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There are large error bars right now. The percentages will likely increase and increase as the error bars reduce and the earth takes up a larger and larger spac
by LandR 2y ago
There are large error bars right now. The percentages will likely increase and increase as the error bars reduce and the earth takes up a larger and larger space in the potential zone it can pass through.
Up until the earth is outside that zone and the chance drops to zero. So expect the "percentage chance" to keep rising until they have enough to data to rule it out entirely.
- Vecr 2y agoWhy can't they get all that over with now and say what they think the actual chance is?
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y agoI think you'll find that what's been said is the best current knowledge. Why can't astronomy be a more exact science? Well, how much are you willing to contribute to launching more space telescopes for this? And is the budget for NASA currently increasing or not? ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 )
- Vecr 2y agoCities on the impact path could be asked for funding.