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> It seems to me that now, instead of that tug-of-war discussion happening between the two parties, I'm REALLY looking forward to 2028, because I think that po
by swalsh 2y ago
> It seems to me that now, instead of that tug-of-war discussion happening between the two parties,
I'm REALLY looking forward to 2028, because I think that potentially will be the first election where we start to see what modern politics will look like. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple new parties, and multiples of them have a real chance. If it seems one sided right now, it's just because one side found their way to the start line first... but make no mistake, history shows that over time new political factions will form that offer resistance to bad ideas, and clear a path for the good ideas.
Given the rate of change with AI, We're going to have a real idea on what a world being disrupted by AGI (whether that is true AGI, or something close to it) looks like. At the same time Healthcare is only getting worse, and Trump is NOT going to fundumentally address it. China is going to be rising, and they're a real geopolitical threat. The war in Ukraine has completely changed what warfare looks like, and we're going to have to completely restructure our military (just like we have to restructure our healthcare). I also wouldn't be surprised if Trump's war with the cartel turns out to be far harder than expected because cheap autonomous drones allow a small military to compete against a large traditional military.
All of our prior assumptions on retirement are different too, retired boomers are not the same as the pensioneers from their day. They're not impoverished, instead they're flush with cash. I'm not sure in a world with an aging workforce you're going to be anti-immigrant... and all these benefits we give to retirees may not make sense in a world where retirees are wealthier than the regular workforce supporting them.
The general theme for the next decade is going to be throw out all the old books, 80% of our prior assumptions no longer apply.