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I want to stress this is a bipartisan position in the US - there seems to be consensus that the overall system is in a state of crisis. And from a financial per

by roenxi 2y ago

I want to stress this is a bipartisan position in the US - there seems to be consensus that the overall system is in a state of crisis. And from a financial perspective they can't afford the Not-An-Empire spread through Europe and Asia. It is interesting to take a step back and ask how it can end without a USSR style dissolution. If the left wing are genuine in their meme that the right wing supports the 2nd coming of Hitler it is hard to see how the country will hold together. Some sort of painful schism seems likely. Someone is going to have to admit to being wrong, and there isn't a clear path to that. Although democracies do have a tendency to be much more socially robust than they have any right to be; even when the situation comes to literal blows.

JasserInicide 2y ago
I don't see any kind of schism/balkanization in our future. The federal government has its tentacles in all states and the states in turn rely heavily on it for big parts of their budgets. Any one that gets to the point of secession (highly unlikely), the federal government will just invade it on grounds of securing their many assets in the state and then proceed to depose of the seditious element.
motorest 2y ago
> If the left wing are genuine in their meme that the right wing supports the 2nd coming of Hitler it is hard to see how the country will hold together. It's not "the left wing" making that claim, but the whole world. You have the current Trump administration repeatedly threatening to invade and annex multiple neighboring countries. There is no way around it.
- roenxi 2y ago
  > You have the current Trump administration repeatedly threatening to invade and annex multiple neighboring countries What a shocking departure from the US's normal mode of operation. Are they finally going after Brazil? https://vividmaps.com/countries-attacked-by-the-us/ https://vividmaps.com/countries-attacked-by-the-us/
  - motorest 2y ago
    > What a shocking departure from the US's normal mode of operation. Are they finally going after Brazil? They are going after multiple close allies. That's a clear departure from whatever pattern you think you have.
    - roenxi 2y ago
      If they are going after someone, tautologically, that someone is not an ally.
      - lallysingh 2y ago
        If that someone believed themselves an ally before, then the other countries thinking themselves allies now are doubting their positions.
      - motorest 2y ago
        > If they are going after someone, tautologically, that someone is not an ally. No one in their right mind would describe Canada or Denmark as anything other than staunch allies of the US. Trump's stunts forced the whole collective West to do a full 180 in their relations with the US.
        roenxi 2y ago
        If US allies are doing a full 180 because a democratic country elected someone a bit different then their US relations were founded on delusion and it was never going to end well for anyone. It is easy to fall into the trap of negotiating with a faceless bureaucracy but that isn't how democracies actually work. They rethink the basics from time to time. Particularly when they're under stress and the status quo isn't working. We all know that, democracy has been a thing for more than 2,00 years. This isn't a new thing. I suppose ultimately it is a question for the US to debate internally how much to string people along; but my advice would be that it is better to root long term relations on a basis of common interests and basic power dynamics. Trump's approach looks pretty typical for someone with a lot of experience negotiating. You can hoodwink someone in good times or for tactical gain, but for a long term working relationship it in necessary to be straightforward about what the interests and goals are.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > current Trump administration repeatedly threatening to invade and annex multiple neighboring countries This is America arriving late to a party that China rang in with Tibet and Taiwan and Russia with Ukraine.
  - verzali 2y ago
    You should probably read up on the history of the United States' activities in the Americas. Here are a few pointers to get you started: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Pana... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Gren... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Haiti https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Ha... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_the_Hawaiian_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_the_Hawaiian_King... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      Right, you’ve compiled a list of pre-WWI annexations and a random smattering of other military actions. In those cases, America was recapitulating European colonialism and great powers, in turn. If we broaden our scope to that list, we’re still left with lots of stuff that’s unpleasant but far from unprecedented. Fast forward to WWII, when the modern prohibitions on annexation emerged, and you find two countries doing most of the military annexing. (And America doing virtually none of it, the exceptions being around ISIS in the Middle East, where we de facto annexed strongholds as military outposts.)

by roenxi 2y ago

JasserInicide 2y ago

I don't see any kind of schism/balkanization in our future. The federal government has its tentacles in all states and the states in turn rely heavily on it for big parts of their budgets. Any one that gets to the point of secession (highly unlikely), the federal government will just invade it on grounds of securing their many assets in the state and then proceed to depose of the seditious element.

motorest 2y ago

> If the left wing are genuine in their meme that the right wing supports the 2nd coming of Hitler it is hard to see how the country will hold together. It's not "the left wing" making that claim, but the whole world. You have the current Trump administration repeatedly threatening to invade and annex multiple neighboring countries. There is no way around it.

roenxi 2y ago
> You have the current Trump administration repeatedly threatening to invade and annex multiple neighboring countries What a shocking departure from the US's normal mode of operation. Are they finally going after Brazil? https://vividmaps.com/countries-attacked-by-the-us/ https://vividmaps.com/countries-attacked-by-the-us/
- motorest 2y ago
  > What a shocking departure from the US's normal mode of operation. Are they finally going after Brazil? They are going after multiple close allies. That's a clear departure from whatever pattern you think you have.
  - roenxi 2y ago
    If they are going after someone, tautologically, that someone is not an ally.
    - lallysingh 2y ago
      If that someone believed themselves an ally before, then the other countries thinking themselves allies now are doubting their positions.
    - motorest 2y ago
      > If they are going after someone, tautologically, that someone is not an ally. No one in their right mind would describe Canada or Denmark as anything other than staunch allies of the US. Trump's stunts forced the whole collective West to do a full 180 in their relations with the US.
      - roenxi 2y ago
        If US allies are doing a full 180 because a democratic country elected someone a bit different then their US relations were founded on delusion and it was never going to end well for anyone. It is easy to fall into the trap of negotiating with a faceless bureaucracy but that isn't how democracies actually work. They rethink the basics from time to time. Particularly when they're under stress and the status quo isn't working. We all know that, democracy has been a thing for more than 2,00 years. This isn't a new thing. I suppose ultimately it is a question for the US to debate internally how much to string people along; but my advice would be that it is better to root long term relations on a basis of common interests and basic power dynamics. Trump's approach looks pretty typical for someone with a lot of experience negotiating. You can hoodwink someone in good times or for tactical gain, but for a long term working relationship it in necessary to be straightforward about what the interests and goals are.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> current Trump administration repeatedly threatening to invade and annex multiple neighboring countries This is America arriving late to a party that China rang in with Tibet and Taiwan and Russia with Ukraine.
- verzali 2y ago
  You should probably read up on the history of the United States' activities in the Americas. Here are a few pointers to get you started: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Pana... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Gren... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Haiti https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Ha... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_the_Hawaiian_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_the_Hawaiian_King... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    Right, you’ve compiled a list of pre-WWI annexations and a random smattering of other military actions. In those cases, America was recapitulating European colonialism and great powers, in turn. If we broaden our scope to that list, we’re still left with lots of stuff that’s unpleasant but far from unprecedented. Fast forward to WWII, when the modern prohibitions on annexation emerged, and you find two countries doing most of the military annexing. (And America doing virtually none of it, the exceptions being around ISIS in the Middle East, where we de facto annexed strongholds as military outposts.)