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One thought I’ve had many times (open to feedback on this philosophy) Estimates for completion dates in software should be given as a probability distribution
by holtkam2 2y ago
One thought I’ve had many times (open to feedback on this philosophy)
Estimates for completion dates in software should be given as a probability distribution instead of a date.
Instead of: I estimate the release will be shipped by 03/01/2025
I tell my manager: I estimate the release will be shipped by 03/01/2025 +- 10 days at one standard distribution confidence level. Plan accordingly based upon your risk tolerance for missing the deadline.
- nrclark 2y agoI've had mixed results with this approach. What happens when I try it is: 1. I communicate DATE and CONFIDENCE_INTERVAL 2. My manager hears DATE and CONFIDENCE_INTERVAL. 3. My manager tells project-manager "probably somewhere around DATE" 4. Project-manager hears "DATE" 5. DATE becomes what people thought I said.