4 ms·

Ask HN: Who's been picking up trade deals due to US tariff threats?

4 points by westurner 2y ago

Trump claimed tariffs are necessary due to the drug war wartime authorizations and threatened our immediate neighbors and BRICS with tariffs this year. Which countries are winning trade and tech deals while the US is forcing itself to pay tariffs on imports to collectively punish others without due process?

westurner 2y ago
Example: China is now buying Canadian oil (instead of Russian oil at a discount due to sanctions)
- westurner 2y ago
  /? canada tariffs: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=canada%20tariffs&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... "Trump tariffs inspire economic patriotism in Canada" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42922237 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42922237 FWIU they have regressed from free trade all the way to tariffs on Canada at 25% on everything but oil, which is at 10%? And they uncancelled and re-approved the Keystone XL tar sands midwest plains liability.
anenefan 2y ago
As informal as it might seem listing places where the US might start losing out on trade, given the current political situation, the last thing needed is any simple list that might fuel narcissistic outrage when it might threaten the golden one's genius plan, especially later on when (if?) it doesn't pan out out and a new round of allocating blame and punishment is engaged. One can not expect such people to innately understand why some reactions occur. Just look at Musk's outburst after he burnt tw-tter and the long term advertisers figured the people they were selling to would probably have moved on to other platforms and likewise pulled advertising from the new mess. All we (the rest of the world) can do is hope that the initial tariffs imposed on trade will be enough to look like they're having a win.
- westurner 2y ago
  "EU and Mexico revive stalled trade deal as Trump tariffs loom" https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mexico-revive-stalled-trade-deal-trump-looms-2025-01-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-mexico-revive-stalled-trade... FWIU the President of Mexico told Trump that they would be more concerned about migrants crossing their northern border if the US were more concerned about arms trafficked to Mexico.
  - anenefan 2y ago
    That's sort of funny but then again IMO, the biggest difference to immigration rate and would be something the US doesn't seem to have - a fixed rate of minimum pay regardless of whether people are US born citizens or not.
    - westurner 2y ago
      Basic income experiments here have not succeeded FWIU; https://hn.algolia.com/?q=basic+income https://hn.algolia.com/?q=basic+income They did not pay for the relief checks signed with his personal brand and the record relief loan fraud by cutting taxes; so that's still not paid off either. Recipe for national debt: increase expenses and cut revenue. "Starve the beast" said the Reaganites who increased taxes on the middle class and increased foreign war expenditures and future obligations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast "Where do people get that Reagan raised taxes 11 times? I don’t completely understand this." https://www.quora.com/Where-do-people-get-that-Reagan-raised-taxes-11-times-I-don-t-completely-understand-this https://www.quora.com/Where-do-people-get-that-Reagan-raised... "The Mostly Forgotten Tax Increases of 1982-1993" https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/the-mostly-forgotten-tax-increases-of-1982-1993 https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/the-mostl... Total Tax Receipts as a % of GDP would tell the story; but they also increased the debt limit 18 times. "Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S "Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S Combined chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DTZx https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DTZx History of the US debt ceiling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_d... I don't think that debt financing onto future generations and starting conflicts that have since cost trillions made America great. Would improving conditions in their home country change the immigration rate? But won't there still be climate refugees? It's hot, there's no water, there's no work. Just watched an alarmed presentation on U-3 and U-6 as indicators of unemployment rate: U-6 includes underemployment at less than 25K/yr.
westurner 2y ago
Is their objective to cause new manufacturing businesses to afford labor and living costs in the US? Which metrics are the targets? How will businesses compete in international markets with a tariff crutch subsidizing their domestic inefficiency? Did tariffs save US steel businesses?

westurner 2y ago
Reaganomics > Policies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics#Policies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics#Policies : > The 1982 tax increase undid a third of the initial tax cut. In 1983 Reagan instituted a payroll tax increase on Social Security and Medicare hospital insurance. [25] In 1984 another bill was introduced that closed tax loopholes. According to tax historian Joseph Thorndike, the bills of 1982 and 1984 "constituted the biggest tax increase ever enacted during peacetime". [26] Also, >> said the Reaganites who increased taxes on the middle class and increased foreign war expenditures and future obligations: To clarify, Reagan reduced taxes for the wealthiest the most, thus shifting the effective tax burden to the middle class and increasing inequality. "Changes in poverty, income inequality, and the standard of living in the United States during the Reagan years" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8500951/#:~:text=The%20rate%20of%20poverty%20at,increase%20inequality%20but%20reduced%20poverty. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8500951/#:~:text=The%20rate%... : > The rate of poverty at the end of Reagan's term was the same as in 1980. Cutbacks in income transfers during the Reagan years helped increase both poverty and inequality. Changes in tax policy helped increase inequality but reduced poverty. Gini Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient GINI Index for the United States: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA "Make America Great Again": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_America_Great_Again https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_America_Great_Again At that time - during the 1970s and 1980s - Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP was much lower than it is today; 30-53% in the 1980s and 120% of GDP in 2024 : > Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
anenefan 2y ago
Ah sorry for not being to the point as I forget just how many systems there are globally - I meant minimum wage payments. The effect would not be immediate and would take years, though a tax break for businesses for each US citizen on their payroll would surely help speed it up. I have known too many US based people who moan about the influx but happy to have jobs done by illegals at a really dirt cheap rate. As as additional note, Australia had this fair wage pay as law for a great number of years, but somewhere along the line people plain forgot. Back in the 70s the country used to have Aussie based workers that travelled the entire country, north to south and back again to follow work as seasonal workers in agriculture. However the process for hiring an employee was a handful and red tape most DIY accounting folks didn't like dealing with so much, meant the option of simplified payment steam to a company providing labour was and still is very attractive, even though some of the procedures has been relaxed. (Also until a decade or two ago, for years the employer would be paying into a black hole fund for worker's compensation, even if their crop was wiped out or for some other reason would not be needing any additional workers.) In the 90s I got to witness all sorts of BS schemes to get non aussie workers into the work force, like 457 visas so companies could fill jobs that they couldn't fill locally. Eventually everyone and their dog cottoned on to the shenanigans and ... for the most part a lot went by the way side. We still have noise here in Aussie land how backpackers save this and that because Aussies are lazy and what not - nope, most here growing up in the heat know working in conditions too hot or some other unsafe instance have long term consequences, might be 5 years down the track and the kidney damage finally reaches a point it needs to be addressed. Backpackers (tourists with a work visa who travel and work their way around a country) are typically long gone back in their home land, so they're ideal for scam labour companies and the odd no moral compass farmer.
- westurner 2y ago
  Andrew Yang (and Sam Altman) probably have a piece to say about basic income / wage subsidies in context to the robots and sophisticated AI taking our jobs and tiny houses. Migrant labor exploitation? What would our food cost? How many people does it take to mow a sand lawn? I hope that the current hate for immigrants isn't much more than divisive political fearmongering and splitting that will diminish when they regain their humility and self respect due to food prices and having a conscience. Creating jobs on the other side of the border would probably be more cost-effective. IDK, "Terminator: Dark Fate", "The Big Green", "Amistad", "McFarland, USA" H1B competition in tech is fierce here, and the reason we don't get hired in our own country. Indiar and Chinar have more gifted students than we have students. Americans won't work the fields anymore; we'll pay Asia to manufacture robots and learn sustainable farming practices like no-till farming later. The new sustainable aviation fuel subsidy (of the previous administration) requires sustainable farming practices so that we're not subsidizing unrealized losses due soil depletion. It doesn't make sense to pay them to waste the land without consideration. Your success with fighting desertification is inspiring. We're still not sure why the Colorado river is running dry for the southwest where it's always been dry and carelessly farmed and drilled. TIL about bunds and preventing water from flashing off due to impacted soil trashed by years of tilling and overgrazing. I've a few friends who've traveled to Oceania for school and work. There should be an Australian "The Office". Welfare economics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_economics
  - anenefan 2y ago
    I would never consider a fair minimum wage which is regardless of citizen or non citizenship as a subsidy. As for supporting less developed countries -- around 1975 the formation of the Lima agreement[1] came to pass, a United Nations strategy to shift some manufacturing to less developed countries and share the wealth. I suspect that's yet another reason why some US companies expanded into South American countries. As for A.I. bots taking over our simple repetitive jobs or manual jobs like in construction duties, due to complexity and unexpected job functions it's not something that's going to be worth pursing too hard. Construction tasks were the sort of jobs I was referencing that some people liked getting for rock bottom dollar by way of desperate immigrants and though people do greatly benefit from really low rates when its their own money and mostly DIY projects, a bot replacement is a novel idea but ... A.I. General Practice doctor bot will exist long (years) before that, data for medicating and solving health issues has a much much larger data set existing over at least 50 years of information which most is still sort of relevant. As for construction - well obviously one meets plenty of people think it's fairly simple and a few lines in a DIY book has it covered. Yes the minimum wage would mean the nature and scope of some people's personal (back yard) projects would change. Small business would obviously be impacted but a smart govt would have in place something to balance out having to pay higher wages. Over all it's better people can work if they want to. Food prices generally should not have a high labour wage component when it leaves the farm gate - unless it's a back yard hobby situation. If a whooping big farm is crying foul labour minimum wage rates are too high, so high they can't make a profit, 9/10 times they're doing something wrong or ... they got /(are getting) fleeced when they sold / sell their produce to the markets. The act of fleecing a farmer or farm group is IMO, immoral. Actually (given the level of interest by a few people I've met or know) I would think a lot of people would love to work in the fields, so long as good farming practices are observed ie safe and not half killing themselves so by days end they are done for the day, they are paid at decent and liveable wage, (ie not slave labour rates) and there's time for themselves with perhaps hour travel to local affordable further / higher education they can participate in part time if they are inclined to do so. We also hear the same -- in that Aussies won't or don't want to work on a farm because [insert some BS excuse here] and it's fortunate there are backpackers (young tourists) who are prepared ... if the job is straight, pays ok, half decent conditions - there will be no end of willing home borne applicants. As for sustainable aviation fuel subsidy - I would guess for most people it implies a focus on more obvious oil seed crops on otherwise good agricultural land which could be utilised for food or fibre production. But I think the trick is to work out what oil producing crops could exist in marginal country, moreover a tree crop where it's feasible to drip irrigate or under tree root so that the very limited water isn't lost evaporating from the soil surface. As for tackling desertification, sustainability is a new mantra in the farming sector. I don't iirc any significant projects aimed at revegetating any large tracks of arid land I'd call a success. (There are though property owners who have done wonders to rehabilitate flogged country so it becomes more productive whilst ensuing a diverse landscape.) However for fighting desertification, I do recall 90s or so a very good example of the benefits of Permaculture as per Bill Mollison [2] rehabilitating a small knob / small hill of ground somewhere iirc in Africa back into a scene of lush greenery which might have even included some banana trees, whilst the rest of the landscape was bleak and dry with a minimum of grassy vegetation. >There should be an Australian "The Office". Never really got into either versions of The Office however something in the same vein but a little over the top is a workplace based Aussie show -- Swift and Shift Couriers[3] [1] https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/2014-04/Lima_Declaration_EN_web_0.pdf https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/2014-04/Lima_Decla... [pdf] [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Mollison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Mollison [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_and_Shift_Couriers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_and_Shift_Couriers

westurner 2y ago
I looked it up: Wage subsidy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wage_subsidy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wage_subsidy : > A wage subsidy is a payment to workers by the state, made either directly or through their employers. Its purposes are to redistribute income and to obviate the welfare trap attributed to other forms of relief, thereby reducing unemployment. It is most naturally implemented as a modification to the income tax system. Permaculture and Bill Mollison: perpetual spinach and Swiss Chard do well here. TIL there are videos about perennials and about companion planting. Potatoes in the soil below tomatoes, in food safe HDPE 5 gallon buckets with a patch cut into the side. But that's still plastic in the garden. Three Sisters: Corn, Beans, Squash. Import substitution industrialization > Latin America,: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_substitution_industrialization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_substitution_industrial... "The Biggest Mapping Mistake of All Time" re: Baja and the Sea of Cortez: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Hcq9_Tw2eTE& https://youtube.com/watch?v=Hcq9_Tw2eTE& Confessions of an Economic Hit Man is derided as untrue. See also links to "War is a Racket", which concludes with chapter "5. To Hell With War" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confessions_of_an_Economic_Hit_Man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confessions_of_an_Economic_Hit... Structural adjustment > Criticisms: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_adjustment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_adjustment Golden rule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Rule The "Farming Simulator" game has the user operate multiple labor positions on the farm as concurrently as they can master. We can't do similar backpackers-style field labor because there aren't travel visas that are also work visas FWIU. Volunteering while on a student visa is fine AFAIU. Non-commercial open source software development is also something that folks enjoying their travels can do for no money here. Laser weeding is still fairly underutilized. There's not yet an organic standard for herb. Nicotine is an approved "organic* pesticide, for example. Here we have Arbor Day Foundation, which will ship 10 free saplings for an easy annual tree survey. TIL trees can be shipped domestically in a trianglar cardboard carton, in a plastic bag, with a damp sheet of paper around their roots. It may be the work of Greening Australia that I've heard about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greening_Australia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greening_Australia One of a number of videos about planting trees on YouTube: "Australia's Remarkable Desert Regreening Project Success" https://youtube.com/watch?v=HRo0RG02Mg0& https://youtube.com/watch?v=HRo0RG02Mg0& I've heard that China has changed their approach to fighting desertification in the Gobi desert; toward a healthy diversity of undergrowth instead of a monoculture of trees; ecology instead of just planting rows of trees that won't last by comparison. Half Moon Bunds look like they are working to regreen the Sahel. Bunds would require different farm machines than rototilling tractors that cause erosion. "Mastering the Art of Half Moon Bunds" https://youtube.com/watch?v=XyH6dFlv9dk& https://youtube.com/watch?v=XyH6dFlv9dk& Andrew Million's light board videos are a great resource, as a software dev with no real experience in hydrological engineering for sustainable agriculture. "Inside Africa's Food Forest Mega-Project" https://youtube.com/watch?v=xbBdIG--b58& https://youtube.com/watch?v=xbBdIG--b58& "Flight of the Conchords" (HBO) and "Eagle vs Shark" are from NZ. From YouTube playlists: Derek from Veritasium, The Slow Mo Guys, The Engineering Mindset, Morello, Jade from upandatom, Sarah from Chuck, and Synthony are all from AU as I recall. "Be Kind Rewind" (2008) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Be_Kind_Rewind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Be_Kind_Rewind
- anenefan 2y ago
  The basic Minimum wage [1] is a wage which doesn't need to be subsidised. Only when as I described eliminating dirt poor / poverty line pay rates from a region that had relied on it, would any govt perhaps need to offer a subsidy to employers to swallow the bitter pill of paying the fair rate to all workers. In Australia employers are not entitled to any payment or entitlement from govt or other entities to continue to employ a long term employee earning an existing wage in their employment. Some big companies in the past have had a bit of a whine and gone for a grab for getting some sort of a handout but -- after the last major abuse where the govt helped a couple poor companies out and got burnt when the sods moved overseas or restructured effectively ending the jobs at risk that were the bargaining chip in the first instance ... I enjoy meeting the few backpackers that visit my region and I've no issue with them working, but for a very long time I've informed any that I crossed paths with, that they are entitled to the same pay rate as anyone else here, ie don't get scammed -- iirc, all of them had been getting scammed one way or another. I dislike (very understated) the majority of labour hire companies that were around, that arrange the on farm work as they have in the past, actively discriminated against regular aussies looking for a job - since the aussie is more often likely to know what is right and wrong, what is not acceptable and thus the labour hirer's long running scam would soon come under threat - took time but now govt here is looking at any bad contractors, but we still hear noise pieces chirping that aussies are lazy ... and ... I am surprised in regard to no US visa that addresses backpakers -- I'd thought in the free western world that the small fraction of tourists that wanted to backpack their way across the country, could do so if they wanted that option and meet the relevant criteria. As I understand, there are generally rules such as the prospective backpacker is not actually flat broke. Trying to find a near to close no mechanical removal of weeds from a crop, that is cheap and sustainable is somewhat the holy grail of farming. Seems like simple might win out at the end though small robotic platforms that traverse the field ... existing models thus far I've seen are solar powered / electric, which detect, identify and then mechanically upset / remove the weed as it slowly travels its target paddock. As for a massive project aimed at greening the Great Australian Desert [2] I'd not heard about it but I do not mean to imply it's not happening, Australia is actually a pretty big place. However the cover photo in the link suggests not desert proper but very marginal flat once cleared and felled, that after initial cropping flogged the soils, all it could be is poor farming country that is best rehabilitated and re-vegetated with trees and shrubs. There was actually a lot of conservation / rehabilitation work carried out in 1920's once it became very clear that the farming practices of the time did not suit the geology and climate of this country. I think as years progress here in Australia will see different farming systems come into play like the Alley cropping system.[3] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage [2] https://lifeboat.com/blog/2022/09/how-australia-is-regreening-its-deserts-back-into-a-green-oasis https://lifeboat.com/blog/2022/09/how-australia-is-regreenin... [3] https://www.agrifarming.in/alley-cropping-system-functions-objectives-benefits https://www.agrifarming.in/alley-cropping-system-functions-o... Edit to fix links