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Nothing. I don't think there's anything I need to prepare for. AI can't do my job and I doubt it will any time soon. Developers who think AI will replace them m

by sfn42 2y ago

Nothing. I don't think there's anything I need to prepare for. AI can't do my job and I doubt it will any time soon. Developers who think AI will replace them must be miserable at their job lol. At best AI will be a tool I use while developing software. For now I don't even think it's very good at that.

rybosworld 2y ago
Imagine two software engineers. One believes the following: > AI can't do my job and I doubt it will any time soon The other believes the opposite; that AI is improving rapidly enough that their job is in danger "soon". From a game theory stance, is there any advantage to holding the first belief over the second?
- sfn42 2y ago
  Yeah. The engineer who thinks their job is in danger might be less inclined to improve their skills because they don't think their skills will be useful in the future, which is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy. Maybe they will pursue some other career or start preparing for it, which might be a complete waste of time. Similarly, non-engineers might choose a different profession entirely. Meanwhile the engineer who isn't bothered by this bullshit prophecy goes about their day, making lots of money and becoming less replaceable every day. Maybe they learn to use these AI tools to be more efficient, which is really the only realistic endgame of AI tools anyway. You don't just fire all the devs and have some manager do the prompting. Maybe you fire some devs and keep the best ones as prompt engineers. Maybe this isn't even a management-driven process at all, maybe the developers just start using these tools of their own volition, become more productive and everyone's happy. It's not like we're running out of development work any time soon, whenever we meet a goal they set a new one. Being able to move faster doesn't necessarily mean we need fewer developers. Setting aside hypotheticals and game theory, it's completely unrealistic to expect that software developer suddenly won't be a job any more. If it even happens it will be a slow, gradual process. The people working as software developers today will be prime candidates for using AI tools to create software. You still need to understand what you're doing, what's possible and what isn't etc. There is absolutely no reality where some business person just tells an AI to make a banking system and it does that perfectly without any human intervention.
zurfer 2y ago
It's not certain that we get TAI or ASI, but if we get it, it will be better at software development than us. The question is which probability do you assign to getting TAI over time? From your comment it seems you say 0 percent in your career. For me it's between 20 to 80 percent in the next ten years ( depending on the day :)
- sfn42 2y ago
  I don't have any knowledge that allows me to make any kind of prediction about the likelihood of that technology being invented. I'm not convinced anyone else does either. So I'm just going to go about my life as usual, if something changes at some point I'll deal with it then. Don't see any reason to worry about science fiction-esque scenarios.
  - smeeger 2y ago
    the reason to worry is that humanity could halt AI if it wanted to. if there were a huge asteroid on a collision course with earth… there would be literally nothing we could do to stop it. there would be no configuration of our resources, no matter how united we were in the effort, that could save us. with AI, halting progress is very plausible. it would be easy to do actually. so the reason to worry (think) is because it might be worth it to halt. imagine letting jesus take the wheel, thats how stupid ___ are.
    - achierius 2y ago
      I, and many others, think you have it backwards. Huge asteroid? We know full well how to deflect an asteroid -- launch rockets, deploy thrusters or explosives or &c, give it a little nudge and it'll miss the Earth by a huge margin. And better yet: everyone would be aligned on the need to do so! AI on the other hand -- I don't think this applies. We couldn't stop nuclear proliferation -- what makes you so confident that we'd stop AI development before it was too late?
      - smeeger 2y ago
sureIy 2y ago
> AI can't do my job Last famous words. Current technology can't do your job, future tech most certainly will be able to. The question is just whether such tech will come in your lifetime. I thought the creative field was the last thing humans could do but that was the first one to fall. Pixels and words are the cheapest item right now.
- sfn42 2y ago
  Sure man, I'll believe you when I see it. I'm not aware of any big changes in writer/artist employment either.
  - sureIy 2y ago
    Don't be so naive. History is not on your side. Every person who said that 100 years ago has been replaced. Except prostitutes maybe. The only argument you can have is to be cheaper than the machine, and at some point you won't be.
    - sfn42 2y ago
      That's complete bullshit. Lots of people still work in factories - there's fewer people because of automation but there's still lots of people. Lots of people still work in farming. Less manual labor means we can produce more with the same amount of people or fewer, that's a good thing. But you still need people in pretty much everything. Things change and people adapt. Maybe my job won't be the same in 20 years, maybe it will. But I'm pretty sure I'll still have a job. If you want to make big decisions now based on vague predictions about the future go ahead. I don't care what you do. I'm going to do what works now, and if things change I'll make whatever decisions I need to make once I have the information I need to make them. You call me naive, I'd say the same about you. You're out here preaching and calling people naive based on what you think the future might look like. Probably because some influencer or whatever got to you. I'm making good money doing what I do right now, and I know for a fact that will continue for years to come. I see no reason to change anything right now.
smeeger 2y ago
a foolish assumption but i have my fingers crossed for you and stuck firmly up my own butt… just in case that will increase the lucky effect of it
- sfn42 2y ago
  Yeah I'm clearly the fool here..

by sfn42 2y ago

rybosworld 2y ago

Imagine two software engineers. One believes the following: > AI can't do my job and I doubt it will any time soon The other believes the opposite; that AI is improving rapidly enough that their job is in danger "soon". From a game theory stance, is there any advantage to holding the first belief over the second?

sfn42 2y ago
Yeah. The engineer who thinks their job is in danger might be less inclined to improve their skills because they don't think their skills will be useful in the future, which is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy. Maybe they will pursue some other career or start preparing for it, which might be a complete waste of time. Similarly, non-engineers might choose a different profession entirely. Meanwhile the engineer who isn't bothered by this bullshit prophecy goes about their day, making lots of money and becoming less replaceable every day. Maybe they learn to use these AI tools to be more efficient, which is really the only realistic endgame of AI tools anyway. You don't just fire all the devs and have some manager do the prompting. Maybe you fire some devs and keep the best ones as prompt engineers. Maybe this isn't even a management-driven process at all, maybe the developers just start using these tools of their own volition, become more productive and everyone's happy. It's not like we're running out of development work any time soon, whenever we meet a goal they set a new one. Being able to move faster doesn't necessarily mean we need fewer developers. Setting aside hypotheticals and game theory, it's completely unrealistic to expect that software developer suddenly won't be a job any more. If it even happens it will be a slow, gradual process. The people working as software developers today will be prime candidates for using AI tools to create software. You still need to understand what you're doing, what's possible and what isn't etc. There is absolutely no reality where some business person just tells an AI to make a banking system and it does that perfectly without any human intervention.

zurfer 2y ago

It's not certain that we get TAI or ASI, but if we get it, it will be better at software development than us. The question is which probability do you assign to getting TAI over time? From your comment it seems you say 0 percent in your career. For me it's between 20 to 80 percent in the next ten years ( depending on the day :)

sfn42 2y ago
I don't have any knowledge that allows me to make any kind of prediction about the likelihood of that technology being invented. I'm not convinced anyone else does either. So I'm just going to go about my life as usual, if something changes at some point I'll deal with it then. Don't see any reason to worry about science fiction-esque scenarios.
- smeeger 2y ago
  the reason to worry is that humanity could halt AI if it wanted to. if there were a huge asteroid on a collision course with earth… there would be literally nothing we could do to stop it. there would be no configuration of our resources, no matter how united we were in the effort, that could save us. with AI, halting progress is very plausible. it would be easy to do actually. so the reason to worry (think) is because it might be worth it to halt. imagine letting jesus take the wheel, thats how stupid ___ are.
  - achierius 2y ago
    I, and many others, think you have it backwards. Huge asteroid? We know full well how to deflect an asteroid -- launch rockets, deploy thrusters or explosives or &c, give it a little nudge and it'll miss the Earth by a huge margin. And better yet: everyone would be aligned on the need to do so! AI on the other hand -- I don't think this applies. We couldn't stop nuclear proliferation -- what makes you so confident that we'd stop AI development before it was too late?
    - smeeger 2y ago

sureIy 2y ago

> AI can't do my job Last famous words. Current technology can't do your job, future tech most certainly will be able to. The question is just whether such tech will come in your lifetime. I thought the creative field was the last thing humans could do but that was the first one to fall. Pixels and words are the cheapest item right now.

sfn42 2y ago
Sure man, I'll believe you when I see it. I'm not aware of any big changes in writer/artist employment either.
- sureIy 2y ago
  Don't be so naive. History is not on your side. Every person who said that 100 years ago has been replaced. Except prostitutes maybe. The only argument you can have is to be cheaper than the machine, and at some point you won't be.
  - sfn42 2y ago
    That's complete bullshit. Lots of people still work in factories - there's fewer people because of automation but there's still lots of people. Lots of people still work in farming. Less manual labor means we can produce more with the same amount of people or fewer, that's a good thing. But you still need people in pretty much everything. Things change and people adapt. Maybe my job won't be the same in 20 years, maybe it will. But I'm pretty sure I'll still have a job. If you want to make big decisions now based on vague predictions about the future go ahead. I don't care what you do. I'm going to do what works now, and if things change I'll make whatever decisions I need to make once I have the information I need to make them. You call me naive, I'd say the same about you. You're out here preaching and calling people naive based on what you think the future might look like. Probably because some influencer or whatever got to you. I'm making good money doing what I do right now, and I know for a fact that will continue for years to come. I see no reason to change anything right now.

smeeger 2y ago

a foolish assumption but i have my fingers crossed for you and stuck firmly up my own butt… just in case that will increase the lucky effect of it

sfn42 2y ago
Yeah I'm clearly the fool here..