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there was a related comment by the president about the legitimacy of some of the bonds the treasury was paying interest on[1], which might add to this uncertain
by motohagiography 2y ago
there was a related comment by the president about the legitimacy of some of the bonds the treasury was paying interest on[1], which might add to this uncertainty.
it could be related to his common tactic of creating strategic uncertainty, but this one was oddly specific. most heads of state refrain from commenting on default risk as the 'bond vigilantes' who lend their treasury money by buying their bonds are essential to their ability to fund government and govern.
the risk of course is that there are trillions in derivatives stacked on top of any so-called "illigitimate" debt, which creates a kind of mexican stand-off where defaulting on those bonds causes systemic liquidity problems elsewhere in the system that will require policy intervention to recover from it, hence it is never a priority to touch it. That's a sci-fi interpretation, and any actual practitioner in finance (I am not one) might call that irresponsible speculation so ymmv.
but still, maybe it's a political play. a certain set of asset managers is orchestrating political problems around the world and the only way to dislodge them is to do something unthinkable. Even if he doesn't, how big are you willing to bet he won't? That hesitation is the essence of this president's strategy. Very interesting times.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-traders-waver-trump-questions-us-government-debt-figures-2025-02-10/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-traders-wav...