My takeaway is not that estimating is hard, it's that intelligent people can easily over-value past performance and under-value domain specific knowledge for a

My takeaway is not that estimating is hard, it's that intelligent people can easily over-value past performance and under-value domain specific knowledge for a given task. Accurate estimating gets done everyday outside of software, and there exist experienced estimators and tested contractural frameworks used to mitigate unknowns, while optimizing for whichever combination of time, cost, and quality is agreed upon by all parties.