Well, I'm working on a project now where we would absolutely have needed to recruit at least one additional entry-level dev if we didn't instead have an LLM to

Well, I'm working on a project now where we would absolutely have needed to recruit at least one additional entry-level dev if we didn't instead have an LLM to generate a few thousand lines of python to orchestrate some basic DB interactions. It's not complicated stuff, but it is time consuming. I'd rate its output as not great, but adequate for the purpose, so long as robustly supervised. (much like an inexperienced human.) I don't know if this anecdote qualifies as the "close analysis" you're looking for, but it seems instructive to me since it allows me to say with absolute certainty that an LLM is doing the job of at least one person. (And I'm confident it would be more than one if I were working on a bigger project.)