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I was tempted to introduce Bayes' theorem to explain the base rate fallacy; however, I couldn't devise a way to very quickly introduce it without just making it
by capnrefsmmat 14y ago
I was tempted to introduce Bayes' theorem to explain the base rate fallacy; however, I couldn't devise a way to very quickly introduce it without just making it a magical formula I pulled out of my rear. It deserves more discussion than that. When I take a course on Bayesian statistics I may write a follow-up on alternatives to the flawed frequentist methods in the article.
Thanks for the tip about parametric statistics. I'll do some research.