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Agreed on public transport being the real solution, but BEVs will be much cheaper (than ICEs) in the long run - they have far fewer moving parts, and they're on

Agreed on public transport being the real solution, but BEVs will be much cheaper (than ICEs) in the long run - they have far fewer moving parts, and they're only near the beginning of their learning curve, unlike ICE cars which have been expensively mass-produced for over a century at this point; they're not getting much cheaper.

tremon 2y ago
but BEVs will be much cheaper (than ICEs) in the long run That presupposes leaps of improvements in battery technology and battery recycling. Right now, the maintenance cost of a BEV is roughly $1,000 per year on battery replacement costs alone, and while I'm sure those costs will go down over time, they need to drop by 90% to be cost-competitive with ICE cars. That requires new materials that aren't on the science horizon yet, FAFAIK.
- marssaxman 2y ago
  That's funny: maintenance only costing $1,000/year sounds great compared to the ICE vehicles I'm accustomed to.
  - jmb99 2y ago
    You should buy more reliable vehicles, then, if you care about maintenance costs. Ignoring tires, my maintenance budget for my daily is about $200/year, and including them, averages ~$300/year. With above average mileage per year.
    - marssaxman 2y ago
      Life is full of trade-offs: if I did that, I'd have to carry a loan, which would in turn require a more expensive insurance policy, and then I'd be committed to a greater monthly outlay for the vehicle's financial maintenance than I typically have to expend for its physical maintenance. That kind of leverage probably makes sense for people who have a car at the center of their life, but that's not a way I'd like to live, so I accept the occasional mechanic's bill as the price of greater flexibility in my life as a whole.
      - l0t0b0r0s 2y ago
        plenty of 35mpg beaters in the sub 10k range. How about learning to turn a wrench?
        marssaxman 2y ago
        For sure there are - I currently drive a '96 Toyota T100, which I bought for $5500 a few years back. It is reliable as hell, but the miles take their toll, and one must keep up with the maintenance. Timing belt, water pump, brake calipers, starter motor, etc... they wear out, and it adds up; but it still costs less overall than a newer car would. I've done plenty of wrenching in my time, out of necessity and enjoyment alike (used to do a lot of jeeping, then motorcycling), though these days I usually prefer to employ professionals. That's why I prefer older vehicles I can afford to buy outright: I can trade time against money, depending on which I happen to have more of at the moment, instead of being locked in to the fixed monthly expense I'd have with a low-mileage car.
        l0t0b0r0s 2y ago
        Timing belt is a 10 year maintenance item. ~1000 dollars mostly labor Waterpump is replaced at the same time as the timing belt, and they rarely fail now a days. ~ 300 bucks for one as added part during the timing belt labor I assume you are talking about brake pads as calipers rarely fail, 5-7 year maintenance interval, easy DIY job ~500 for a set of 4. Starter motors also very rarely fail I've had the same one for 20 years in my rx8 hpde toy. Even still they are ~200 bucks and literally 2 bolts and 30 minutes of time. We havent even hit 2000 dollars yet in critical maintenance over 10 years. If you actually knew anything about wrenching you wouldn't be saying newer cars are easier and cheaper to work on either. I dont know how you are doing 1000/ year on maintenance on an ICE but then again you presumably offroad " jeeping " which would make your experience an outlier on what commuter cars actually experience for yearly maintenance.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
- Qwertious 2y ago
  >That presupposes leaps of improvements in battery technology and battery recycling. No, it's just basic extrapolation of the learning curve of EVs compared to ICEs. Even if the battery stays the same price, the fact is that the battery is only ~$5000 in price out of a $30k vehicle. The other 5/6ths of the cost have room to drop. Not to mention, the battery cells might not be new but the battery pack (i.e. the big box that you put all the battery cylinders/rectangles into) is new. >they need to drop by 90% to be cost-competitive with ICE cars. lolwut >the maintenance cost of a BEV is roughly $1,000 per year on battery replacement costs alone wut
  - tremon 2y ago
    wut Maybe do some research before proudly displaying your ignorance for everyone to see? A replacement battery for everyone's favourite yardstick costs (from [0], the first search result): Anywhere around $13,000-$20,000 for Models S At least $14,000 for a Model X premium SUV At least $13,000 for a Model 3 entry-level sedan No matter the model or manufacturer, all EV batteries last for 10-20 years Do your own math, or provide your own references. [0] https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/how-often-do-tesla-batteries-need-to-be-replaced https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/how-often-do-te...

tremon 2y ago

but BEVs will be much cheaper (than ICEs) in the long run That presupposes leaps of improvements in battery technology and battery recycling. Right now, the maintenance cost of a BEV is roughly $1,000 per year on battery replacement costs alone, and while I'm sure those costs will go down over time, they need to drop by 90% to be cost-competitive with ICE cars. That requires new materials that aren't on the science horizon yet, FAFAIK.

marssaxman 2y ago
That's funny: maintenance only costing $1,000/year sounds great compared to the ICE vehicles I'm accustomed to.
- jmb99 2y ago
  You should buy more reliable vehicles, then, if you care about maintenance costs. Ignoring tires, my maintenance budget for my daily is about $200/year, and including them, averages ~$300/year. With above average mileage per year.
  - marssaxman 2y ago
    Life is full of trade-offs: if I did that, I'd have to carry a loan, which would in turn require a more expensive insurance policy, and then I'd be committed to a greater monthly outlay for the vehicle's financial maintenance than I typically have to expend for its physical maintenance. That kind of leverage probably makes sense for people who have a car at the center of their life, but that's not a way I'd like to live, so I accept the occasional mechanic's bill as the price of greater flexibility in my life as a whole.
    - l0t0b0r0s 2y ago
      plenty of 35mpg beaters in the sub 10k range. How about learning to turn a wrench?
      - marssaxman 2y ago
        For sure there are - I currently drive a '96 Toyota T100, which I bought for $5500 a few years back. It is reliable as hell, but the miles take their toll, and one must keep up with the maintenance. Timing belt, water pump, brake calipers, starter motor, etc... they wear out, and it adds up; but it still costs less overall than a newer car would. I've done plenty of wrenching in my time, out of necessity and enjoyment alike (used to do a lot of jeeping, then motorcycling), though these days I usually prefer to employ professionals. That's why I prefer older vehicles I can afford to buy outright: I can trade time against money, depending on which I happen to have more of at the moment, instead of being locked in to the fixed monthly expense I'd have with a low-mileage car.
        l0t0b0r0s 2y ago
        Timing belt is a 10 year maintenance item. ~1000 dollars mostly labor Waterpump is replaced at the same time as the timing belt, and they rarely fail now a days. ~ 300 bucks for one as added part during the timing belt labor I assume you are talking about brake pads as calipers rarely fail, 5-7 year maintenance interval, easy DIY job ~500 for a set of 4. Starter motors also very rarely fail I've had the same one for 20 years in my rx8 hpde toy. Even still they are ~200 bucks and literally 2 bolts and 30 minutes of time. We havent even hit 2000 dollars yet in critical maintenance over 10 years. If you actually knew anything about wrenching you wouldn't be saying newer cars are easier and cheaper to work on either. I dont know how you are doing 1000/ year on maintenance on an ICE but then again you presumably offroad " jeeping " which would make your experience an outlier on what commuter cars actually experience for yearly maintenance.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
Qwertious 2y ago
>That presupposes leaps of improvements in battery technology and battery recycling. No, it's just basic extrapolation of the learning curve of EVs compared to ICEs. Even if the battery stays the same price, the fact is that the battery is only ~$5000 in price out of a $30k vehicle. The other 5/6ths of the cost have room to drop. Not to mention, the battery cells might not be new but the battery pack (i.e. the big box that you put all the battery cylinders/rectangles into) is new. >they need to drop by 90% to be cost-competitive with ICE cars. lolwut >the maintenance cost of a BEV is roughly $1,000 per year on battery replacement costs alone wut
- tremon 2y ago
  wut Maybe do some research before proudly displaying your ignorance for everyone to see? A replacement battery for everyone's favourite yardstick costs (from [0], the first search result): Anywhere around $13,000-$20,000 for Models S At least $14,000 for a Model X premium SUV At least $13,000 for a Model 3 entry-level sedan No matter the model or manufacturer, all EV batteries last for 10-20 years Do your own math, or provide your own references. [0] https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/how-often-do-tesla-batteries-need-to-be-replaced https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/how-often-do-te...