4 ms·

Don't understand why we keep giving gary marcus attention

by qoez 2y ago

striking 2y ago
I don't know the guy, what's wrong with what he wrote?
- comeonbro 2y ago
  Gary Marcus has made himself the most prominent proponent of "deep learning is a parlor trick and cannot create real AI" (note: deep learning, not just LLMs), which he has been saying almost unmodified from before LLMs even existed to now. Though I think he might have stopped setting specific concrete goalposts to move, sometime between when I last checked in on him and now. After (often almost instantly) losing a couple dozen consecutive rounds of "LLMs/deep learning fundamentally cannot/will never", while never acknowledging any of it.
  - th0ma5 2y ago
    There's also a perspective that all of the ongoing problems have been the same while newer techniques shove them under different rugs. So I can see how that would look like that to the credulous.
    - unclebucknasty 2y ago
      This is exactly what's happening, with the additional feature that the newer techniques likewise come with their own hype.
  - tartoran 2y ago
    What does it mean when someone is sticking to their guns? Is it a bad thing? I do appreciate consistency, albeit a fair consistency and Gary Marcus's points do stand. When these criticisms are addressed (if it's possible to) you'd probably hear less from Gary Marcus.
  - garymarcus 2y ago
    Show me the goalposts I have moved, with actual quotes to prove it. nobody ever has when I have asked. Aso consider eg the bets I have made with Miles Brundage (and offered to Musk(, with money where I have backed up my views. good summary of predictions i made - mostly correct – is here: https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/25-ai-predictions...
- mandolingual 2y ago
  I'm subscribed to his substack because he's curmudgeonly and it's funny, and he occasionally makes good points, but he's constantly beating the same anti-hype drum. He might not get any particular facts wrong but you can count on him only focusing on the facts that let him continue to show AI through that same anti-hype lense.
  - th0ma5 2y ago
    How would it be possible to, say, show the reality of a forest fire's devastation while not appearing to show a bias for showing charred trees?
samr71 2y ago
Gary Marcus is cringe and wrong, but it's good to listen to folks who are cringe and wrong, because very occasionally, their willingness to be cringe means they're not wrong about something everyone thinks is true.
- jonny_eh 2y ago
  Can you be specific?
  - JKCalhoun 2y ago
    He recently posted a question he put to grok3 — a variation on the trick LLM question (my characterization) of "count the number of this letter in this word." Apparently this Achilles heel is a well-known LLM shortcoming. Weirdly though, I tried the same example he gave on lmarena and actually got the correct result from grok3, not what Gary got. So I am a little suspicious of his ... methodology? Since LLMs are not deterministic it's possible we are both right (or were testing different variations on the model?). But there's a righteousness about his glee in finding these faults in LLMs. Never hedging with, "but your results may vary" or "but perhaps they will soon be able to accomplish this." EDIT: the exact prompt (his typo 'world'): "Can you circle all the consonants in the world Chattanooga"
    - jonny_eh 2y ago
      I think it's fair to say though that if your results may vary, and be wrong, then they're not reliable enough for many use-cases. I'd have to see his full argument though to see if that's what he was claiming. I'm just trying to be charitable here.
      - JKCalhoun 2y ago
        I'm trying to be charitable as well — I suppose to both sides of the debate. Myself, I see pros and cons. The hype absolutely needs to be shut down, but a spokesperson that is more even-handed would be more convincing (in my opinion). Here is his post, FWIW: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles

Don't understand why we keep giving gary marcus attention

by qoez 2y ago

Don't understand why we keep giving gary marcus attention

striking 2y ago

I don't know the guy, what's wrong with what he wrote?

comeonbro 2y ago
Gary Marcus has made himself the most prominent proponent of "deep learning is a parlor trick and cannot create real AI" (note: deep learning, not just LLMs), which he has been saying almost unmodified from before LLMs even existed to now. Though I think he might have stopped setting specific concrete goalposts to move, sometime between when I last checked in on him and now. After (often almost instantly) losing a couple dozen consecutive rounds of "LLMs/deep learning fundamentally cannot/will never", while never acknowledging any of it.
- th0ma5 2y ago
  There's also a perspective that all of the ongoing problems have been the same while newer techniques shove them under different rugs. So I can see how that would look like that to the credulous.
  - unclebucknasty 2y ago
    This is exactly what's happening, with the additional feature that the newer techniques likewise come with their own hype.
- tartoran 2y ago
  What does it mean when someone is sticking to their guns? Is it a bad thing? I do appreciate consistency, albeit a fair consistency and Gary Marcus's points do stand. When these criticisms are addressed (if it's possible to) you'd probably hear less from Gary Marcus.
- garymarcus 2y ago
  Show me the goalposts I have moved, with actual quotes to prove it. nobody ever has when I have asked. Aso consider eg the bets I have made with Miles Brundage (and offered to Musk(, with money where I have backed up my views. good summary of predictions i made - mostly correct – is here: https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/25-ai-predictions...
mandolingual 2y ago
I'm subscribed to his substack because he's curmudgeonly and it's funny, and he occasionally makes good points, but he's constantly beating the same anti-hype drum. He might not get any particular facts wrong but you can count on him only focusing on the facts that let him continue to show AI through that same anti-hype lense.
- th0ma5 2y ago
  How would it be possible to, say, show the reality of a forest fire's devastation while not appearing to show a bias for showing charred trees?

samr71 2y ago

Gary Marcus is cringe and wrong, but it's good to listen to folks who are cringe and wrong, because very occasionally, their willingness to be cringe means they're not wrong about something everyone thinks is true.

jonny_eh 2y ago
Can you be specific?
- JKCalhoun 2y ago
  He recently posted a question he put to grok3 — a variation on the trick LLM question (my characterization) of "count the number of this letter in this word." Apparently this Achilles heel is a well-known LLM shortcoming. Weirdly though, I tried the same example he gave on lmarena and actually got the correct result from grok3, not what Gary got. So I am a little suspicious of his ... methodology? Since LLMs are not deterministic it's possible we are both right (or were testing different variations on the model?). But there's a righteousness about his glee in finding these faults in LLMs. Never hedging with, "but your results may vary" or "but perhaps they will soon be able to accomplish this." EDIT: the exact prompt (his typo 'world'): "Can you circle all the consonants in the world Chattanooga"
  - jonny_eh 2y ago
    I think it's fair to say though that if your results may vary, and be wrong, then they're not reliable enough for many use-cases. I'd have to see his full argument though to see if that's what he was claiming. I'm just trying to be charitable here.
    - JKCalhoun 2y ago
      I'm trying to be charitable as well — I suppose to both sides of the debate. Myself, I see pros and cons. The hype absolutely needs to be shut down, but a spokesperson that is more even-handed would be more convincing (in my opinion). Here is his post, FWIW: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/grok-3-beta-in-shambles