3 ms·

I can think of some things that might work re fertility: Universal healthcare that includes women's health, fertility care, and abortion. Better wages and sho

I can think of some things that might work re fertility: Universal healthcare that includes women's health, fertility care, and abortion. Better wages and shorter working hours. Free universal childcare. Protected parental leave for both parents. People don't have kids because it's risky for their health and their careers, and because it's so incredibly expensive. It can be a catch-22 if you want to have kids, but you can't afford daycare and also can't afford for one parent to stay at home.

A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
S.Korea and Japan have quite a lot of that, or have made efforts in those directions. Granted, it can be argued that implementation of some facets was botched: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17516234.2021.1955644#abstract https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17516234.2021.1... Still, all efforts made in those directions haven't really moved the needle. TFR continues to drop. And "better wages and shorter working hours" isn't necessarily something that government can mandate -- as it doesn't set wages and can't really set a blanket restriction on the working hours of professionals.
- brendoelfrendo 2y ago
  The thing is, that's probably the biggest one. When young salarymen and women in Japan are unwilling to become parents because they make too little, or work too many hours to sustain a relationship, or because their employment prospects after having kids are diminished, then they won't have kids.
  - A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
    Any government that isn't a tyranny can't fix that problem, but certain governments (I'll explain below) can give cash incentives to have children. Imagine, e.g., $100k per birth. That would be a tremendous deal for the government, as the child's tax contributions are likely to far exceed that amount. It would also sweeten the deal, in a huge way, for most parents. ...Then loosen restrictions on childcare, and an entire industry would spring up, as if by magic, to help parents. And help them dispose of that money. That S.Korea hasn't tried this yet suggests that their government still isn't taking the problem seriously, or doesn't care. This is a massive, world-historical failure on their part. (It could be driven entirely by democratic pique -- older generations upset that they missed out.) Hungary, for its part, can't do that. Let's speak plainly. Hungary has a large, and economically unproductive, Roma population. Huge cash bonuses would send Roma TFR -- already twice as high as the baseline population -- into the stratosphere, which would inevitably lead to civil unrest. In Hungary's case, tyrannical measures, such as onerous restrictions on private business, are probably preferred. What's certain is that the solutions are not going to be neat, pretty, or even very popular. Few countries, if any at all, are going to get it right.

A_D_E_P_T 2y ago

S.Korea and Japan have quite a lot of that, or have made efforts in those directions. Granted, it can be argued that implementation of some facets was botched: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17516234.2021.1955644#abstract https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17516234.2021.1... Still, all efforts made in those directions haven't really moved the needle. TFR continues to drop. And "better wages and shorter working hours" isn't necessarily something that government can mandate -- as it doesn't set wages and can't really set a blanket restriction on the working hours of professionals.

brendoelfrendo 2y ago
The thing is, that's probably the biggest one. When young salarymen and women in Japan are unwilling to become parents because they make too little, or work too many hours to sustain a relationship, or because their employment prospects after having kids are diminished, then they won't have kids.
- A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
  Any government that isn't a tyranny can't fix that problem, but certain governments (I'll explain below) can give cash incentives to have children. Imagine, e.g., $100k per birth. That would be a tremendous deal for the government, as the child's tax contributions are likely to far exceed that amount. It would also sweeten the deal, in a huge way, for most parents. ...Then loosen restrictions on childcare, and an entire industry would spring up, as if by magic, to help parents. And help them dispose of that money. That S.Korea hasn't tried this yet suggests that their government still isn't taking the problem seriously, or doesn't care. This is a massive, world-historical failure on their part. (It could be driven entirely by democratic pique -- older generations upset that they missed out.) Hungary, for its part, can't do that. Let's speak plainly. Hungary has a large, and economically unproductive, Roma population. Huge cash bonuses would send Roma TFR -- already twice as high as the baseline population -- into the stratosphere, which would inevitably lead to civil unrest. In Hungary's case, tyrannical measures, such as onerous restrictions on private business, are probably preferred. What's certain is that the solutions are not going to be neat, pretty, or even very popular. Few countries, if any at all, are going to get it right.