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I agree that it's in the future, but the key is how far in the future? Because if it's 5 years in the future then it's very relevant to people buying cars today

I agree that it's in the future, but the key is how far in the future? Because if it's 5 years in the future then it's very relevant to people buying cars today, but it's 20 years in the future... not so much. And as a purely academic point freed from the constraints of *when*, it's not interesting at all.

bryanlarsen 2y ago
The predictions for hitting the 80% EV mark range from 2028 - 2035.
- EA-3167 2y ago
  Well I think intuitively it should be obvious that we aren't getting from 3.3 million EV's in the US to 228 million EV's in 3 years, so that really makes me question where you're coming from. Doubly so when ICE vehicles are still being sold at quite a pace, with 20 million more expected by 2030. Given all of that you'd need to see sales of EV's leap into the range of 23 million per year, every year from now until 2035 to reach 80% of what's on the road. If you just mean "x% of vehicles sold will be EV" then... it's a bit less absurd, but also much less meaningful in terms of the original discussion.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    I said "At that point, most of the used cars available for sale will be ICE's." So it should be obvious that I'm talking about the "X% of new vehicles sold will be EV" point.
    - EA-3167 2y ago
      It's a less unlikely result, but you're still talking about going from around 7% of the market to 80% in as little as 3 years. That doesn't feel tethered to reality IMO. It seems to be a "line going up must continue along roughly the same slope" situation, which I don't think holds true in most cases.
      - bryanlarsen 2y ago
        Not in the US, no. But worldwide EV market share of annual sales is already over 20%. The rest of the world is much more cost sensitive than the US, so once EV's are cheaper than ICE I expect a rapid transition. It'll follow an S curve, and we haven't hit the second knee of the S curve. I doubt it'll be 3 years, but that seems a reasonable lower bounds to me.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

The predictions for hitting the 80% EV mark range from 2028 - 2035.

EA-3167 2y ago
Well I think intuitively it should be obvious that we aren't getting from 3.3 million EV's in the US to 228 million EV's in 3 years, so that really makes me question where you're coming from. Doubly so when ICE vehicles are still being sold at quite a pace, with 20 million more expected by 2030. Given all of that you'd need to see sales of EV's leap into the range of 23 million per year, every year from now until 2035 to reach 80% of what's on the road. If you just mean "x% of vehicles sold will be EV" then... it's a bit less absurd, but also much less meaningful in terms of the original discussion.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  I said "At that point, most of the used cars available for sale will be ICE's." So it should be obvious that I'm talking about the "X% of new vehicles sold will be EV" point.
  - EA-3167 2y ago
    It's a less unlikely result, but you're still talking about going from around 7% of the market to 80% in as little as 3 years. That doesn't feel tethered to reality IMO. It seems to be a "line going up must continue along roughly the same slope" situation, which I don't think holds true in most cases.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      Not in the US, no. But worldwide EV market share of annual sales is already over 20%. The rest of the world is much more cost sensitive than the US, so once EV's are cheaper than ICE I expect a rapid transition. It'll follow an S curve, and we haven't hit the second knee of the S curve. I doubt it'll be 3 years, but that seems a reasonable lower bounds to me.