4 ms·

Probably bad news for the vendors, though. I genuinely struggle to see how most of these LLM companies are going to monetize and profit off their efforts with L

Probably bad news for the vendors, though. I genuinely struggle to see how most of these LLM companies are going to monetize and profit off their efforts with LLMs already in commodity territory. Government contracts can only flow for so long?

k__ 2y ago
Yes, I couldn't have imagined that in the end, the AI wrappers are where the money is.
- tpm 2y ago
  What if the money isn't there either? What if this AI thing lowers costs of everything it touches without generating meaningful financial returns itself?
  - ineedasername 2y ago
    Lowering costs is pretty valuable. People will pay for that. Everyone will pay for that. It may be that margins go razor thin but outside of running your own instance locally (which is increasingly viable for mid quality & requirements on modest HW) people will pay. I’m not surrounded by early adopter types at all abd there’s still a small but growing chunk paying $20/mo right now.
    - tpm 2y ago
      > It may be that margins go razor thin That's what I mean. One example are PV panels, they are making energy production cheaper, so their producers should be good investment right? No they go bust all the time because prices are falling and margins are thin even if the volume grows. Of course the economies of scale here are different but still.
cuuupid 2y ago
Government contracts are so big a few of them can sustain a F500 company; for AI, many CDAO contracts are 50-500MM$. If they do a big SI project with it, could be 1-2B$. Money is also guaranteed over 5 years and if the program doesn't get shuttered, the contract will renew at that point (or go to recompete). That being said it's my understanding that these companies don't have many huge contracts at all -- you can audit this in like 10 minutes on FPDS. Companies need a LOT of capital, time, and expertise to break into the industry and just compliance audit timelines are 1-4 years right now, so this could definitely change in the next couple years.
antupis 2y ago
Like always through ads.
KingMob 2y ago
> Government contracts can only flow for so long? I wouldn't bet on that, given the undemocratic influence Grok's owner has in government.
throw16180339 2y ago
My guess is that Elon will soon announce that Doge is replacing the fired government workers with Grok AI.

k__ 2y ago

Yes, I couldn't have imagined that in the end, the AI wrappers are where the money is.

tpm 2y ago
What if the money isn't there either? What if this AI thing lowers costs of everything it touches without generating meaningful financial returns itself?
- ineedasername 2y ago
  Lowering costs is pretty valuable. People will pay for that. Everyone will pay for that. It may be that margins go razor thin but outside of running your own instance locally (which is increasingly viable for mid quality & requirements on modest HW) people will pay. I’m not surrounded by early adopter types at all abd there’s still a small but growing chunk paying $20/mo right now.
  - tpm 2y ago
    > It may be that margins go razor thin That's what I mean. One example are PV panels, they are making energy production cheaper, so their producers should be good investment right? No they go bust all the time because prices are falling and margins are thin even if the volume grows. Of course the economies of scale here are different but still.

cuuupid 2y ago

Government contracts are so big a few of them can sustain a F500 company; for AI, many CDAO contracts are 50-500MM$. If they do a big SI project with it, could be 1-2B$. Money is also guaranteed over 5 years and if the program doesn't get shuttered, the contract will renew at that point (or go to recompete). That being said it's my understanding that these companies don't have many huge contracts at all -- you can audit this in like 10 minutes on FPDS. Companies need a LOT of capital, time, and expertise to break into the industry and just compliance audit timelines are 1-4 years right now, so this could definitely change in the next couple years.

antupis 2y ago

Like always through ads.

KingMob 2y ago

> Government contracts can only flow for so long? I wouldn't bet on that, given the undemocratic influence Grok's owner has in government.

throw16180339 2y ago

My guess is that Elon will soon announce that Doge is replacing the fired government workers with Grok AI.