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In the US, crime basically kept increasing until the 1990s and have been on a downward trend ever since. If you've fallen for the modern crime panic, it's compl
by jmyeet 2y ago
In the US, crime basically kept increasing until the 1990s and have been on a downward trend ever since. If you've fallen for the modern crime panic, it's completely manufactured. Look at any graph that goes back 40+ years and then tell me what the trend is.
The reason for this is hotly debated.
One theory is that it coincides with being 18 years or so after abortion was legalized [1]. The argument is that not forcing people to be parents who don't want to be and aren't equipped to be as well as this skewing to lower socioeconomic status. The link between poverty and crime has been well-established going back to Ancient Greece. In some ways, this is an uncomfortable argument because it's basically eugenics. In support of this, abortion access varied state-to-state by up to several years and the trends tend to follow that.
But this is a US-specific argument and I believe the trend was present in other countries.
The second big argument is removing lead from gasoline (in particular, but also water because of lead pipes) [2].
I really wonder what societal problems and public health incidents in the future will come down to micro-plastics.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_e...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis
- lordgrenville 2y agoMy pet theory is the proliferation of digital entertainment options, and gaming / online culture. There are a lot more ways to keep yourself occupied inside, so less reason to go out and get into trouble.
- cubefox 2y agoPretty sure I heard this theory held by social scientists as well.
- jandrese 2y agoNot just digital, this trend started back in the analog TV era. Gaming consoles certainly contributed as well. Note that the decrease in crime coincides with a decrease in teen pregnancy, but also a decrease in fertility rates in general.
- mcmoor 2y agoAnd there's claim that lead is maybe overrated after all https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/who-gets-exposed-to-lead https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/who-gets-exposed-to-lead
- cubefox 2y agoThanks for this analysis. It says: > With all said and done, it is abundantly clear that the effect of lead on IQ is overestimated and studies claiming that there’s no lower-bound for negative effects have not been adequately testing their hypothesis. Instead of effects of lead, what they've really been testing has largely been stratification of lead exposures by various causes of variation in IQ.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Anotheroneagain 2y agoIt's because people learned that alcohol damages the fetus.
- Merrill 2y ago1990s was the time that the AIDS epidemic took hold. Lots of needle-sharing addicts died, reducing the number of crimes needed to support their habits. AIDS also affected the prison population, further reducing the number of active criminals.