3 ms·

Trump's Pivot Toward Putin's Russia Upends Generations of U.S. Policy

51 points by consumer451 2y ago

consumer451 2y ago
https://archive.md/aYK8s https://archive.md/aYK8s
consumer451 2y ago
This is a truly unbelievable turn of events, as seen from Europe. Negotiating something between Russia and Ukraine is arguably reasonable. However, what the US is now proposing happens to exactly match the Kremlin's wish list. That is not negotiation by any known definition of the term. I would argue that the US aligning with Putin is much more impactful on the future of geopolitics than even Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If anyone could make this make sense, while keeping in the spirit of this website, I would appreciate it.
- jarsin 2y ago
  All at a time when Big Tech is outsourcing US dev jobs to eastern Europe in droves.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - red-iron-pine 2y ago
    Poland is not Russia, nor is Bulgaria, Croatia, et al a spurious correlation
- talldayo 2y ago
  It doesn't make sense, and Ukraine has already stated that they don't agree to any ceasefire they don't personally negotiate. Just yesterday American leadership tried tricking them into signing a deal after levying a (quickly retracted) threat: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-russia-set-begin-high-stakes-talks-ukraines/story?id=118900923 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-russia-set-begin-high-sta... Only Ukraine can sue for peace, and they've stated quite openly that they will not give Russia the land they occupy. Trump's admin can negotiate whatever they want behind closed doors, but Ukrainian leadership has no obligation to listen. Trump doesn't have the leverage he would like with NATO starting to well up the bases of European support.
  - consumer451 2y ago
    I agree with you, and European nations are now proposing a historic $700B deal to support Ukraine. As the USA chooses to end the American Century, my only hope is that the next century will be led not by China, but by Europe. What I don't understand is why people like Musk and Sachs, two very influential Trump admin members, have been perfectly aligned with Putin. For years, they have repeated Kremlin talking points word for word. It's uncanny. Trump himself was accused of being a Moscow stooge for years, and yet came out very strong against Russian aggression during the first weeks of his administration. Suddenly, it's all exactly what Putin wants. What happened? Was it all theater?
    - talldayo 2y ago
      [dead]
  - defrost 2y ago
    As much as I agree with you, there are a good number that think Ukraine has no say in any of this, eg. from: Ukraine not invited to US-Russia peace talks https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43072691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43072691 with an apparent implicit starting point that Ukraine has already lost the war and it's now A-Okay for Russia and the US to divide up the spoils ... NB: downvoters .. shooting the messenger? It's not my belief that Ukraine has no agency here, just an attitude common to backseat wargamers.
    - consumer451 2y ago
      What you linked is such "half-court tennis" thinking about modern geopolitics, that it is staggering. It entirely ignores not only the wishes of the country in question, but the entire continent and economic bloc between the USA and Russia. This is some kind of weird magical thinking where somehow the USA remains influential, as it withdraws from positions of global influence. What happens if the EU and Ukraine don't agree with the US position on Russia? Will the USA threaten and sanction the EU? What other option is the USA leaving itself?
- nickpeterson 2y ago
  When they promised to lower the price of everything I guess they also meant murder.
- chairmansteve 2y ago
  Here's a theory. https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-...
  - IAmGraydon 2y ago
    It’s useless to post paywalled articles. https://archive.is/bEoCT https://archive.is/bEoCT Also, it’s an interesting theory and would make a lot of sense, but it’s presented with literally not one shred of actual evidence. I find it hard to believe something like this is going on and our intelligence services haven’t picked up on any of it.
  - tim333 2y ago
    I was going to say Kompromat seems likely.
    - red-iron-pine 2y ago
      possible, but the dude is a terrible business man and has been bailed out constantly by the Russian Mafia. no need to blackmail him when he's terrible with money -- just turn off the tap or offer more. add in a huge quantity of narcissism + a pathological need to bang Eastern European women (aka the classic Soviet/Russian honeypot), and you've got him locked down easily. his ego, plus his complete inability to get accepted by NYC high society make him easy to manipulate after you've satisfied his immediate needs for debt-payment money and Slovenian pin-up models. top-shelf asset handling by Russian intelligence, btw. Farage and Trump -- those asset account managers are damn good. deep web rumors have suggested Melania herself was his handler, and if so she's probably the most accomplished case officer in history.
      - tim333 2y ago
        That's an interesting theory re Melania - that hadn't occurred to me. Though she doesn't really come across that way. I think Katya Banks, wife of Brexit's main funder, is though: >Cadwalladr said the file claimed Katya Banks had entered Britain on a passport sequentially numbered to the passport of Katia Zatuliveter, a woman MI5 had claimed was a Russian spy and who had had an affair with the Portsmouth MP, Mike Hancock. Katya Banks was also alleged to have had a relationship with Hancock. Googling suggest the Russians have been on to Trump since 1977 while he only met Melania in 1998. (1977 source https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia-asset-claims-former-kgb-spy-new-book https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia...)
- inverted_flag 2y ago
  I mean, the connections between Trump/the far right and Russia have been known for almost a decade now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mueller_report https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mueller_report https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associates_and_Russian_officials https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associat... https://apnews.com/article/russian-interference-presidential-election-influencers-trump-999435273dd39edf7468c6aa34fad5dd https://apnews.com/article/russian-interference-presidential...
- jltsiren 2y ago
  There is nothing unbelievable about this. Everyone knew that this was one likely outcome (among a few), and it was discussed widely long before US elections. It's one thing to understand something on an intellectual level and another to accept it emotionally. For someone in the upper class or the upper middle class, it's too comfortable to assume that things will go on as usual and bad things only happen in the news and not in the real world. Trump and Putin are ideologically aligned, like many other strongman leaders in the world. But because their shared ideology is a variant of nationalism, it can just as easily make them allies as enemies. Everything depends on the situation, as there are no fundamental reasons to favor one over another.
  - mongol 2y ago
    Depends on perspective. It was not unbelievable yesterday what happened today. But it was completely unbelievable before Trump entered the political stage.
- hayst4ck 2y ago
  During the American revolutionary war a rebel government was aided by European powers to fight against their rival/enemy, the British. Likewise we see that another rebel government in the US was aided by Russia in order to weaken Europe, Ukraine, and its allies. NATO has more or less been disbanded without armed confrontation allowing for easier Russian expansionism and a return to "spheres of influence" diplomacy. Even expansion into Europe probably won't be very armed. It will largely be done by offering aid to a country's elites and oligarch aspirants, getting them to turn against their citizens for 30 silver. I don't really think it's much more complicated than that. We are experiencing a decapitation strike as a military action against America for our hand in helping Ukraine defend itself: https://snyder.substack.com/p/decapitation-strike https://snyder.substack.com/p/decapitation-strike Our military is failing to protect us from enemies foreign and domestic. https://www.army.mil/values/oath.html https://www.army.mil/values/oath.html
  - IAmGraydon 2y ago
    I sometimes have to question the motivations of the people who write these articles. It's like they're saying "THE ENTIRE FREE WORLD IS AT RISK AND WE HAVE TO ACT NOW, so pay me to see how! Here's the article in full. https://archive.is/1xkxK https://archive.is/1xkxK
    - consumer451 2y ago
      I understand your point, but Timothy Snyder is not some grifter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Snyder https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Snyder
      - IAmGraydon 2y ago
        I understand. And I know people need to make a living, but for god’s sake if there was ever a time to put aside profits and share this information freely, it’s now.
    - hayst4ck 2y ago
      Apologies for the paywalled link, when I first read the article it was not paywalled. I am not particularly sure why it is now. I agree it is unfortunate and would like an explanation. Many thanks for the archive link. He has very large amounts of content on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biZVrh821RA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biZVrh821RA I think that series touches on his book "The road to Unfreedom," and he also did a full reading/discussion of his book "On Tyranny." He also posted a lecture series on the history of Ukraine. I think he did a video called "How could the holocaust have happen," which was unfortunately informative.
Trasmatta 2y ago
On days like this, don't forget all the US tech CEOs that immediately bent the knee to Trump. It was obvious from the start that he would sell out the Ukrainian people to Russia. They were more than happy to support that with glowing praise, and even pay the $1 million protection fee. He'll be happy to sell out the American people to Russia as well.
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
Unsubscribed from openai and subscribed to claude today. Little I can do.
- mongol 2y ago
  Is this something you did to not support the undercurrents of these news? I have been thinking the same, but why is Claude better?
  - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
    Don't want to pay any money to Vereinigtes Reich von Amerika.
    - mongol 2y ago
      Ok but is not Anthropic also American?
      - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
        Shit
tim333 2y ago
I find Trump's demand for reparations from Ukraine for having been invaded and the US having helped a bit particularly icky. I'm not sure the US has done anything like that in its entire history?
- severino 2y ago
  Yes, I guess this is the first time. Until now, the US would usually invade a country themselves to take their natural resources. This time they're just asking politely. Seems to me to be an improvement.
mongol 2y ago
This marks the day when the US went rogue. Plain and clear.

51 points by consumer451 2y ago

https://archive.md/aYK8s https://archive.md/aYK8s

This is a truly unbelievable turn of events, as seen from Europe. Negotiating something between Russia and Ukraine is arguably reasonable. However, what the US is now proposing happens to exactly match the Kremlin's wish list. That is not negotiation by any known definition of the term. I would argue that the US aligning with Putin is much more impactful on the future of geopolitics than even Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If anyone could make this make sense, while keeping in the spirit of this website, I would appreciate it.

jarsin 2y ago
All at a time when Big Tech is outsourcing US dev jobs to eastern Europe in droves.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  Poland is not Russia, nor is Bulgaria, Croatia, et al a spurious correlation
talldayo 2y ago
It doesn't make sense, and Ukraine has already stated that they don't agree to any ceasefire they don't personally negotiate. Just yesterday American leadership tried tricking them into signing a deal after levying a (quickly retracted) threat: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-russia-set-begin-high-stakes-talks-ukraines/story?id=118900923 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-russia-set-begin-high-sta... Only Ukraine can sue for peace, and they've stated quite openly that they will not give Russia the land they occupy. Trump's admin can negotiate whatever they want behind closed doors, but Ukrainian leadership has no obligation to listen. Trump doesn't have the leverage he would like with NATO starting to well up the bases of European support.
- consumer451 2y ago
  I agree with you, and European nations are now proposing a historic $700B deal to support Ukraine. As the USA chooses to end the American Century, my only hope is that the next century will be led not by China, but by Europe. What I don't understand is why people like Musk and Sachs, two very influential Trump admin members, have been perfectly aligned with Putin. For years, they have repeated Kremlin talking points word for word. It's uncanny. Trump himself was accused of being a Moscow stooge for years, and yet came out very strong against Russian aggression during the first weeks of his administration. Suddenly, it's all exactly what Putin wants. What happened? Was it all theater?
  - talldayo 2y ago
    [dead]
- defrost 2y ago
  As much as I agree with you, there are a good number that think Ukraine has no say in any of this, eg. from: Ukraine not invited to US-Russia peace talks https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43072691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43072691 with an apparent implicit starting point that Ukraine has already lost the war and it's now A-Okay for Russia and the US to divide up the spoils ... NB: downvoters .. shooting the messenger? It's not my belief that Ukraine has no agency here, just an attitude common to backseat wargamers.
  - consumer451 2y ago
    What you linked is such "half-court tennis" thinking about modern geopolitics, that it is staggering. It entirely ignores not only the wishes of the country in question, but the entire continent and economic bloc between the USA and Russia. This is some kind of weird magical thinking where somehow the USA remains influential, as it withdraws from positions of global influence. What happens if the EU and Ukraine don't agree with the US position on Russia? Will the USA threaten and sanction the EU? What other option is the USA leaving itself?
nickpeterson 2y ago
When they promised to lower the price of everything I guess they also meant murder.
chairmansteve 2y ago
Here's a theory. https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-...
- IAmGraydon 2y ago
  It’s useless to post paywalled articles. https://archive.is/bEoCT https://archive.is/bEoCT Also, it’s an interesting theory and would make a lot of sense, but it’s presented with literally not one shred of actual evidence. I find it hard to believe something like this is going on and our intelligence services haven’t picked up on any of it.
- tim333 2y ago
  I was going to say Kompromat seems likely.
  - red-iron-pine 2y ago
    possible, but the dude is a terrible business man and has been bailed out constantly by the Russian Mafia. no need to blackmail him when he's terrible with money -- just turn off the tap or offer more. add in a huge quantity of narcissism + a pathological need to bang Eastern European women (aka the classic Soviet/Russian honeypot), and you've got him locked down easily. his ego, plus his complete inability to get accepted by NYC high society make him easy to manipulate after you've satisfied his immediate needs for debt-payment money and Slovenian pin-up models. top-shelf asset handling by Russian intelligence, btw. Farage and Trump -- those asset account managers are damn good. deep web rumors have suggested Melania herself was his handler, and if so she's probably the most accomplished case officer in history.
    - tim333 2y ago
      That's an interesting theory re Melania - that hadn't occurred to me. Though she doesn't really come across that way. I think Katya Banks, wife of Brexit's main funder, is though: >Cadwalladr said the file claimed Katya Banks had entered Britain on a passport sequentially numbered to the passport of Katia Zatuliveter, a woman MI5 had claimed was a Russian spy and who had had an affair with the Portsmouth MP, Mike Hancock. Katya Banks was also alleged to have had a relationship with Hancock. Googling suggest the Russians have been on to Trump since 1977 while he only met Melania in 1998. (1977 source https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia-asset-claims-former-kgb-spy-new-book https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia...)
inverted_flag 2y ago
I mean, the connections between Trump/the far right and Russia have been known for almost a decade now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mueller_report https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mueller_report https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associates_and_Russian_officials https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associat... https://apnews.com/article/russian-interference-presidential-election-influencers-trump-999435273dd39edf7468c6aa34fad5dd https://apnews.com/article/russian-interference-presidential...
jltsiren 2y ago
There is nothing unbelievable about this. Everyone knew that this was one likely outcome (among a few), and it was discussed widely long before US elections. It's one thing to understand something on an intellectual level and another to accept it emotionally. For someone in the upper class or the upper middle class, it's too comfortable to assume that things will go on as usual and bad things only happen in the news and not in the real world. Trump and Putin are ideologically aligned, like many other strongman leaders in the world. But because their shared ideology is a variant of nationalism, it can just as easily make them allies as enemies. Everything depends on the situation, as there are no fundamental reasons to favor one over another.
- mongol 2y ago
  Depends on perspective. It was not unbelievable yesterday what happened today. But it was completely unbelievable before Trump entered the political stage.
hayst4ck 2y ago
During the American revolutionary war a rebel government was aided by European powers to fight against their rival/enemy, the British. Likewise we see that another rebel government in the US was aided by Russia in order to weaken Europe, Ukraine, and its allies. NATO has more or less been disbanded without armed confrontation allowing for easier Russian expansionism and a return to "spheres of influence" diplomacy. Even expansion into Europe probably won't be very armed. It will largely be done by offering aid to a country's elites and oligarch aspirants, getting them to turn against their citizens for 30 silver. I don't really think it's much more complicated than that. We are experiencing a decapitation strike as a military action against America for our hand in helping Ukraine defend itself: https://snyder.substack.com/p/decapitation-strike https://snyder.substack.com/p/decapitation-strike Our military is failing to protect us from enemies foreign and domestic. https://www.army.mil/values/oath.html https://www.army.mil/values/oath.html
- IAmGraydon 2y ago
  I sometimes have to question the motivations of the people who write these articles. It's like they're saying "THE ENTIRE FREE WORLD IS AT RISK AND WE HAVE TO ACT NOW, so pay me to see how! Here's the article in full. https://archive.is/1xkxK https://archive.is/1xkxK
  - consumer451 2y ago
    I understand your point, but Timothy Snyder is not some grifter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Snyder https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Snyder
    - IAmGraydon 2y ago
      I understand. And I know people need to make a living, but for god’s sake if there was ever a time to put aside profits and share this information freely, it’s now.
  - hayst4ck 2y ago
    Apologies for the paywalled link, when I first read the article it was not paywalled. I am not particularly sure why it is now. I agree it is unfortunate and would like an explanation. Many thanks for the archive link. He has very large amounts of content on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biZVrh821RA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biZVrh821RA I think that series touches on his book "The road to Unfreedom," and he also did a full reading/discussion of his book "On Tyranny." He also posted a lecture series on the history of Ukraine. I think he did a video called "How could the holocaust have happen," which was unfortunately informative.

Trasmatta 2y ago

On days like this, don't forget all the US tech CEOs that immediately bent the knee to Trump. It was obvious from the start that he would sell out the Ukrainian people to Russia. They were more than happy to support that with glowing praise, and even pay the $1 million protection fee. He'll be happy to sell out the American people to Russia as well.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago

Unsubscribed from openai and subscribed to claude today. Little I can do.

mongol 2y ago
Is this something you did to not support the undercurrents of these news? I have been thinking the same, but why is Claude better?
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
  Don't want to pay any money to Vereinigtes Reich von Amerika.
  - mongol 2y ago
    Ok but is not Anthropic also American?
    - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
      Shit

tim333 2y ago

I find Trump's demand for reparations from Ukraine for having been invaded and the US having helped a bit particularly icky. I'm not sure the US has done anything like that in its entire history?

severino 2y ago
Yes, I guess this is the first time. Until now, the US would usually invade a country themselves to take their natural resources. This time they're just asking politely. Seems to me to be an improvement.

mongol 2y ago

This marks the day when the US went rogue. Plain and clear.