Would IMO need significantly more tariffs to effect significant shifts (and, even more importantly, some certainty that those tariffs are going to stick for the

Would IMO need significantly more tariffs to effect significant shifts (and, even more importantly, some certainty that those tariffs are going to stick for the next decades, which is hard to provide). Chinese mean manufacturing wage is ~$25k/year (purchasing parity adjusted, $15k unadjusted, for an average 49h/week of work). If you want domestic products to be competitive, you basically need the difference paid by consumers/taxpayers in tariffs or subsidies. I don't think current tariff level is going to move lots of manufacturing jobs into the US (and I would personally argue that most Americans don't even want those jobs as they are currently). Instead, I'd expect a slow shift towards countries with favorable local wage/tariff combination (India, Vietnam, etc.).