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A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-no-show-rates-2020-vs-2019/#:

A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-no-show-rates-2020-vs-2019/#:~:text=The%202019%20no%2Dshow%20rates%20among%20the%20airports%20sampled%20demonstrate%20stability%2C%20averaging%2014.40%25%20throughout%20the%20year.%20January%20demonstrated%20the%20lowest%20no%2Dshow%20rate%20at%2014.35%25%20whilst%20August%20witnessed%20a%20peak%20at%2018.30%25%20(%2B3.95%25). https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-n... However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)

SteveNuts 2y ago
That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections? I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.
- lhoff 2y ago
  A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights. Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.
  - listenallyall 2y ago
    No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.
    - danielheath 2y ago
      ... or perhaps they prioritize ensuring their consultants feel like they're being looked after - replacing them when they find another job is very expensive.
      - listenallyall 2y ago
        What part of my comment suggests consultants aren't "looked after?" The idea that the consultants' personal time is so low on the scale of priorities that the company prefers to pay 3x or 4x for plane tickets to ensure they are available to spend extra time with clients, rather than their families, suggests that the company is specifically NOT looking after the consultants' well-being.
        dullcrisp 2y ago
        Yeah, replace consultants with clients in that comment and you’ll have the right of it.
        pc86 2y ago
        That the consultants' personal time is high on the scale is why they pay for the flex-fare tickets. So you miss an 8pm flight for one reason or another - it happens, so "don't miss the flight" isn't a valid retort. Do I feel better taken care of if I can just take the following morning's flight at no additional cost or hassle, or if I now need to contact someone at Amex Global Business Travel, have them try to get me on a flight, have another expense, potentially not be able to get on the next flight or the one after that, etc.
        listenallyall 2y ago
        The company can start with heavily-discounted restricted tickets and eat them when a consultant needs to extend the trip. Today it's even easier because airlines have eliminated change fees - so essentially any ticket can be canceled and those funds credited to a future flight. It's all still "no cost or hassle" to the consultant since they aren't paying for the flights to begin with.
- shagie 2y ago
  Delays getting to the airport and missing the plane. Cancelations with full refund. "Hidden city" ticketing. Layover delays. Businesses booking blocks. Flexible flights ( https://www.travelperk.com/guides/flexible-travel/flexible-flights/ https://www.travelperk.com/guides/flexible-travel/flexible-f... ). Changing / rebooking flights for an earlier or later time.
- packetlost 2y ago
  I'm sure other factors such as sudden illness and migrateable tickets make a sizeable chunk too.
- vidarh 2y ago
  Keep in mind they sell a lot of tickets where one of the features that allows for a premium price is that they allow late cancellations or changes to other flights. Holiday travelers are pretty "reliable", but business travelers might have changed needs at the drop of a hat (say you meet another prospective client on a business trip and decide to stay another day to fit in a face-to-face meeting).
- Spooky23 2y ago
  Remember lots of business travelers have connections or flex schedules. When I had to go to the West coast for business, I usually have full fare tickets and book a later flight. If I had flexibility, I’d switch to an earlier plane or first class.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  European airports in 2019: A lot of these would be 10 euro Ryanair/Easyjet/Whatever flights, probably. (The really ultra cheap Ryanair flights are less of a thing now, but in 2019 they were very much a factor)

SteveNuts 2y ago

That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections? I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.

lhoff 2y ago
A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights. Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.
- listenallyall 2y ago
  No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.
  - danielheath 2y ago
    ... or perhaps they prioritize ensuring their consultants feel like they're being looked after - replacing them when they find another job is very expensive.
    - listenallyall 2y ago
      What part of my comment suggests consultants aren't "looked after?" The idea that the consultants' personal time is so low on the scale of priorities that the company prefers to pay 3x or 4x for plane tickets to ensure they are available to spend extra time with clients, rather than their families, suggests that the company is specifically NOT looking after the consultants' well-being.
      - dullcrisp 2y ago
        Yeah, replace consultants with clients in that comment and you’ll have the right of it.
      - pc86 2y ago
        That the consultants' personal time is high on the scale is why they pay for the flex-fare tickets. So you miss an 8pm flight for one reason or another - it happens, so "don't miss the flight" isn't a valid retort. Do I feel better taken care of if I can just take the following morning's flight at no additional cost or hassle, or if I now need to contact someone at Amex Global Business Travel, have them try to get me on a flight, have another expense, potentially not be able to get on the next flight or the one after that, etc.
        listenallyall 2y ago
        The company can start with heavily-discounted restricted tickets and eat them when a consultant needs to extend the trip. Today it's even easier because airlines have eliminated change fees - so essentially any ticket can be canceled and those funds credited to a future flight. It's all still "no cost or hassle" to the consultant since they aren't paying for the flights to begin with.
shagie 2y ago
Delays getting to the airport and missing the plane. Cancelations with full refund. "Hidden city" ticketing. Layover delays. Businesses booking blocks. Flexible flights ( https://www.travelperk.com/guides/flexible-travel/flexible-flights/ https://www.travelperk.com/guides/flexible-travel/flexible-f... ). Changing / rebooking flights for an earlier or later time.
packetlost 2y ago
I'm sure other factors such as sudden illness and migrateable tickets make a sizeable chunk too.
vidarh 2y ago
Keep in mind they sell a lot of tickets where one of the features that allows for a premium price is that they allow late cancellations or changes to other flights. Holiday travelers are pretty "reliable", but business travelers might have changed needs at the drop of a hat (say you meet another prospective client on a business trip and decide to stay another day to fit in a face-to-face meeting).
Spooky23 2y ago
Remember lots of business travelers have connections or flex schedules. When I had to go to the West coast for business, I usually have full fare tickets and book a later flight. If I had flexibility, I’d switch to an earlier plane or first class.
rsynnott 2y ago
European airports in 2019: A lot of these would be 10 euro Ryanair/Easyjet/Whatever flights, probably. (The really ultra cheap Ryanair flights are less of a thing now, but in 2019 they were very much a factor)