The odds increasing from 2% to 3% mean it's 3% likely to hit us, which is more than 2%, yes. But the steady increase so far does not imply a continued future i

The odds increasing from 2% to 3% mean it's 3% likely to hit us, which is more than 2%, yes. But the steady increase so far does not imply a continued future increase, that the true probability is much higher. He is addressing a normal human tendency to predict trends.