5 ms·

I need HN's classic pessimism to know if this is something to be excited about. Please chime in!

jassyr 2y ago
Whenever I read about a scientific breakthrough I login to HN to see what the smart people think about it, and am disappointed if there isn't a post with hundreds of comments.
- miztrskinnr 2y ago
  This isn’t a forum of smart people. It’s a forum of asocial tech workers who write in authoritative prose but are just normal people at home staring blankly at a blue glow of a mental bug zapper Quantum is just the next form of sampling the electromagnetic field. It’ll provide mesmerizing computational properties but not rewrite human DNA or beam our consciousness to another galaxy; it’ll fill up RAM and disk really fast with impenetrable amount of data it will take decades to analyze and build real experiments across contexts to verify. Tomorrow will still come and be a lot like yesterday for us. All in all it’s more of the same Even if it we do beam our minds it’s just a copy. These meat suits still gonna stop experiencing someday. Life for us isn’t going anywhere.
  - dcist 2y ago
    Now THIS is the sort of nihilistic outlook that keeps me coming back for a hit of HN.
    - jassyr 2y ago
      It's like some sort of Cunningham's Law Inception.
    - miztrskinnr 2y ago
      Not saying wild things aren’t possible; designer drug glands grafted on and such would be banger and would alter human lived experience. Another box measuring oscillations of fundamental forces will not. Religious fear of “corrupting human nature” keeps smart people scaffolding symbolic logic in machines versus experimenting with weird science. Live, eat, mate, help line go up relative to some musty people’s political ledger, and die is all we’re allowed! I want drug glands, regenerative tissue, and mini kaiju monstrosities grown in labs… as pets! What’s actually up in 2025?… “Behold! Nintendo Switch 2!”
  - oldgradstudent 2y ago
    > It’ll provide mesmerizing computational properties Maybe, one day, or never. In the mean time, it will generate a lot of hot and humid hype.
  - drpossum 2y ago
    You had me up to "normal people" > but not rewrite human DNA smugly but writing DNA is a quantum process
  - badlibrarian 2y ago
    > people at home staring blankly at a blue glow of a mental bug zapper Nonsense. Many of us have installed that glitchy software that makes our screens orange sometimes.
- hulitu 2y ago
  We are talking about "Microsoft scientific breakthrough" here.
Analemma_ 2y ago
I wouldn't trust HN one bit (or one qubit) to comment usefully on this question, but presumably hundreds of people are already bugging Scott Aaronson to blog about it. He'll probably have a post in the next couple days saying whether we have permission to be excited.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
drpossum 2y ago
Just look at all the hard numbers they provided after you strip away the hype talk.
kandesbunzler 2y ago
[flagged]
bob1029 2y ago
> "Every single atom in this chip is placed purposefully. It is constructed from ground up. It is entirely a new state of matter. Think of us as building the picture by painting it atom by atom." https://youtu.be/wSHmygPQukQ https://youtu.be/wSHmygPQukQ (~7:55) I don't know if marketing BS could get more hyperbolic than this.
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  AI hype is running out of steam, the stock needs quantum power. MSFT is only up 1.99% for the past 1Y.
  - ykonstant 2y ago
    Hear me out, investors: Quantum Intelligence.
    - porridgeraisin 2y ago
      You're late to the game: https://quantumai.google/ https://quantumai.google/
    - hulitu 2y ago
      > Hear me out, investors: Quantum Intelligence. This fits Microsoft. If you know where it is, you surely cannot assess what it can do. /s
- crystal_revenge 2y ago
  Right off the bat "can scale to a million qubits" tells you it's BS since it only says what could be possible but makes zero claims about what it current does. I mean my basement can scale to holding thousands of bars of solid gold, but currently houses... 0.
  - spr-alex 2y ago
    yeah, nobody can claim scaling without having the error to prove it. SPAM + coherence time + gate fidelity are the limiting factors to scaling, not the concept of an idea of how to build it at scale :-)
tmvphil 2y ago
I work in the field. While all players are selling a dream right now, this announcement is even more farcical. Majoranas are still trying to get to the point where they have even one qubit that could be said to exist and whose performance can be quantified. The majorana approach (compared with more mature technologies like superconducting circuits or trapped ions) is a long game, where there are theoretical reasons to be optimistic, but where experimental reality is so far behind. It might work in the long run, but we're not there yet.
- hdjjhhvvhga 2y ago
  >> I need HN's classic pessimism to know if this is something to be excited about. Please chime in! > While all players are selling a dream right now, this announcement is even more farcical. Thanks a lot, I didn't get disappointed.
  - kjellsbells 2y ago
    Another take, to feed your cynicism: MSFT need money to keep investing in this sort of science. By posting announcements like this they hope to become the obvious place for investors interested in quantum to park their money. Stock price goes brrr, MSFT wins. More cynical still: what exactly has the Strategic Missions and Technologies unit achieved in the last few years? Burned a few billion on Azure for Operators, and sold it off. Got entangled and ultimately lost the JEDI mega deal at the DoD. Was notably not the unit that developed or brought in AI to Microsoft. Doing anything in quantum is good news for whoever leads this division, and they need it. On the bright side, this is still fundamentally something to be celebrated. Years ago major corporations did basic science research and we are all better off for those folk. With the uncertainty around the future of science funding in the US right now, I at least draw some comfort in the fact that its still happening. My jaded-ness about press releases in no way diminishes my respect for the science that the lab people are publishing.
    - benhauer 2y ago
      Does MSFT sell new stock? If not, how does the stock price going up affect their ability to invest?

Whenever I read about a scientific breakthrough I login to HN to see what the smart people think about it, and am disappointed if there isn't a post with hundreds of comments.

miztrskinnr 2y ago
This isn’t a forum of smart people. It’s a forum of asocial tech workers who write in authoritative prose but are just normal people at home staring blankly at a blue glow of a mental bug zapper Quantum is just the next form of sampling the electromagnetic field. It’ll provide mesmerizing computational properties but not rewrite human DNA or beam our consciousness to another galaxy; it’ll fill up RAM and disk really fast with impenetrable amount of data it will take decades to analyze and build real experiments across contexts to verify. Tomorrow will still come and be a lot like yesterday for us. All in all it’s more of the same Even if it we do beam our minds it’s just a copy. These meat suits still gonna stop experiencing someday. Life for us isn’t going anywhere.
- dcist 2y ago
  Now THIS is the sort of nihilistic outlook that keeps me coming back for a hit of HN.
  - jassyr 2y ago
    It's like some sort of Cunningham's Law Inception.
  - miztrskinnr 2y ago
    Not saying wild things aren’t possible; designer drug glands grafted on and such would be banger and would alter human lived experience. Another box measuring oscillations of fundamental forces will not. Religious fear of “corrupting human nature” keeps smart people scaffolding symbolic logic in machines versus experimenting with weird science. Live, eat, mate, help line go up relative to some musty people’s political ledger, and die is all we’re allowed! I want drug glands, regenerative tissue, and mini kaiju monstrosities grown in labs… as pets! What’s actually up in 2025?… “Behold! Nintendo Switch 2!”
- oldgradstudent 2y ago
  > It’ll provide mesmerizing computational properties Maybe, one day, or never. In the mean time, it will generate a lot of hot and humid hype.
- drpossum 2y ago
  You had me up to "normal people" > but not rewrite human DNA smugly but writing DNA is a quantum process
- badlibrarian 2y ago
  > people at home staring blankly at a blue glow of a mental bug zapper Nonsense. Many of us have installed that glitchy software that makes our screens orange sometimes.
hulitu 2y ago
We are talking about "Microsoft scientific breakthrough" here.

Analemma_ 2y ago

I wouldn't trust HN one bit (or one qubit) to comment usefully on this question, but presumably hundreds of people are already bugging Scott Aaronson to blog about it. He'll probably have a post in the next couple days saying whether we have permission to be excited.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

drpossum 2y ago

Just look at all the hard numbers they provided after you strip away the hype talk.

kandesbunzler 2y ago

[flagged]

bob1029 2y ago

> "Every single atom in this chip is placed purposefully. It is constructed from ground up. It is entirely a new state of matter. Think of us as building the picture by painting it atom by atom." https://youtu.be/wSHmygPQukQ https://youtu.be/wSHmygPQukQ (~7:55) I don't know if marketing BS could get more hyperbolic than this.

Mistletoe 2y ago
AI hype is running out of steam, the stock needs quantum power. MSFT is only up 1.99% for the past 1Y.
- ykonstant 2y ago
  Hear me out, investors: Quantum Intelligence.
  - porridgeraisin 2y ago
    You're late to the game: https://quantumai.google/ https://quantumai.google/
  - hulitu 2y ago
    > Hear me out, investors: Quantum Intelligence. This fits Microsoft. If you know where it is, you surely cannot assess what it can do. /s
crystal_revenge 2y ago
Right off the bat "can scale to a million qubits" tells you it's BS since it only says what could be possible but makes zero claims about what it current does. I mean my basement can scale to holding thousands of bars of solid gold, but currently houses... 0.
- spr-alex 2y ago
  yeah, nobody can claim scaling without having the error to prove it. SPAM + coherence time + gate fidelity are the limiting factors to scaling, not the concept of an idea of how to build it at scale :-)

tmvphil 2y ago

I work in the field. While all players are selling a dream right now, this announcement is even more farcical. Majoranas are still trying to get to the point where they have even one qubit that could be said to exist and whose performance can be quantified. The majorana approach (compared with more mature technologies like superconducting circuits or trapped ions) is a long game, where there are theoretical reasons to be optimistic, but where experimental reality is so far behind. It might work in the long run, but we're not there yet.

hdjjhhvvhga 2y ago
>> I need HN's classic pessimism to know if this is something to be excited about. Please chime in! > While all players are selling a dream right now, this announcement is even more farcical. Thanks a lot, I didn't get disappointed.
- kjellsbells 2y ago
  Another take, to feed your cynicism: MSFT need money to keep investing in this sort of science. By posting announcements like this they hope to become the obvious place for investors interested in quantum to park their money. Stock price goes brrr, MSFT wins. More cynical still: what exactly has the Strategic Missions and Technologies unit achieved in the last few years? Burned a few billion on Azure for Operators, and sold it off. Got entangled and ultimately lost the JEDI mega deal at the DoD. Was notably not the unit that developed or brought in AI to Microsoft. Doing anything in quantum is good news for whoever leads this division, and they need it. On the bright side, this is still fundamentally something to be celebrated. Years ago major corporations did basic science research and we are all better off for those folk. With the uncertainty around the future of science funding in the US right now, I at least draw some comfort in the fact that its still happening. My jaded-ness about press releases in no way diminishes my respect for the science that the lab people are publishing.
  - benhauer 2y ago
    Does MSFT sell new stock? If not, how does the stock price going up affect their ability to invest?