4 ms·

A 3.1% chance of _anything_, good or bad, is negligible.

by johncoltrane 2y ago

ozmodiar 2y ago
Say that to all the Ironman XCom games I've had ruined by a missed 99% shot.
jslezak 2y ago
What would you need to be paid to accept a 3 percent risk in Russian Roulette?
- high_na_euv 2y ago
  700k after tax
  - wonderwonder 2y ago
    A man that knows his value!
    - redeux 2y ago
      Death is certain. Making $1M in a single shot is anything but.
SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
3% chance of it happening this time is not much. But with enough repeats over time, it eventually becomes inevitable.
- metalman 2y ago
  or, if there is any likelyhood of there bieng 32 more such asteroids, now, it is inevitable but to pose a significant risk to a habitated place, would take many more than 33 asteroids then there is luck, call it further uncertinty if you must but what we can predict with 100% certainty is increased budgets for space defence, and lots of start up rocket companys pivoting in that direction
high_na_euv 2y ago
Unless their estimations are wrong
- LandR 2y ago
  There are large error bars right now. The percentages will likely increase and increase as the error bars reduce and the earth takes up a larger and larger space in the potential zone it can pass through. Up until the earth is outside that zone and the chance drops to zero. So expect the "percentage chance" to keep rising until they have enough to data to rule it out entirely.
  - Vecr 2y ago
    Why can't they get all that over with now and say what they think the actual chance is?
    - SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
      I think you'll find that what's been said is the best current knowledge. Why can't astronomy be a more exact science? Well, how much are you willing to contribute to launching more space telescopes for this? And is the budget for NASA currently increasing or not? ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 )
      - Vecr 2y ago
        Cities on the impact path could be asked for funding.
sph 2y ago
> A 3.1% chance of _anything_, good or bad, is negligible. Only if your definition of negligible is <= 3.1%. In many context, those are unacceptable odds. Your comment reminds me of: https://bash-org-archive.com/?2999 https://bash-org-archive.com/?2999
impossiblefork 2y ago
No? It's more than half the probability of getting a critical in D&D, which is something that happens all the time. If during a particular day you judge that you have a 3.1% chance of running into another car due to winter weather and no winter tyres, you leave the car home that day.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
retrac98 2y ago
If your plane had a 3.1% chance of crashing, would you get on?
- johncoltrane 2y ago
  Yes.
7222aafdcf68cfe 2y ago
When managing risks, the likelihood of something happening is only half the equation, you also need to consider the impact when it happens. A 3.1% probability of a catastrophic outcome is a high, and possibly unacceptable level of risk. We also must consider that the likelihood for this specific event has been increasing, no one says this is as high as it goes.
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
  > We also must consider that the likelihood for this specific event has been increasing, no one says this is as high as it goes. As the measurement of the asteroid's position and velocity becomes more accurate, it's going to increase (still possible with smaller error bars on the measurement) or be set to zero.
- XorNot 2y ago
  Yes but keep in mind that due to how trajectories are determined, the probability will keep going up until it suddenly drops to zero once its refined enough (i.e. the cone of futures can shrink while still including Earth - just less of Earth - for a while before suddenly it's accurate enough that it doesn't).
thatguy0900 2y ago
I can tell you haven't played any mmos lol. That's not a bad droprate
andrewmcwatters 2y ago
The best way I've found to grasp an applied understanding of percentages at large scales for any layperson is to think of spelling errors by the percentage of words in a book. 3.1/100 sounds negligible at first, doesn't it? But now think about if every 3 words per 100 in a book were misspelt. Think about how much more critical this would be in safety situations. What about 3 of every 100 cars getting in an accident on the nearest interstate highway by your home? Surely in one day that would be a historical amount in any major metro. It would be national news.
rsynnott 2y ago
If you were told, by a credible source, that there was a 3.1% chance that you'd be eaten by a tiger the next time you stepped outside your door, you'd probably be at least a little nervous.
piva00 2y ago
Negligible is definitely not in the 3% range, that's a 1/33 odd, the odds of a professional bowler doing a perfect game are 1/460 and those games happen quite often. I don't think you understand statistics.

A 3.1% chance of _anything_, good or bad, is negligible.

ozmodiar 2y ago

Say that to all the Ironman XCom games I've had ruined by a missed 99% shot.

jslezak 2y ago

What would you need to be paid to accept a 3 percent risk in Russian Roulette?

high_na_euv 2y ago
700k after tax
- wonderwonder 2y ago
  A man that knows his value!
  - redeux 2y ago
    Death is certain. Making $1M in a single shot is anything but.

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago

3% chance of it happening this time is not much. But with enough repeats over time, it eventually becomes inevitable.

metalman 2y ago
or, if there is any likelyhood of there bieng 32 more such asteroids, now, it is inevitable but to pose a significant risk to a habitated place, would take many more than 33 asteroids then there is luck, call it further uncertinty if you must but what we can predict with 100% certainty is increased budgets for space defence, and lots of start up rocket companys pivoting in that direction

high_na_euv 2y ago

Unless their estimations are wrong

LandR 2y ago
There are large error bars right now. The percentages will likely increase and increase as the error bars reduce and the earth takes up a larger and larger space in the potential zone it can pass through. Up until the earth is outside that zone and the chance drops to zero. So expect the "percentage chance" to keep rising until they have enough to data to rule it out entirely.
- Vecr 2y ago
  Why can't they get all that over with now and say what they think the actual chance is?
  - SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
    I think you'll find that what's been said is the best current knowledge. Why can't astronomy be a more exact science? Well, how much are you willing to contribute to launching more space telescopes for this? And is the budget for NASA currently increasing or not? ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 )
    - Vecr 2y ago
      Cities on the impact path could be asked for funding.

sph 2y ago

> A 3.1% chance of _anything_, good or bad, is negligible. Only if your definition of negligible is <= 3.1%. In many context, those are unacceptable odds. Your comment reminds me of: https://bash-org-archive.com/?2999 https://bash-org-archive.com/?2999

impossiblefork 2y ago

No? It's more than half the probability of getting a critical in D&D, which is something that happens all the time. If during a particular day you judge that you have a 3.1% chance of running into another car due to winter weather and no winter tyres, you leave the car home that day.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

retrac98 2y ago

If your plane had a 3.1% chance of crashing, would you get on?

johncoltrane 2y ago
Yes.

7222aafdcf68cfe 2y ago

When managing risks, the likelihood of something happening is only half the equation, you also need to consider the impact when it happens. A 3.1% probability of a catastrophic outcome is a high, and possibly unacceptable level of risk. We also must consider that the likelihood for this specific event has been increasing, no one says this is as high as it goes.

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
> We also must consider that the likelihood for this specific event has been increasing, no one says this is as high as it goes. As the measurement of the asteroid's position and velocity becomes more accurate, it's going to increase (still possible with smaller error bars on the measurement) or be set to zero.
XorNot 2y ago
Yes but keep in mind that due to how trajectories are determined, the probability will keep going up until it suddenly drops to zero once its refined enough (i.e. the cone of futures can shrink while still including Earth - just less of Earth - for a while before suddenly it's accurate enough that it doesn't).

thatguy0900 2y ago

I can tell you haven't played any mmos lol. That's not a bad droprate

andrewmcwatters 2y ago

The best way I've found to grasp an applied understanding of percentages at large scales for any layperson is to think of spelling errors by the percentage of words in a book. 3.1/100 sounds negligible at first, doesn't it? But now think about if every 3 words per 100 in a book were misspelt. Think about how much more critical this would be in safety situations. What about 3 of every 100 cars getting in an accident on the nearest interstate highway by your home? Surely in one day that would be a historical amount in any major metro. It would be national news.

rsynnott 2y ago

If you were told, by a credible source, that there was a 3.1% chance that you'd be eaten by a tiger the next time you stepped outside your door, you'd probably be at least a little nervous.

piva00 2y ago

Negligible is definitely not in the 3% range, that's a 1/33 odd, the odds of a professional bowler doing a perfect game are 1/460 and those games happen quite often. I don't think you understand statistics.