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Here’s a tweet from Elon with a table of ages of all people marked not deceased who are collecting social security (hint: there is a smooth trend of people of

Here’s a tweet from Elon with a table of ages of all people marked not deceased who are collecting social security (hint: there is a smooth trend of people of all ages up to 199, so the 1875 thing was pure misdirection) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891350795452654076?s=46&t=NN3Ma3wsHBF26PLjy342bw https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891350795452654076?s=46&t=NN3...

qingcharles 2y ago
This comment definitely needs to be bumped up. It adds extra data to the mystery. Here's the raw data: Age Range,Count 0-9,38825456 10-19,44326480 20-29,47995478 30-39,52106915 40-49,47626581 50-59,45740805 60-69,46381281 70-79,33404412 80-89,15165127 90-99,6054154 100-109,4734407 110-119,3627007 120-129,3472849 130-139,3936311 140-149,3542044 150-159,1345083 160-169,121807 170-179,6087 180-189,695 190-199,448 200-209,879 210-219,866 220-229,1039 240-249,1 360-369,1 Bar plot of data: https://imgur.com/a/34Y5BSv https://imgur.com/a/34Y5BSv
- bloomingkales 2y ago
  If you assume all the non-deceased (as marked in the DB) are still getting a SS check, then simply tallying up 65+ amounts to a 8 trillion dollar social security payout annually. We are definitely not paying that. My guess is the deceased flag is different from the “eligible for payout” flag, or that flag is determined on another join. They spoke too quickly, which is a common human error. Someone else smarter run some experiments.
  - ipv6ipv4 2y ago
    This is the smoking gun that Musk has no understanding of what he's looking at. A competent engineer would look at these numbers, recognize that they don't match payments, and shut up until they figure out the bigger picture that can explain everything they see. Instead, he raced to tweet it. This is just dumb.
    - qingcharles 2y ago
      Agree. Some professional auditors on Reddit were saying how often they go into a business and find a bunch of stuff that immediately looks like fraud, then they go interview knowledgeable employees and find a ton of weird accounting edge cases which explains all the out-of-bounds stuff. But.. it sounds much better to the population if you scream that you found $8Tn a year in fraud.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - TrackerFF 2y ago
      Oh, do not for one second think that this behavior isn't intentional. Elon knows it is BS. But that's not the point, the point is to create outrage, and legitimize it all to the MAGA crowd. It is all intentional misleading.
      - hsuduebc2 2y ago
        I love how these people are absolutely prone to even basic "common sense". You need to blame someone for your misery. One of the oldest tricks. We are still just unga bunga tribal apes some of us smarter that the other but it's still not enough.
        bloomingkales 2y ago
        You need to look at how the republicans on X are discussing this: https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1886647920566636637 https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1886647920566636637 They are basically inundating that base with tech content that only lifelong developers would be able to parse. It’s a serious propaganda effort. I’m sad right now dude.
        hsuduebc2 2y ago
        What is the point of this? To hide information for audience which in majority does not understand what these data and graphs means but they are going to assume it's meaning is what they wish to see there? So they can basically prove their points with data hidden by literal obfuscation lol. I'm not so much sad as amazed slash disgusted. This is antivax thinking pattern.
  - tayo42 2y ago
    Quick Google search says 1.6 trillion will be paid this year.
cafard 2y ago
If I understand the post, these are persons who are marked not deceased--it is not stated that they are receiving money, though it may be implied. For example, there are some persons under ten years of age who are receiving Social Security benefits, as having lost one or two parents (survivor benefits). The number certainly does not amount to 39 million.
jotux 2y ago
From this: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891350795452654076 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891350795452654076 The sum of groups age 60-89: 94,950,820 The sum of all groups age 60-369: 121,794,498 From this: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html Number of beneficiaries receiving benefits on Dec 31, 2024: 68,455,973
Data-Miner 2y ago
In the early 1980s my job at Army Materiel Command (DARCOM in those days) was to report energy consumption trends for all Depots, Arsenals, RDT&E, etc. in our Defense Energy Information System (DEIS) database. I was a 30-yr old newbie to DoD, but the numbers were not adding up. Nobody questioned what was being reported, because frankly, they only looked at trends not what the outrageously huge energy consumption actually was. Some installations were reporting almost no energy usage and others reporting waay too much. It took me a while to identify the problem, and much much longer to correct it. In a nutshell, only some installations were reporting correctly: Everything was supposed to be converted to MBTUs. But I found some reporting in 1,000s; others reporting in gallons of fuel instead of converting to MBTUs; others using wrong conversion factors. Elon's team found data that doesn't make sense. There's nothing wrong with publicizing the absurdity of what he found. Explanations will come, but the fact remains - somebody has been asleep at the wheel, and nothing good comes from bad data. Are we overpaying? Maybe so. Is it fraud? Maybe. Is it innocent error. Could be. Could it be that fraudulent SSNs are getting used without detection?? A real possibility. Don't gripe about Elon. He's doing a job that nobody before him has done. It's about time. Thank you Pres Trump!! Thanks Elon!!
- glompers 2y ago
  The OIG most recently did the job in 2023, as multiple HN members have posted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43083362 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43083362

qingcharles 2y ago

This comment definitely needs to be bumped up. It adds extra data to the mystery. Here's the raw data: Age Range,Count 0-9,38825456 10-19,44326480 20-29,47995478 30-39,52106915 40-49,47626581 50-59,45740805 60-69,46381281 70-79,33404412 80-89,15165127 90-99,6054154 100-109,4734407 110-119,3627007 120-129,3472849 130-139,3936311 140-149,3542044 150-159,1345083 160-169,121807 170-179,6087 180-189,695 190-199,448 200-209,879 210-219,866 220-229,1039 240-249,1 360-369,1 Bar plot of data: https://imgur.com/a/34Y5BSv https://imgur.com/a/34Y5BSv

bloomingkales 2y ago
If you assume all the non-deceased (as marked in the DB) are still getting a SS check, then simply tallying up 65+ amounts to a 8 trillion dollar social security payout annually. We are definitely not paying that. My guess is the deceased flag is different from the “eligible for payout” flag, or that flag is determined on another join. They spoke too quickly, which is a common human error. Someone else smarter run some experiments.
- ipv6ipv4 2y ago
  This is the smoking gun that Musk has no understanding of what he's looking at. A competent engineer would look at these numbers, recognize that they don't match payments, and shut up until they figure out the bigger picture that can explain everything they see. Instead, he raced to tweet it. This is just dumb.
  - qingcharles 2y ago
    Agree. Some professional auditors on Reddit were saying how often they go into a business and find a bunch of stuff that immediately looks like fraud, then they go interview knowledgeable employees and find a ton of weird accounting edge cases which explains all the out-of-bounds stuff. But.. it sounds much better to the population if you scream that you found $8Tn a year in fraud.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - TrackerFF 2y ago
    Oh, do not for one second think that this behavior isn't intentional. Elon knows it is BS. But that's not the point, the point is to create outrage, and legitimize it all to the MAGA crowd. It is all intentional misleading.
    - hsuduebc2 2y ago
      I love how these people are absolutely prone to even basic "common sense". You need to blame someone for your misery. One of the oldest tricks. We are still just unga bunga tribal apes some of us smarter that the other but it's still not enough.
      - bloomingkales 2y ago
        You need to look at how the republicans on X are discussing this: https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1886647920566636637 https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1886647920566636637 They are basically inundating that base with tech content that only lifelong developers would be able to parse. It’s a serious propaganda effort. I’m sad right now dude.
        hsuduebc2 2y ago
        What is the point of this? To hide information for audience which in majority does not understand what these data and graphs means but they are going to assume it's meaning is what they wish to see there? So they can basically prove their points with data hidden by literal obfuscation lol. I'm not so much sad as amazed slash disgusted. This is antivax thinking pattern.
- tayo42 2y ago
  Quick Google search says 1.6 trillion will be paid this year.

cafard 2y ago

If I understand the post, these are persons who are marked not deceased--it is not stated that they are receiving money, though it may be implied. For example, there are some persons under ten years of age who are receiving Social Security benefits, as having lost one or two parents (survivor benefits). The number certainly does not amount to 39 million.

jotux 2y ago

From this: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891350795452654076 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1891350795452654076 The sum of groups age 60-89: 94,950,820 The sum of all groups age 60-369: 121,794,498 From this: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html Number of beneficiaries receiving benefits on Dec 31, 2024: 68,455,973

Data-Miner 2y ago

In the early 1980s my job at Army Materiel Command (DARCOM in those days) was to report energy consumption trends for all Depots, Arsenals, RDT&E, etc. in our Defense Energy Information System (DEIS) database. I was a 30-yr old newbie to DoD, but the numbers were not adding up. Nobody questioned what was being reported, because frankly, they only looked at trends not what the outrageously huge energy consumption actually was. Some installations were reporting almost no energy usage and others reporting waay too much. It took me a while to identify the problem, and much much longer to correct it. In a nutshell, only some installations were reporting correctly: Everything was supposed to be converted to MBTUs. But I found some reporting in 1,000s; others reporting in gallons of fuel instead of converting to MBTUs; others using wrong conversion factors. Elon's team found data that doesn't make sense. There's nothing wrong with publicizing the absurdity of what he found. Explanations will come, but the fact remains - somebody has been asleep at the wheel, and nothing good comes from bad data. Are we overpaying? Maybe so. Is it fraud? Maybe. Is it innocent error. Could be. Could it be that fraudulent SSNs are getting used without detection?? A real possibility. Don't gripe about Elon. He's doing a job that nobody before him has done. It's about time. Thank you Pres Trump!! Thanks Elon!!

glompers 2y ago
The OIG most recently did the job in 2023, as multiple HN members have posted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43083362 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43083362