4 ms·
> The Monty Hall problem is only a problem to those who are naive about probability, which is most people, because most of us don't learn any of this stuff earl
by mcphage 2y ago
> The Monty Hall problem is only a problem to those who are naive about probability, which is most people, because most of us don't learn any of this stuff early enough to form long lasting, correct instincts.
I think it’s more than that… we come with some built-in heuristics for probability, which mostly work pretty well. Until they don’t.
- rbtprograms 2y agoi would argue our built in heuristics for probability are pretty bad, which is why the monty hall problem is so hard for most people to grasp (even though it is a relatively straight forward application of probability). probabilistic thinking comes much less naturally to the human mind than deterministic thinking.
- xboxnolifes 2y agoI find that the bad intuition on the monty hall problem is mostly due to the small delta of going from 1 in 3 doors to 1 in 2 doors, combined with some bad human intuition. If you change it to start with 1000 doors, I find it to be a lot more intuitively convincing.
- stavros 2y agoSame here, although I've talked to people who were equally confused with that formulation.