5 ms·

As informal as it might seem listing places where the US might start losing out on trade, given the current political situation, the last thing needed is any si

As informal as it might seem listing places where the US might start losing out on trade, given the current political situation, the last thing needed is any simple list that might fuel narcissistic outrage when it might threaten the golden one's genius plan, especially later on when (if?) it doesn't pan out out and a new round of allocating blame and punishment is engaged. One can not expect such people to innately understand why some reactions occur. Just look at Musk's outburst after he burnt tw-tter and the long term advertisers figured the people they were selling to would probably have moved on to other platforms and likewise pulled advertising from the new mess. All we (the rest of the world) can do is hope that the initial tariffs imposed on trade will be enough to look like they're having a win.

westurner 2y ago
"EU and Mexico revive stalled trade deal as Trump tariffs loom" https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mexico-revive-stalled-trade-deal-trump-looms-2025-01-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mexico-revive-stalled-trade... FWIU the President of Mexico told Trump that they would be more concerned about migrants crossing their northern border if the US were more concerned about arms trafficked to Mexico.
- anenefan 2y ago
  That's sort of funny but then again IMO, the biggest difference to immigration rate and would be something the US doesn't seem to have - a fixed rate of minimum pay regardless of whether people are US born citizens or not.
  - westurner 2y ago
    Basic income experiments here have not succeeded FWIU; https://hn.algolia.com/?q=basic+income https://hn.algolia.com/?q=basic+income They did not pay for the relief checks signed with his personal brand and the record relief loan fraud by cutting taxes; so that's still not paid off either. Recipe for national debt: increase expenses and cut revenue. "Starve the beast" said the Reaganites who increased taxes on the middle class and increased foreign war expenditures and future obligations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast "Where do people get that Reagan raised taxes 11 times? I don’t completely understand this." https://www.quora.com/Where-do-people-get-that-Reagan-raised-taxes-11-times-I-don-t-completely-understand-this https://www.quora.com/Where-do-people-get-that-Reagan-raised... "The Mostly Forgotten Tax Increases of 1982-1993" https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/the-mostly-forgotten-tax-increases-of-1982-1993 https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/the-mostl... Total Tax Receipts as a % of GDP would tell the story; but they also increased the debt limit 18 times. "Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S "Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S Combined chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DTZx https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DTZx History of the US debt ceiling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_d... I don't think that debt financing onto future generations and starting conflicts that have since cost trillions made America great. Would improving conditions in their home country change the immigration rate? But won't there still be climate refugees? It's hot, there's no water, there's no work. Just watched an alarmed presentation on U-3 and U-6 as indicators of unemployment rate: U-6 includes underemployment at less than 25K/yr.
    - westurner 2y ago
      Reaganomics > Policies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics#Policies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics#Policies : > The 1982 tax increase undid a third of the initial tax cut. In 1983 Reagan instituted a payroll tax increase on Social Security and Medicare hospital insurance. [25] In 1984 another bill was introduced that closed tax loopholes. According to tax historian Joseph Thorndike, the bills of 1982 and 1984 "constituted the biggest tax increase ever enacted during peacetime". [26] Also, >> said the Reaganites who increased taxes on the middle class and increased foreign war expenditures and future obligations: To clarify, Reagan reduced taxes for the wealthiest the most, thus shifting the effective tax burden to the middle class and increasing inequality. "Changes in poverty, income inequality, and the standard of living in the United States during the Reagan years" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8500951/#:~:text=The%20rate%20of%20poverty%20at,increase%20inequality%20but%20reduced%20poverty. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8500951/#:~:text=The%20rate%... : > The rate of poverty at the end of Reagan's term was the same as in 1980. Cutbacks in income transfers during the Reagan years helped increase both poverty and inequality. Changes in tax policy helped increase inequality but reduced poverty. Gini Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient GINI Index for the United States: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA "Make America Great Again": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_America_Great_Again https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_America_Great_Again At that time - during the 1970s and 1980s - Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP was much lower than it is today; 30-53% in the 1980s and 120% of GDP in 2024 : > Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
    - anenefan 2y ago
      Ah sorry for not being to the point as I forget just how many systems there are globally - I meant minimum wage payments. The effect would not be immediate and would take years, though a tax break for businesses for each US citizen on their payroll would surely help speed it up. I have known too many US based people who moan about the influx but happy to have jobs done by illegals at a really dirt cheap rate. As as additional note, Australia had this fair wage pay as law for a great number of years, but somewhere along the line people plain forgot. Back in the 70s the country used to have Aussie based workers that travelled the entire country, north to south and back again to follow work as seasonal workers in agriculture. However the process for hiring an employee was a handful and red tape most DIY accounting folks didn't like dealing with so much, meant the option of simplified payment steam to a company providing labour was and still is very attractive, even though some of the procedures has been relaxed. (Also until a decade or two ago, for years the employer would be paying into a black hole fund for worker's compensation, even if their crop was wiped out or for some other reason would not be needing any additional workers.) In the 90s I got to witness all sorts of BS schemes to get non aussie workers into the work force, like 457 visas so companies could fill jobs that they couldn't fill locally. Eventually everyone and their dog cottoned on to the shenanigans and ... for the most part a lot went by the way side. We still have noise here in Aussie land how backpackers save this and that because Aussies are lazy and what not - nope, most here growing up in the heat know working in conditions too hot or some other unsafe instance have long term consequences, might be 5 years down the track and the kidney damage finally reaches a point it needs to be addressed. Backpackers (tourists with a work visa who travel and work their way around a country) are typically long gone back in their home land, so they're ideal for scam labour companies and the odd no moral compass farmer.

westurner 2y ago

"EU and Mexico revive stalled trade deal as Trump tariffs loom" https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mexico-revive-stalled-trade-deal-trump-looms-2025-01-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mexico-revive-stalled-trade... FWIU the President of Mexico told Trump that they would be more concerned about migrants crossing their northern border if the US were more concerned about arms trafficked to Mexico.

anenefan 2y ago
That's sort of funny but then again IMO, the biggest difference to immigration rate and would be something the US doesn't seem to have - a fixed rate of minimum pay regardless of whether people are US born citizens or not.
- westurner 2y ago
  Basic income experiments here have not succeeded FWIU; https://hn.algolia.com/?q=basic+income https://hn.algolia.com/?q=basic+income They did not pay for the relief checks signed with his personal brand and the record relief loan fraud by cutting taxes; so that's still not paid off either. Recipe for national debt: increase expenses and cut revenue. "Starve the beast" said the Reaganites who increased taxes on the middle class and increased foreign war expenditures and future obligations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast "Where do people get that Reagan raised taxes 11 times? I don’t completely understand this." https://www.quora.com/Where-do-people-get-that-Reagan-raised-taxes-11-times-I-don-t-completely-understand-this https://www.quora.com/Where-do-people-get-that-Reagan-raised... "The Mostly Forgotten Tax Increases of 1982-1993" https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/the-mostly-forgotten-tax-increases-of-1982-1993 https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/the-mostl... Total Tax Receipts as a % of GDP would tell the story; but they also increased the debt limit 18 times. "Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S "Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S Combined chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DTZx https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DTZx History of the US debt ceiling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_d... I don't think that debt financing onto future generations and starting conflicts that have since cost trillions made America great. Would improving conditions in their home country change the immigration rate? But won't there still be climate refugees? It's hot, there's no water, there's no work. Just watched an alarmed presentation on U-3 and U-6 as indicators of unemployment rate: U-6 includes underemployment at less than 25K/yr.
  - westurner 2y ago
    Reaganomics > Policies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics#Policies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics#Policies : > The 1982 tax increase undid a third of the initial tax cut. In 1983 Reagan instituted a payroll tax increase on Social Security and Medicare hospital insurance. [25] In 1984 another bill was introduced that closed tax loopholes. According to tax historian Joseph Thorndike, the bills of 1982 and 1984 "constituted the biggest tax increase ever enacted during peacetime". [26] Also, >> said the Reaganites who increased taxes on the middle class and increased foreign war expenditures and future obligations: To clarify, Reagan reduced taxes for the wealthiest the most, thus shifting the effective tax burden to the middle class and increasing inequality. "Changes in poverty, income inequality, and the standard of living in the United States during the Reagan years" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8500951/#:~:text=The%20rate%20of%20poverty%20at,increase%20inequality%20but%20reduced%20poverty. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8500951/#:~:text=The%20rate%... : > The rate of poverty at the end of Reagan's term was the same as in 1980. Cutbacks in income transfers during the Reagan years helped increase both poverty and inequality. Changes in tax policy helped increase inequality but reduced poverty. Gini Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient GINI Index for the United States: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA "Make America Great Again": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_America_Great_Again https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_America_Great_Again At that time - during the 1970s and 1980s - Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP was much lower than it is today; 30-53% in the 1980s and 120% of GDP in 2024 : > Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
  - anenefan 2y ago
    Ah sorry for not being to the point as I forget just how many systems there are globally - I meant minimum wage payments. The effect would not be immediate and would take years, though a tax break for businesses for each US citizen on their payroll would surely help speed it up. I have known too many US based people who moan about the influx but happy to have jobs done by illegals at a really dirt cheap rate. As as additional note, Australia had this fair wage pay as law for a great number of years, but somewhere along the line people plain forgot. Back in the 70s the country used to have Aussie based workers that travelled the entire country, north to south and back again to follow work as seasonal workers in agriculture. However the process for hiring an employee was a handful and red tape most DIY accounting folks didn't like dealing with so much, meant the option of simplified payment steam to a company providing labour was and still is very attractive, even though some of the procedures has been relaxed. (Also until a decade or two ago, for years the employer would be paying into a black hole fund for worker's compensation, even if their crop was wiped out or for some other reason would not be needing any additional workers.) In the 90s I got to witness all sorts of BS schemes to get non aussie workers into the work force, like 457 visas so companies could fill jobs that they couldn't fill locally. Eventually everyone and their dog cottoned on to the shenanigans and ... for the most part a lot went by the way side. We still have noise here in Aussie land how backpackers save this and that because Aussies are lazy and what not - nope, most here growing up in the heat know working in conditions too hot or some other unsafe instance have long term consequences, might be 5 years down the track and the kidney damage finally reaches a point it needs to be addressed. Backpackers (tourists with a work visa who travel and work their way around a country) are typically long gone back in their home land, so they're ideal for scam labour companies and the odd no moral compass farmer.