of dollars into it. But it’s harder to sell to investors than language models
  - ericd 2y ago
    Ways that have no realistic way of happening aren’t better ways. Obviously we don’t send a group without making it not certain death first. But the person I was responding to said that it would be reliant on Earth, which, yeah, you can’t realistically develop a fully self reliant economy without making a reliant economy first.
    - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
      I have two important questions. My first question is: would you be enthusiastic about the concept of a lunar colony? My second question is: what kinds of things do you think are viable for a colony made within the next 50 years?
      - ericd 2y ago
        Lunar seems more convenient for debugging colony creation than Martian, since the shipping time from Earth will be a whole lot shorter. Projects are a lot harder when trips to the hardware store take months rather than days. I think Starship makes colonies a whole lot more viable, once they iron out the issues, but I generally don't know enough to answer your second question.
        dartos 2y ago
        > Projects are a lot harder when trips to the hardware store take months rather than days How long do you think it takes to plan a trip to the moon? > I think Starship makes colonies a whole lot more viable Why?
        ericd 2y ago
        Presumably there’d be regular missions, so there’d be relatively little additional planning for a given moon trip, similar to how there’s a lot less planning/paperwork that goes into a Falcon 9 launch these days than there was for any rocket before Falcon 9. Starship’s goal is to drop cost of mass to orbit by a couple of orders of magnitude, if they pull that off, it would drop the cost of supporting a colony by quite a bit.
        BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
        I’m glad you are into the lunar colony. My biggest issue with the mars colony crowd is their disinterest in a much more practical lunar colony for us to cut our teeth on. Overall I feel like a lot of people are into colonies for aesthetic reasons. If it’s gonna 100-200 years before a colony could be self sustaining, then why are we treating multiplanetaryness as some kind of practical solution to current-day issues that appeared within the last century?

ysofunny 2y ago

before becoming "multiplanetary" we gotta get significantly better and single-planetary management. there is not even a global "we"

scarfaceneo 2y ago
Exactly. When people like Musk try and brainwash you into believing “we” should be a multi planetary species, what he means is “they” should be, and “you” should fund it.
- adastra22 2y ago
  It is fashionable to hate on Musk, sometimes for good reason, but this comment is straight up wrong. From the very beginning SpaceX’s long term business vision has been to enable middle class emigration to Mars.
  - speakfreely 2y ago
    It is not just fashionable, it is downright easy due to his personality. His methods of communication on many topics, particularly political ones, are purposefully misleading and manipulative. But he is 100% correct about the need to become an interplanetary species. On a long enough timeline, it's the only option to keep our future selves in existence. While I'd certainly prefer to have some wholesome, highly decorated astronaut with an honest streak and a perfect temperament be the one who started SpaceX and enabled multi-planetary travel, I still believe it's better that Musk is doing it than no one at all.
  - bdhcuidbebe 2y ago
    > From the very beginning SpaceX’s long term business vision has been to enable middle class emigration to Mars. That should have been enough reason for everyone to dismiss Musk, but unfortunatley too many uninformed people in charge. Mars is -60 celcuius on average, and lack an atmosphere. Youd die off cancer from radiation exposure within a year IF you had every other life supporting system in place. Then theres the seasonal explosive eruptions, no soil and countless other reasons this is a moronic enterprise. This aint fashionable, its facts. The sad part is that I think Musk actually knows this but his fans too dumb to see the charlatan for what he is.

energy123 2y ago

The certainty goes from 0 to 1 as it approaches. Given x = time until impact, what does that plot look like?

d0mine 2y ago

Even if large asteroid hits the Earth, the conditions are still better than on Mars.

rafram 2y ago

The Earth is very pretty and comfortable. Mars isn’t. Personally, I’ll opt to ride it out at home, where we have things like trees and oxygen.

notahacker 2y ago
Yeah. Sure, a bigger asteroid could cause a lot more problems than this one would if it hit. Ask the dinosaurs. But if you haven't got the tech for humanity to survive the fallout from a big impact on Earth, you don't have the tech to make a viable colony on Mars.

ourmandave 2y ago

I think about all the people who refuse evac orders and ride out hurricanes. Or worse, go down to the beach where huge surges are forecasted. How many would stay in the case of an asteroid?

bdhcuidbebe 2y ago

> I've argued here about the importance of becoming multiplanetary and had many people disagree. Unfortunatley for humankind, there is no second earth to move to. We need to care for the planet we inhabit, as its the only one capable of supporting life in our solar system, and interstellar travel is probably hundreds of years away. Even if we could move elsewhere, the chances any one of us would be rich enough to go there is a rounding error to zero.