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There's certainly a reasonable concern about what happens when China stops accepting IOUs in return for piles of actual stuff. That doesn't influence though the
by hgomersall 2y ago
There's certainly a reasonable concern about what happens when China stops accepting IOUs in return for piles of actual stuff. That doesn't influence though the ability of the US to create what it needs, which is just a function of what resources it can draw on. As Keynes pointed out, anything we can actually do, we can afford.
I'm not actually American, but you get the gist. I've taken the liberty of posting the full passage here since it's so good:
For some weeks at this hour you have enjoyed the day-dreams of planning. But what about the nightmare of finance? I am sure there have been many listeners who have been muttering: “That’s all very well, but how is it to be paid for?”
Let me begin by telling you how I tried to answer an eminent architect who pushed on one side all the grandiose plans to rebuild London with the phrase: “Where’s the money to come from?” “The money?” I said. “But surely, Sir John, you don’t build houses with money? Do you mean that there won’t be enough bricks and mortar and steel and cement?”
“Oh no”, he replied, “of course there will be plenty of all that”.
“Do you mean”, I went on, “that there won’t be enough labour? For what will the builders be doing if they are not building houses?”
“Oh no, that’s all right”, he agreed.
“Then there is only one conclusion. You must be meaning, Sir John, that there won’t be enough architects”. But there I was trespassing on the boundaries of politeness. So I hurried to add: “Well, if there are bricks and mortar and steel and concrete and labour and architects, why not assemble all this good material into houses?”
But he was, I fear, quite unconvinced. “What I want to know”, he repeated, “is where the money is coming from”.
To answer that would have got him and me into deeper water than I cared for, so I replied rather shabbily: “The same place it is coming from now”. He might have countered (but he didn’t): “Of course I know that money is not the slightest use whatever. But, all the same, my dear sir, you will find it a devil of a business not to have any …”
Had I given him a good and convincing answer by saying that we build houses with bricks and mortar, not with money? Or was I only teasing him?
…
For one thing, he was making the very usual confusion between the problem of finance for an individual and the problem for the community as a whole …
The first task is to make sure that there is enough demand to provide employment for everyone. The second task is to prevent a demand in excess of the physical possibilities of supply, which is the proper meaning of inflation. For the physical possibilities of supply are very far from unlimited. Our building programme must be properly proportioned to the resources which are left after we have met our daily needs and have produced enough exports to pay for what we require to import from overseas …
Where we are using up resources, do not let us submit to the vile doctrine of the nineteenth century that every enterprise must justify itself in pounds, shillings and pence of cash income, with no other denominator of values but this. I should like to see that war memorials of this tragic struggle take the shape of an enrichment of the civic life of every great centre of population …
Assuredly we can afford this and much more. Anything we can actually do we can afford. Once done, it is there. Nothing can take it from us.
- mindslight 2y ago> As Keynes pointed out, anything we can actually do, we can afford And what if we're currently affording more than what we can actually do? And what of going forward when a lot of what we can do gets afforded by other countries calling in those IOUs (which won't end up being fully repudiated for a bunch of reasons) ?
- hgomersall 2y agoWhat does it actually mean to "call in an IOU" in this case? It means use the dollars to buy stuff - so export. Well, that's bad if it extracts too much real value from the economy, but then the economy and the government have various tools at their disposal, from outright banning exports, through export tariffs to importing the stuff to export from another country that has a surplus. It's only a claim insofar as the claimee will deliver; there's no credible higher authority to whinge to that the US isn't playing fair, and the US government is only really answerable to its population.
- mindslight 2y agoExcept that before we get to the opposite side of excluded-middle situation you're describing, there's a long transition period where the US government doesn't repudiate the IOUs because it wants to remain "business friendly", is dependent on some imports, wants to trade with some countries, its elites want to be able to go to other countries and spend their wealth, etc. You're basically asserting we can always resort to strict economic controls, when that's essentially the opposite of this country's foundation. You also didn't address my first point that we're likely currently affording more than we can do, especially in the short term. So shutting down foreign trade would result in a straightforward standard of living decrease. Like yes it is important to remember that finance and money are abstractions on allocating real resources, but currently those abstractions are supremely benefiting the US.
- hgomersall 2y agoWhat do you mean by "affording more than we can do"? The measure of affordability is whether something is possible or not. If anything, a non-zero unemployment/under-employment means more can be afforded. By definition, in real terms, you can never afford more than you can do. Accepting the IOUs means more exports, which is what everyone seems desperate for at the moment. In fact, Trumpism seems to be all about shutting down imports and increasing exports, which happened jolly fast and wasn't in any way related to an inability to import. And as I said, the simple response to export demands exceeding capacity is normal - increase capacity through efficiency, import stuff to sell. A good post on exactly this stuff: https://new-wayland.com/blog/savings-are-an-export-product/ https://new-wayland.com/blog/savings-are-an-export-product/