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I said "At that point, most of the used cars available for sale will be ICE's." So it should be obvious that I'm talking about the "X% of new vehicles sold wil
by bryanlarsen 2y ago
I said "At that point, most of the used cars available for sale will be ICE's."
So it should be obvious that I'm talking about the "X% of new vehicles sold will be EV" point.
- EA-3167 2y agoIt's a less unlikely result, but you're still talking about going from around 7% of the market to 80% in as little as 3 years. That doesn't feel tethered to reality IMO. It seems to be a "line going up must continue along roughly the same slope" situation, which I don't think holds true in most cases.
- bryanlarsen 2y agoNot in the US, no. But worldwide EV market share of annual sales is already over 20%. The rest of the world is much more cost sensitive than the US, so once EV's are cheaper than ICE I expect a rapid transition. It'll follow an S curve, and we haven't hit the second knee of the S curve. I doubt it'll be 3 years, but that seems a reasonable lower bounds to me.