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It's not certain that we get TAI or ASI, but if we get it, it will be better at software development than us. The question is which probability do you assign t
by zurfer 2y ago
It's not certain that we get TAI or ASI, but if we get it, it will be better at software development than us.
The question is which probability do you assign to getting TAI over time?
From your comment it seems you say 0 percent in your career.
For me it's between 20 to 80 percent in the next ten years ( depending on the day :)
- sfn42 2y agoI don't have any knowledge that allows me to make any kind of prediction about the likelihood of that technology being invented. I'm not convinced anyone else does either. So I'm just going to go about my life as usual, if something changes at some point I'll deal with it then. Don't see any reason to worry about science fiction-esque scenarios.
- smeeger 2y agothe reason to worry is that humanity could halt AI if it wanted to. if there were a huge asteroid on a collision course with earth… there would be literally nothing we could do to stop it. there would be no configuration of our resources, no matter how united we were in the effort, that could save us. with AI, halting progress is very plausible. it would be easy to do actually. so the reason to worry (think) is because it might be worth it to halt. imagine letting jesus take the wheel, thats how stupid ___ are.
- achierius 2y agoI, and many others, think you have it backwards. Huge asteroid? We know full well how to deflect an asteroid -- launch rockets, deploy thrusters or explosives or &c, give it a little nudge and it'll miss the Earth by a huge margin. And better yet: everyone would be aligned on the need to do so! AI on the other hand -- I don't think this applies. We couldn't stop nuclear proliferation -- what makes you so confident that we'd stop AI development before it was too late?
- smeeger 2y agowrong. it wouldn't take a very big asteroid (as astroids go) for the amount of inertia to go well beyond what we are capable of deflecting. its a real example. AI on the other hand could be stopped simply by stopping. we wouldnt even have to build anything.
- sfn42 2y agoHow exactly do you envision that these hypothetical computer programs could bring about the apocalypse?