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by tw1984 2y ago

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brookst 2y ago
Appeals to authority are so totally unconvincing. What claims from the semianalysis article do you think are false? And based on what evidence?
- tw1984 2y ago
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  - blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
    Semianalysis is a trusted and reputable source that has deep knowledge of the semiconductor industry and supply chains. So yes, they know. > love your joke! > Get a real life please. > Too bad that you didn't learn this back in school. Read the site guidelines, as you’re repeatedly resorting to personal attacks in your comments on discussions around DeepSeek or China. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - tempusalaria 2y ago
      SemiAnalysis has made up many things. They claim that a small Chinese hedge fund could acquire $1bln in GPUs, with no state support, including many sanctioned chips, then trained a model optimized for a far smaller server compute size, and that they have a source at this very small fund who is willing to admit to export violations. A 40bln param active model is exactly the size you would expect from a server of the size they claim. What’s more likely - that semianalysis made it up like they have a bunch of other things, or that all the above is true?
      - rfoo 2y ago
        They had their A100s back in 2021 to early 2022, well before any GPU sanction kicked in. For a few months H800 wasn't sanctioned and that's when they bought them.
    - tw1984 2y ago
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- maxglute 2y ago
  Parent Highflyer hedgefund only been around for a few years with 8B AUM, aka their single digit % management fees since founding is in low 100s millions total (for all operating expenses), hence fiscally cannot acquire 1B+ of just hardware capex. Deepseek having access to that much hardware doesn't pass basic smell test, and semi analysis has been dodging call outs on socials for this basic math illiteracy.
hereonout2 2y ago
Didn't the deepseek paper itself state they trained on 2048 H200s? Claiming they have access to 5x this amount is not such a bold claim?
dang 2y ago
Hey, could you please make your points without resorting to the flamewar style? You've done that repeatedly in this thread, as well as in other threads recently (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43035040 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43035040). This is not what HN is for, and destroys what it is for. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful. The basic idea is to make your substantive points thoughtfully, regardless of how wrong anyone else is or you feel they are.

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by tw1984 2y ago

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Appeals to authority are so totally unconvincing. What claims from the semianalysis article do you think are false? And based on what evidence?

tw1984 2y ago
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- blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
  Semianalysis is a trusted and reputable source that has deep knowledge of the semiconductor industry and supply chains. So yes, they know. > love your joke! > Get a real life please. > Too bad that you didn't learn this back in school. Read the site guidelines, as you’re repeatedly resorting to personal attacks in your comments on discussions around DeepSeek or China. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - tempusalaria 2y ago
    SemiAnalysis has made up many things. They claim that a small Chinese hedge fund could acquire $1bln in GPUs, with no state support, including many sanctioned chips, then trained a model optimized for a far smaller server compute size, and that they have a source at this very small fund who is willing to admit to export violations. A 40bln param active model is exactly the size you would expect from a server of the size they claim. What’s more likely - that semianalysis made it up like they have a bunch of other things, or that all the above is true?
    - rfoo 2y ago
      They had their A100s back in 2021 to early 2022, well before any GPU sanction kicked in. For a few months H800 wasn't sanctioned and that's when they bought them.
  - tw1984 2y ago
    [flagged]
maxglute 2y ago
Parent Highflyer hedgefund only been around for a few years with 8B AUM, aka their single digit % management fees since founding is in low 100s millions total (for all operating expenses), hence fiscally cannot acquire 1B+ of just hardware capex. Deepseek having access to that much hardware doesn't pass basic smell test, and semi analysis has been dodging call outs on socials for this basic math illiteracy.

hereonout2 2y ago

Didn't the deepseek paper itself state they trained on 2048 H200s? Claiming they have access to 5x this amount is not such a bold claim?

dang 2y ago

Hey, could you please make your points without resorting to the flamewar style? You've done that repeatedly in this thread, as well as in other threads recently (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43035040 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43035040). This is not what HN is for, and destroys what it is for. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful. The basic idea is to make your substantive points thoughtfully, regardless of how wrong anyone else is or you feel they are.