This piece cites data on acceptance rates to support the author's claim that colleges are more selective than ever: However, today’s top colleges are considera

This piece cites data on acceptance rates to support the author's claim that colleges are more selective than ever: However, today’s top colleges are considerably more selective and competitive compared to those same colleges generations ago. Acceptance rates have plunged. This is a misuse of statistics. Without data on the number and strength of applicants to each school we might be misled into believing that colleges are more selective and exclusive than ever. I think the truth is far less interesting (though annoyingly not well-studied): students may now apply to up to 20 different schools using a single common application. They are highly encouraged by school guidance counsellors to include a mix of "safe" schools (high likelihood of acceptance) and "reach" schools (low likelihood of acceptance). If this form of strategic college application is a widespread practice (and I have no reason to believe it isn't) then we should expect to see acceptance rates plummet across all top institutions even as total college enrolment rises. Furthermore, we should expect to see large numbers of applicants at top schools who really have no business applying (and I think we do). This would represent a large contribution to plummeting acceptance rates without any corresponding increase in selectivity.