ESA says 2.8%. Note how they also indicate the percentages for these strikes are not like a weather forecast that ebb and flow; the likelihood if impact will in

ESA says 2.8%. Note how they also indicate the percentages for these strikes are not like a weather forecast that ebb and flow; the likelihood if impact will increase as the prediction corridor narrows until Earth moves out of the projection corridor and the chance drops to 0%. Of course, that's not a reason for monitoring agencies to be complacent or for us to just assume there is no danger here. https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/02/04/asteroid-2024-yr4-latest-updates/ https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/02/04/asteroid-2024...