6 ms·

Does the fact that an airline booking system must be perfect explain why so many flights are overbooked or cancelled?

rconti 2y ago
No, overbooking is a business decision justified by the fact that, statistically, not all passengers will actually show up for their flight, and lower load factors cost money.
- josefresco 2y ago
  What is the "no show" rate?
  - nightpool 2y ago
    A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-no-show-rates-2020-vs-2019/#:~:text=The%202019%20no%2Dshow%20rates%20among%20the%20airports%20sampled%20demonstrate%20stability%2C%20averaging%2014.40%25%20throughout%20the%20year.%20January%20demonstrated%20the%20lowest%20no%2Dshow%20rate%20at%2014.35%25%20whilst%20August%20witnessed%20a%20peak%20at%2018.30%25%20(%2B3.95%25). https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-n... However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)
    - SteveNuts 2y ago
      That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections? I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.
      - lhoff 2y ago
        A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights. Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.
        listenallyall 2y ago
        No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.
        danielheath 2y ago
        ... or perhaps they prioritize ensuring their consultants feel like they're being looked after - replacing them when they find another job is very expensive.
        listenallyall 2y ago
        What part of my comment suggests consultants aren't "looked after?" The idea that the consultants' personal time is so low on the scale of priorities that the company prefers to pay 3x or 4x for plane tickets to ensure they are available to spend extra time with clients, rather than their families, suggests that the company is specifically NOT looking after the consultants' well-being.
        dullcrisp 2y ago
        Yeah, replace consultants with clients in that comment and you’ll have the right of it.
  - artee_49 2y ago
    I think you'll have to pay a team millions to figure that out, it is unlikely to be a static rate but rather decided based on multiple traits like time of year, time of flight, distance of flight, cost of ticket, etc.
    - pc86 2y ago
      The airline has literally all of the data on this, they definitely do not have to pay a team millions.
      - patmorgan23 2y ago
        They probably do pay millions of dollars in wages for business analysts to figure out what this rate is on their flights.
        pc86 2y ago
        They probably just have an SSRS report that prints out in a few dozen offices automatically on some schedule. I'm not trying to be pedantic but this is table stakes stuff. I know we're supposed to shy away from saying things like this but compared to the other engineering that airlines have to do, this is easy. It costs - at most, including wages - a few tens of thousands of dollars yearly to come up with these figures. It's a fraction of the salary of one United Airlines BA.[0] This cost might go up if one of the senior developers convinces their boss that this needs to be a machine learning model but unless they're resume pumping it's going to be at most PCA and a regression. This is not a team of people working for months on this one thing. [0] https://www.glassdoor.com/job-listing/analyst-revenue-management-planning-development-and-science-united-airlines-JV_IC1128808_KO0,59_KE60,75.htm?jl=1009629673530&cs=1_b56e20ee&s=21&t=ESR&pos=124&src=GD_JOB_AD&guid=00000195238e271984f2cf7b5a99ddef&uido=23E292653D6E014F&jobListingId=1009629673530&ao=1136043&vt=w&jrtk=5-yul1-0-1ikhos9t5l6ht80d-bc06354f3cc1826a&cb=1740058274006&ctt=1740058327310&srs=EI_JOBS https://www.glassdoor.com/job-listing/analyst-revenue-manage...
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

No, overbooking is a business decision justified by the fact that, statistically, not all passengers will actually show up for their flight, and lower load factors cost money.

josefresco 2y ago
What is the "no show" rate?
- nightpool 2y ago
  A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-no-show-rates-2020-vs-2019/#:~:text=The%202019%20no%2Dshow%20rates%20among%20the%20airports%20sampled%20demonstrate%20stability%2C%20averaging%2014.40%25%20throughout%20the%20year.%20January%20demonstrated%20the%20lowest%20no%2Dshow%20rate%20at%2014.35%25%20whilst%20August%20witnessed%20a%20peak%20at%2018.30%25%20(%2B3.95%25). https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-n... However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)
  - SteveNuts 2y ago
    That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections? I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.
    - lhoff 2y ago
      A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights. Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.
      - listenallyall 2y ago
        No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.
        danielheath 2y ago
        ... or perhaps they prioritize ensuring their consultants feel like they're being looked after - replacing them when they find another job is very expensive.
        listenallyall 2y ago
        What part of my comment suggests consultants aren't "looked after?" The idea that the consultants' personal time is so low on the scale of priorities that the company prefers to pay 3x or 4x for plane tickets to ensure they are available to spend extra time with clients, rather than their families, suggests that the company is specifically NOT looking after the consultants' well-being.
        dullcrisp 2y ago
        Yeah, replace consultants with clients in that comment and you’ll have the right of it.
- artee_49 2y ago
  I think you'll have to pay a team millions to figure that out, it is unlikely to be a static rate but rather decided based on multiple traits like time of year, time of flight, distance of flight, cost of ticket, etc.
  - pc86 2y ago
    The airline has literally all of the data on this, they definitely do not have to pay a team millions.
    - patmorgan23 2y ago
      They probably do pay millions of dollars in wages for business analysts to figure out what this rate is on their flights.
      - pc86 2y ago
        They probably just have an SSRS report that prints out in a few dozen offices automatically on some schedule. I'm not trying to be pedantic but this is table stakes stuff. I know we're supposed to shy away from saying things like this but compared to the other engineering that airlines have to do, this is easy. It costs - at most, including wages - a few tens of thousands of dollars yearly to come up with these figures. It's a fraction of the salary of one United Airlines BA.[0] This cost might go up if one of the senior developers convinces their boss that this needs to be a machine learning model but unless they're resume pumping it's going to be at most PCA and a regression. This is not a team of people working for months on this one thing. [0] https://www.glassdoor.com/job-listing/analyst-revenue-management-planning-development-and-science-united-airlines-JV_IC1128808_KO0,59_KE60,75.htm?jl=1009629673530&cs=1_b56e20ee&s=21&t=ESR&pos=124&src=GD_JOB_AD&guid=00000195238e271984f2cf7b5a99ddef&uido=23E292653D6E014F&jobListingId=1009629673530&ao=1136043&vt=w&jrtk=5-yul1-0-1ikhos9t5l6ht80d-bc06354f3cc1826a&cb=1740058274006&ctt=1740058327310&srs=EI_JOBS https://www.glassdoor.com/job-listing/analyst-revenue-manage...

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]