I wasn't planning on buying long-term bonds regardless; historically I have bought short-term treasury bills, usually 4 to 8 weeks, depending on the coupon rate

I wasn't planning on buying long-term bonds regardless; historically I have bought short-term treasury bills, usually 4 to 8 weeks, depending on the coupon rate, so I'm not too worried about the value on the secondary market. I'm much more concerned with the fed defaulting on paying me back. I more or less came to the same conclusion that you listed; I don't really want to create a big taxable event, so I think right now I'm going to keep the stock I have, and in the shorter term keep future income in a savings account for awhile and suss out if there's going to be a crash or not. Obviously you can't really "time" the market but it's a pretty low-risk experiment on my end.