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Karpathy believes that this is at o1-pro level[1]. This again proves that OpenAI simply has no tech moat whatsoever. Elon's $97 billion offer for OpenAI last w

by tw1984 2y ago

Karpathy believes that this is at o1-pro level[1]. This again proves that OpenAI simply has no tech moat whatsoever. Elon's $97 billion offer for OpenAI last week was reasonable given that xAI already have something just a few months behind - it would probably be faster for xAI to catch up with o3 than going through all those paperworks and lawyer talks required for such an acquisition. Elon also has some huge up-hand here - Elon and his mum are extremely popular in China, it would be easier for him to acquire Chinese AI engineers. He can offer xAI/XSpace/Neurallink shares to those best AI engineers who'd prefer some kind of almost guaranteed 8 figure return in long run. Good luck to OpenAI investors who still believe that OpenAI worth anything more than $100 billion. [1] https://x.com/karpathy/status/1891720635363254772 https://x.com/karpathy/status/1891720635363254772

UltraSane 2y ago
Will the vast sums of money being spent on Grok ever actually have a positive ROI?
SilverBirch 2y ago
Firstly, the 97Bn was for the non-profit, not for the company. The company is being valued in funding rounds closer to 300Bn. I think it may be true that OpenAI has no moat, but if it has no moat then all of these AI companies are overvalued (including xAI) and Elon should just stop bothering to throw his money at it. I would say Elon probably actually doesn't have much of an advantage here. In both SpaceX and Tesla he was able to do something no competitor could do - raise cash. Car companies simply couldn't invest in tech research to build self-driving to compete with Tesla. SpaceX consumed enormous amounts of cash before anyone saw value. That is a unique skill that Elon had over the 2010s. That is not an advantage in a race against Microsoft, Google, Meta etc. he's competing against all the biggest companies in the world in this race. He's not going to be able to outspend them if the economics look at all sensible.
- misiti3780 2y ago
  I know HN hates to admit it, but FSD 13 is fucking incredible and I use it for 90% of my drives.
- tw1984 2y ago
  > SpaceX consumed enormous amounts of cash No, spacex projects are extremely $ efficient. The total project cost of starship is like 20% of the SLS. > he's competing against all the biggest companies in the world in this race. No, this is a not a pissing contest on who has the most $. If it is about who can come up with most $, then the entire race is already over as the CCP has access to trillions of $ CASH.

by tw1984 2y ago

UltraSane 2y ago

Will the vast sums of money being spent on Grok ever actually have a positive ROI?

SilverBirch 2y ago

Firstly, the 97Bn was for the non-profit, not for the company. The company is being valued in funding rounds closer to 300Bn. I think it may be true that OpenAI has no moat, but if it has no moat then all of these AI companies are overvalued (including xAI) and Elon should just stop bothering to throw his money at it. I would say Elon probably actually doesn't have much of an advantage here. In both SpaceX and Tesla he was able to do something no competitor could do - raise cash. Car companies simply couldn't invest in tech research to build self-driving to compete with Tesla. SpaceX consumed enormous amounts of cash before anyone saw value. That is a unique skill that Elon had over the 2010s. That is not an advantage in a race against Microsoft, Google, Meta etc. he's competing against all the biggest companies in the world in this race. He's not going to be able to outspend them if the economics look at all sensible.

misiti3780 2y ago
I know HN hates to admit it, but FSD 13 is fucking incredible and I use it for 90% of my drives.
tw1984 2y ago
> SpaceX consumed enormous amounts of cash No, spacex projects are extremely $ efficient. The total project cost of starship is like 20% of the SLS. > he's competing against all the biggest companies in the world in this race. No, this is a not a pissing contest on who has the most $. If it is about who can come up with most $, then the entire race is already over as the CCP has access to trillions of $ CASH.