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> The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia -- though Moissl
by markus_zhang 2y ago
> The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia -- though Moissl emphasized it is far too early for people to consider drastic decisions like relocation.
I wonder when can we have a good estimation? Like 95% confidence on a radius of 1,000kms.
- Vecr 2y agoIf that's correct, now is the exact time you should consider relocation. If there's a rush, you will be in trouble.
- markus_zhang 2y agoThe thing is, I'm not sure whether it's correct. But I'm in North America so not too bad unless the band moves a few thousand miles to the north.
- stouset 2y agoThe band is pretty accurate. We know at what point it will intersect Earth’s orbit to a high degree. We don’t know what time it will do so. If it passes by sooner or later than the critical window, it will miss. If it passes by while Earth is in the way, the location will be determined by Earth’s rotation and exact position in orbit. That last part is the uncertain bit.
- tim333 2y agoIt looks like they should have the line of possible impact and time of possible impact down fairly well as it approaches so it would probably only be necessary to drive a couple of hours, have an asteroid watch party and then drive a couple of hours back for most people. Of course if it took out your home then things might be awkward. Maybe take a tent.
- Vecr 2y agoThat won't work. Look at planning done for city evacuation in the past.
- ourmandave 2y agoIs there an app I can download, or maybe a google earth plugin, that puts a big red shadow over places that are fucked by incoming asteroids or global warming? Call it the You Probably Want To Move app. And a pay version so I don't have to see pop-up Realtor ads.
- markus_zhang 2y agoMaybe "You might want to move" now, "You probably want to move" in 5 years, and "You definitely should move" at the end game?
- jagger27 2y agoBecause we know its inclination, the band where it could strike is already quite narrow. See 12:15 of this video. https://youtu.be/Esk1hg2knno?si=RutVFoj_A5r_PNId https://youtu.be/Esk1hg2knno?si=RutVFoj_A5r_PNId
- echelon 2y agoMap with city labels: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/2/18/2304478/-Update-on-Potential-City-Killer-Asteroid-and-its-Possible-Targets https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/2/18/2304478/-Update-o... Map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4
- rich_sasha 2y agoGreat links. Much of it is sparsely populated, but the Mumbai conurbation is 23 million. Much humans.