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>Entry level task positions are easily automated by AI. So companies replace the workers, with AI. This is one of the concerns I hear. Not really in a position

by ghaff 2y ago

>Entry level task positions are easily automated by AI. So companies replace the workers, with AI. This is one of the concerns I hear. Not really in a position to judge how serious it is but I've had this discussion with people in senior roles related to, let's call it developer mentoring/development. To the degree LLMs make junior developer roles commodities and therefore less attractive financially that definitely makes bringing new people on-board at a lot of companies less attractive. Essentially no one thinks an LLM is going to step into the role of an experienced senior developer as anything other than a possibly useful assistant. Someone just out of school? Maybe you don't replace the best but maybe you need a lot fewer of them and pay them a lot less.

trod1234 2y ago
Given the decline in overall IT positions over the past two years, I'd say its pretty serious. Recent new graduates with CS/IT backgrounds largely aren't being hired. Historically, we see Information Technology advances first disrupt IT, then it spreads with adoption everywhere else to realize the same cost savings, as a labor multiplier. > Maybe you don't replace the best. In fairness, there's no real way to tell who the best/competent are. University programs have always failed to prepare the student in IT because of the fast moving nature of it. Given the lack of any way to properly distinguish oneself, the best and most competent will look for a time, but eventually they have to go where the money is. That means retraining and taking the loss in time and investment, and its a sticky decision where they aren't likely to fight for such meager scraps. Competent people have options others don't. A wage price floor was hit awhile back in the long trend towards wage suppression. You can't really pay them less when other opportunities with no education provide more economic incentive. This is an example of chaotic distortions involved in money printing generated whipsaws. The opportunity cost ratio between unskilled and skilled labor eliminates any incentive. Why spend 10 years on education and experience when you'll only make at best 33% more than someone who doesn't (pre-tax). Less than that post-tax, and we aren't considering the increased costs that are borne by individuals seeking out positions. The job market has always imposed cost in time, from interview projects (where they steal your work without compensation), to circuitous interviews, etc.
- ghaff 2y ago
  >Competent people have options others don't. And maybe the others should reconsider whether IT/tech is the automatic meal ticket they thought it was. Not sure that's the worst outcome. Honestly, there are probably still a lot of jobs floating around--just a lot fewer at the highest paying and sexiest companies--and some of the jobs may be in trades and other professions.
  - trod1234 2y ago
    Except that's not the outcome, or how it happens in practice. When merit is no longer an important metric, the competent leave first because they are no longer rewarded for their productive capacity, or effort. The people who thought t was an automatic meal ticket burn the house down for everyone. The current offers going out for IT Architect work, decade+ direct experience is 40k/yr, no equity. No conversion rate on applications that isn't 1000:1 phone call. For 40k/yr, you can go and flip burgers and not have to deal with the high stress involved in these type of positions. It would be a joke, if only it were not serious, and things will only get worse. The creeping ruin has a way of coming at you sideways without you knowing until its too late.

by ghaff 2y ago

trod1234 2y ago

Given the decline in overall IT positions over the past two years, I'd say its pretty serious. Recent new graduates with CS/IT backgrounds largely aren't being hired. Historically, we see Information Technology advances first disrupt IT, then it spreads with adoption everywhere else to realize the same cost savings, as a labor multiplier. > Maybe you don't replace the best. In fairness, there's no real way to tell who the best/competent are. University programs have always failed to prepare the student in IT because of the fast moving nature of it. Given the lack of any way to properly distinguish oneself, the best and most competent will look for a time, but eventually they have to go where the money is. That means retraining and taking the loss in time and investment, and its a sticky decision where they aren't likely to fight for such meager scraps. Competent people have options others don't. A wage price floor was hit awhile back in the long trend towards wage suppression. You can't really pay them less when other opportunities with no education provide more economic incentive. This is an example of chaotic distortions involved in money printing generated whipsaws. The opportunity cost ratio between unskilled and skilled labor eliminates any incentive. Why spend 10 years on education and experience when you'll only make at best 33% more than someone who doesn't (pre-tax). Less than that post-tax, and we aren't considering the increased costs that are borne by individuals seeking out positions. The job market has always imposed cost in time, from interview projects (where they steal your work without compensation), to circuitous interviews, etc.

ghaff 2y ago
>Competent people have options others don't. And maybe the others should reconsider whether IT/tech is the automatic meal ticket they thought it was. Not sure that's the worst outcome. Honestly, there are probably still a lot of jobs floating around--just a lot fewer at the highest paying and sexiest companies--and some of the jobs may be in trades and other professions.
- trod1234 2y ago
  Except that's not the outcome, or how it happens in practice. When merit is no longer an important metric, the competent leave first because they are no longer rewarded for their productive capacity, or effort. The people who thought t was an automatic meal ticket burn the house down for everyone. The current offers going out for IT Architect work, decade+ direct experience is 40k/yr, no equity. No conversion rate on applications that isn't 1000:1 phone call. For 40k/yr, you can go and flip burgers and not have to deal with the high stress involved in these type of positions. It would be a joke, if only it were not serious, and things will only get worse. The creeping ruin has a way of coming at you sideways without you knowing until its too late.