4 ms·
There are many possible methods of deterrence and reciprocal action. If you do nothing, the enemy has no reason not to escalate.
by Trasmatta 2y ago
There are many possible methods of deterrence and reciprocal action. If you do nothing, the enemy has no reason not to escalate.
- basisword 2y ago>> There are many possible methods of deterrence and reciprocal action What do you suggest?
- boredatoms 2y agoFully close the border with russia? Permanently deny any boat that makes port in russia access to EU ports, I could go on
- stackedinserter 2y agoBan, arrest or damage "shadow fleet" tankers that transport Russian oil. Control their supply chain e.g. stop selling them spare parts for stolen planes. There are many things, all the way to taking hostages, but EU needs to grow some spine to do that.
- TheSpiceIsLife 2y agoReciprocal action gives the enemy plenty of reason to escalate.
- pmontra 2y agoLack of reciprocal action is called self deterrence. Or in simpler words, it's what happens when you keep doing what the bully at school asks you to do, more and more, because he could escalate, even if you are as strong as him or stronger.
- gizajob 2y agoPoor metaphor. Retaliation in this case means that in a short time all of the cables are cut and subsea cabling comes to an end.
- toss1 2y agoNo, there is a VAST menu of effective retaliation or response measures. The response absolutely does NOT need to be exactly in kind or 1:1. The key is that the measure must cost the aggressor more than they gain, and of course be reasonably proportional. Plus, even if we stick to your irrelevant requirement, response is better. It is less bad to have no subsea cabling for everyone vs making no response and ending up with only the aggressors having subsea cabling.
- simmonmt 2y agoThat's one possibility, but another is that they're deterred. Suddenly doing the bad thing hurts, so there's a good chance you'll go find some other person to pick on. But of course you can't /know/ the outcome beforehand, which is what makes it a high-stakes game. The only thing you know is that if you keep doing nothing they'll have no reason to stop.
- lostlogin 2y agoSo doing nothing causes escalation and reciprocal action causes escalation. What’s the answer?
- zhengyi13 2y agoIf that's actually the framework, then you need to respond not reciprocally or in kind or 'tit for tat', but to overwhelm. Speed, surprise, and violence (literal or metaphorical) of action.
- ashoeafoot 2y agoAct. Do not be acted upon aka re acting.
- yakshaving_jgt 2y agoThe answer is fairly obvious, but it doesn’t sound nice, and mentioning it on this forum is forbidden as far as I understand.
- stackedinserter 2y agoSo what?
- toss1 2y agoIt does NOT give them reason It may give them pretext But when they want to escalate, any convenient pretext they can fabricate will be spewed out Appeasement ONLY encourages aggressors. They can ignore any statements and rhetoric and correctly conclude: "I did X, no real consequences, therefore I can do more X". The ONLY language they understand is force or consequences with real cost to them. Vladimir Lenin said it very clearly: >>"We probe with bayonets. Where we find steel we withdraw, where we find mush we press on." When delaying reciprocal action, the cost for the next round ALWAYS increases. Delaying response is a fools' game. Democracies always play that fools' game because for any one politician, it is easier to kick the can down the road with bad reasoning like you posted. But when the situation finally becomes unavoidable, it is a deep serious problem. Here we are.
- gizajob 2y agoReally sounds like you’re quoting from Mein Kampf
- toss1 2y agoHmm. Although I've never read that tome, it would not surprise me to find he expresses similar strategies. It's really just the Imperialist Autocrats' standard playbook, and it is little different from the schoolyard bully — "What's mine is mine, and what's yours is up for grabs". They all just keep aggressing until they get hurt, then they find someone else to harass and steal from.
- mrighele 2y agoIt seems to me that Russia found a reason to escalate whenever it wanted anyway. If else, Russians see any restraint by the enemy as a sign of weakness and an excuse to escalate even more. “You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw” ― Vladimir Ilich Lenin
- logifail 2y ago> If you do nothing, the enemy has no reason not to escalate. Identifying your actual enemy is obviously step 1, and getting this right might be harder than you'd think. Look at Nord Stream 2...
- dmix 2y agoNord Stream 2 was already investigated back to Ukraine special services using a cruise ship and then the news went dead for obvious reasons.
- apelapan 2y agoThat is not impossible but it is far from certain. There are plenty of other possibilities and plenty of parties with plausible motive.