This spiral is already happening, most of the players who do not have valuable upstream assets (oilfields) started diversifying their portfolio with biofuels, r

This spiral is already happening, most of the players who do not have valuable upstream assets (oilfields) started diversifying their portfolio with biofuels, renewables, electric charging infrastructure etc (see Shell, BP). Other luckier folks have a ton of cash and a ton of valuable assets in their upstream portfolio. These guys only need limited financing, and they have decided to position themselves as the companies who will extract and sell the last barrell of oil (see ExxonMobil, Chevron etc). Your intuition is right, but there will be no disruption. The consolidation will ensure that the remainder players have the capacity to keep the music on (of course at a higher product price).