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NASA says 'City killer' asteroid now has 3.1% chance of hitting Earth
- johncoltrane 2y agoA 3.1% chance of _anything_, good or bad, is negligible.
- ozmodiar 2y agoSay that to all the Ironman XCom games I've had ruined by a missed 99% shot.
- jslezak 2y agoWhat would you need to be paid to accept a 3 percent risk in Russian Roulette?
- high_na_euv 2y ago700k after tax
- wonderwonder 2y agoA man that knows his value!
- redeux 2y agoDeath is certain. Making $1M in a single shot is anything but.
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago3% chance of it happening this time is not much. But with enough repeats over time, it eventually becomes inevitable.
- metalman 2y agoor, if there is any likelyhood of there bieng 32 more such asteroids, now, it is inevitable but to pose a significant risk to a habitated place, would take many more than 33 asteroids then there is luck, call it further uncertinty if you must but what we can predict with 100% certainty is increased budgets for space defence, and lots of start up rocket companys pivoting in that direction
- high_na_euv 2y agoUnless their estimations are wrong
- LandR 2y agoThere are large error bars right now. The percentages will likely increase and increase as the error bars reduce and the earth takes up a larger and larger space in the potential zone it can pass through. Up until the earth is outside that zone and the chance drops to zero. So expect the "percentage chance" to keep rising until they have enough to data to rule it out entirely.
- Vecr 2y agoWhy can't they get all that over with now and say what they think the actual chance is?
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y agoI think you'll find that what's been said is the best current knowledge. Why can't astronomy be a more exact science? Well, how much are you willing to contribute to launching more space telescopes for this? And is the budget for NASA currently increasing or not? ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43090862 )
- Vecr 2y agoCities on the impact path could be asked for funding.
- sph 2y ago> A 3.1% chance of _anything_, good or bad, is negligible. Only if your definition of negligible is <= 3.1%. In many context, those are unacceptable odds. Your comment reminds me of: https://bash-org-archive.com/?2999 https://bash-org-archive.com/?2999
- impossiblefork 2y agoNo? It's more than half the probability of getting a critical in D&D, which is something that happens all the time. If during a particular day you judge that you have a 3.1% chance of running into another car due to winter weather and no winter tyres, you leave the car home that day.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- retrac98 2y agoIf your plane had a 3.1% chance of crashing, would you get on?
- johncoltrane 2y agoYes.
- 7222aafdcf68cfe 2y agoWhen managing risks, the likelihood of something happening is only half the equation, you also need to consider the impact when it happens. A 3.1% probability of a catastrophic outcome is a high, and possibly unacceptable level of risk. We also must consider that the likelihood for this specific event has been increasing, no one says this is as high as it goes.
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago> We also must consider that the likelihood for this specific event has been increasing, no one says this is as high as it goes. As the measurement of the asteroid's position and velocity becomes more accurate, it's going to increase (still possible with smaller error bars on the measurement) or be set to zero.
- XorNot 2y agoYes but keep in mind that due to how trajectories are determined, the probability will keep going up until it suddenly drops to zero once its refined enough (i.e. the cone of futures can shrink while still including Earth - just less of Earth - for a while before suddenly it's accurate enough that it doesn't).
- thatguy0900 2y agoI can tell you haven't played any mmos lol. That's not a bad droprate
- andrewmcwatters 2y agoThe best way I've found to grasp an applied understanding of percentages at large scales for any layperson is to think of spelling errors by the percentage of words in a book. 3.1/100 sounds negligible at first, doesn't it? But now think about if every 3 words per 100 in a book were misspelt. Think about how much more critical this would be in safety situations. What about 3 of every 100 cars getting in an accident on the nearest interstate highway by your home? Surely in one day that would be a historical amount in any major metro. It would be national news.
- rsynnott 2y agoIf you were told, by a credible source, that there was a 3.1% chance that you'd be eaten by a tiger the next time you stepped outside your door, you'd probably be at least a little nervous.
- piva00 2y agoNegligible is definitely not in the 3% range, that's a 1/33 odd, the odds of a professional bowler doing a perfect game are 1/460 and those games happen quite often. I don't think you understand statistics.
- markus_zhang 2y ago> The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia -- though Moissl emphasized it is far too early for people to consider drastic decisions like relocation. I wonder when can we have a good estimation? Like 95% confidence on a radius of 1,000kms.
- Vecr 2y agoIf that's correct, now is the exact time you should consider relocation. If there's a rush, you will be in trouble.
- markus_zhang 2y agoThe thing is, I'm not sure whether it's correct. But I'm in North America so not too bad unless the band moves a few thousand miles to the north.
- stouset 2y agoThe band is pretty accurate. We know at what point it will intersect Earth’s orbit to a high degree. We don’t know what time it will do so. If it passes by sooner or later than the critical window, it will miss. If it passes by while Earth is in the way, the location will be determined by Earth’s rotation and exact position in orbit. That last part is the uncertain bit.
- tim333 2y agoIt looks like they should have the line of possible impact and time of possible impact down fairly well as it approaches so it would probably only be necessary to drive a couple of hours, have an asteroid watch party and then drive a couple of hours back for most people. Of course if it took out your home then things might be awkward. Maybe take a tent.
- Vecr 2y agoThat won't work. Look at planning done for city evacuation in the past.
- _fat_santa 2y ago> "Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy and good," he added, But as astronomers gather more data, he explained, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero. This seems like it's more of a data anomaly then a real chance. I'm personally not worried because what is worrying gonna do. If this thing is really on a collision course with Earth and will strike and wipe us all out then I guess that's how we all go out. I'm honestly curious though if something like this is a "city killer" or a "world killer".
- Mistletoe 2y ago> Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 metres) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid. Definitely not a world killer, right?
- williamcotton 2y agoAn object of this size would likely be an airburst on the order of 5 megatons. The largest nuclear explosion was at least 50 megatons. And 90% of the planet is sparsely populated.
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoNot a world killer. A city killer, though.
- LandR 2y agoCity killer. From what I've read it's estimated at 8MT or so. A large nuke.
- throwingrocks 2y agoFrom the article > This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city
- 01HNNWZ0MV43FF 2y ago
- bmackenty 2y ago[dead]
- williamcotton 2y agoOdds of dying in a car crash in a lifetime? A little over 1%. Some other odds: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/ https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-o...
- card_zero 2y agoGood lord, that's unpleasantly likely, I wouldn't like to roll a D100 for actual death. A lot of these are circumstantial, for instance I'm not at all likely to die of an opioid overdose, similar to how my grandmother survived the Titanic by never setting foot outside her village. But a 1 in 91 chance of dying by just falling off something? I wonder what that thing mostly is. Stairs, probably.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- tim333 2y agoI think the leading category of fall deaths are elderly just tripping over on the flat and bashing their head or such like. See eg https://www.clearvuehealth.com/images/fall-mortality-statistics.002.jpg https://www.clearvuehealth.com/images/fall-mortality-statist...
- echelon 2y ago> Odds of dying in a car crash in a lifetime? A little over 1%. People don't worry about this statistic enough. That's huge.
- noname120 2y agoInteresting! I wish the article didn't just take the binary alive/dead criteria. I suspect that stuff like dog attacks, pedestrian incidents, hot surfaces, etc. are way more likely to leave you handicapped or disfigured rather than killing you.
- voidUpdate 2y agoAt this point, just bring it. I'm sure it can't make everything much worse than it already is here
- echelon 2y agoIf the paths released are accurate, there are major population centers along its path. We certainly do not want an impact to human life or infrastructure. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/2/18/2304478/-Update-on-Potential-City-Killer-Asteroid-and-its-Possible-Targets https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/2/18/2304478/-Update-o...
- perihelions 2y agoFWIW, this is still below the background hazard (the Palermo scale[0] is negative). This type of object (size + probability) generically exists all the time. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palermo_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palermo_scale ("A rating of 0 means the hazard is equivalent to the background hazard (defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact).")
- cgcrob 2y agoI can help thinking about our current tech and political leadership and the film “don’t look up” when I read this.
- herculity275 2y agoEh the movie works as an allegory for the Climate Change because they add contrived reasons as to why the Capital would be against blowing up the asteroid. In a non-allegorical setting where such reasons don't exist I can see the current world leaders loving nothing more than blowing up a rock in space.
- stouset 2y agoThat exact sentence is what worries me the most. Maybe not this one, but blowing up a planet-killer would be a terrible idea. And given the political climate, you and I both know exactly which party would ignore the data and do it anyway for the spectacle. Gently towing it out of danger gravitationally is for a lot of scenarios the best solution, but it’s boring and if it works the political opposition can just claim it was never going to hit anyway.
- wonderwonder 2y agoWhat's going to be really interesting is what happens when its determined that there is a 95% chance of it hitting Iran or China or a similar geo political foe. Would be fascinating to watch the political deal making. If the asteroid has a 85% chance of destroying Iran's military capability and the US has the ability to stop the asteroid, what does the US do? What concessions does it force from Iran? Who is the current president of the US? Interesting war gaming
- macintux 2y agoI would suspect that by the time we’re able to pick a location with that degree of certainty, it would be too late to do anything about it.
- XorNot 2y agoWe won't know that accurately: atmospheric drag, composition etc. will mean there's a large impact corridor. The chances of actually hitting something populated is also pretty low: there's a lot of ocean, and a lot of empty land.
- wonderwonder 2y agoI have zero skill set to challenge your assertations, I would simply think if we know this thing is coming and we have ~6 years, an awful lot of resources are likely going to be spent figuring out ways to track and potentially divert it. Then again, we may just ignore it, who knows.
- silverquiet 2y agoWe know that climate change is coming with one hundred percent certainty and are doing nothing to stop it. I don't think a few percent chance is going to move the needle much on humanity's collective priorities.
- rsynnott 2y ago> If the asteroid has a 85% chance of destroying Iran's military capability I strongly doubt that Iran's military capability can be destroyed by a single untargeted 8 megatonne airburst. China's _obviously_ cannot. The absolute worst case here is it goes off directly over a city (though, naturally, this is extremely unlikely, most of the world's surface not being covered in city). It's not a country-ending thing.
- Oarch 2y agoPersonally I'm for the jobs the asteroid will create
- acyou 2y agoHopefully it hits the ocean and not a direct hit on a major city. We should compute that probability. Wonder how big the tsunami would be?
- HelloMcFly 2y agoESA says 2.8%. Note how they also indicate the percentages for these strikes are not like a weather forecast that ebb and flow; the likelihood if impact will increase as the prediction corridor narrows until Earth moves out of the projection corridor and the chance drops to 0%. Of course, that's not a reason for monitoring agencies to be complacent or for us to just assume there is no danger here. https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/02/04/asteroid-2024-yr4-latest-updates/ https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/02/04/asteroid-2024...
- bryanlarsen 2y agoThe nominal annual rate for "city killer" sized asteroids hitting Earth is about 1%. Now we have better monitoring, so that 1% rate is getting more variable -- lower in some years, higher in others.
- AndrewOMartin 2y agoRemember, "predicted asteroid impact probability often goes up, then down" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_impact_prediction#Impact_probability_calculation_pattern https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_impact_prediction#Imp...
- someothherguyy 2y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
- ChrisArchitect 2y ago[dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43093851 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43093851
- hackeraccount 2y agoThis is mostly broken window fallacy but if it goes over 50% can you imagine what kind of spending/actions this will instigate? It'll make covid look like a pushover. If you're interested in Space funding that is - that money will come from somewhere so someone's walking away unhappy. Still, I like space funding. I think given 4 or 5 years and a butt load of cash a mitigation scheme can be developed. The spin offs would be tremendous. The potential impact locations could be better placed though. I'm not saying bring it on but ...
- tim333 2y agoI wonder if we have the tech in practice to deflect it if need be?