4 ms·

Within 4 years, Europe from top to bottom, will be running on Linux. Massive layoffs will hit the US Defense industry as no sane nation ever will buy again a U

by belter 2y ago

Within 4 years, Europe from top to bottom, will be running on Linux. Massive layoffs will hit the US Defense industry as no sane nation ever will buy again a US weapon. Cloud vendors will have to split hard their operations or see revenue cut in half.

sampo 2y ago
2029, the year of Linux on the desktop.
- impossiblefork 2y ago
  For my mother, the year of Linux on the desktop was this year. Basically, she got enough of Windows, mostly due to subscriptions, that there was news being shown in the browser, and some other related issues and she was incredibly happy with Ubuntu (which is of course American, but since it's free and gratis, it doesn't really matter, and there's always SUSE). She liked the cleanness, the absence of distractors, how it was clearer what was in the cloud and what was on the local machine, that she wasn't paying any continuous fee for LibreOffice and the happiness this switch brought was huge. The only reason people are still using Windows is gaming and that it's a default on the machines at computer- and electronics stores. They'd be happy with Linux, they'd be more productive with Linux and they'd be calmer with Linux.
  - mmooss 2y ago
    > The only reason people are still using Windows is gaming Also, almost every corporation and similar large-scale deployment, for management and compatibility purposes.
    - impossiblefork 2y ago
      I suppose, but it should mostly be a quick matter to switch away from it.
      - mjr00 2y ago
        I work with energy systems that are still running Windows Server 2003. Even upgrading to a new version of Windows would be a multi-year project; rewriting all of the customized, Windows-specific software to work on Linux would be incomprehensibly expensive.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - mmooss 2y ago
        People who don't know often imagine that, understandably. Recreating years of accumulated deployment and management in a new system is so expensive, it's usually impossible. In a real sense, you have to redo many years of work, all at once. And on top of that, you have to deploy it all at once - an immensely complex project that is almost certain to be a disaster. Also, in many ways, Windows management components (Active Directory, Group Policy, etc.) have no competition: First, you must have management systems: imagine you are deploying, configuring and managing a new application on 10,000 desktops, or just 1,000. You can't manually go to each desktop (just add up the time spent walking between desks!); you must automate it. Second, most user applications provide management components for Windows and for no other platform. If they have something else, it's often an afterthought (and goodness forbid they stop developing it and you are left 'to your own devices'). Finally, there's usually no reason not to use Windows. Why create these risks and costs? The users care only about the applications - these aren't their home computers; the IT department handles the OS, etc. The network effect of the Windows standard is hard to beat. There are exceptions: Some deployments are very simple and can be done on Linux, for example POS cash registers. Many applications now depend on web browsers, though even then you can have DRM and other issues, and you don't know what new application a user may need tomorrow. Macs are a standard in some places.
        mmooss 2y ago
        I forgot another aspect of migrating: After all that time and money and energy (including opportunity cost of taking people from other productive work), what do you have to show for it? Another directory services / management system that does the same thing as - or likely worse then - the original. All that work and at best you haven't moved an inch forward, you haven't helped the business' bottom line ... what did you do? How do you explain that to the CEO?
- tbrownaw 2y ago
  > 2029, the year of Linux on the desktop. Heh. I ran Linux as my desktop since... approximately the turn off the millennium, with a brief downgrade to Windows from when the Rift S came out until I finally got around to switching back last year. I should probably see about finding time to upgrade my laptop away from the os it came with as well as some point...
landryraccoon 2y ago
> no sane nation ever will buy a US weapon I don’t think the US defense industry is worried. Do you know any sane nations around here? In general it’s not like war is about who’s right or moral. It’s more about who can bring more and better weapons to the fight.
- JadeNB 2y ago
  > In general it’s not like war is about who’s right or moral. It’s more about who can bring more and better weapons to the fight. I suspect, though I'm not sure, that the point was more that a nation that rejects science in favor of a different kind of ideological purity (lack of virtue signaling as its own kind of virtue signaling) is a nation whose weapons are no longer likely to be the better ones.
  - foldr 2y ago
    I think the point is that the US is no longer a reliable ally, so people will no longer want to buy weapons systems for which the US might withdraw support at any moment.
    - aerostable_slug 2y ago
      That seems to be a premature assessment. Trump paused a weapons shipment to Ukraine, then allowed to it to continue. No other shipments have been held up at all. Our allies continue to receive the output of the American arms industry just like they did six months ago. In fact, the latest news is that Trump is expanding our circle of friends when it comes to advanced weapons, offering India the opportunity to purchase F-35s.
      - foldr 2y ago
        It's a long-term shift. European militaries are built on the assumption of US support via NATO in the event of an attack on a member state. That assumption is looking very shaky now, and it will affect future planning.
kordlessagain 2y ago
Initiated by POLICY and evidenced by your REACTION, it’s pretty clear polarized views will hamper healthy discourse.
mjr00 2y ago
Is this based on anything other than wishful thinking? European nations switching entirely to domestic military production within 4 years is as realistic as Trump's plan to make the US auto industry fully domestic within a few months, which is not very. Cloud vendors already offer ways to ensure your data never leaves the EU, for larger enterprises. Which Linux distro is Europe going to be on, top-to-bottom? The one controlled by Google?
- patmorgan23 2y ago
  SUSE, it's a German company.
  - mjr00 2y ago
    Have any EU governments indicated they are moving away from Windows/MacOS to SUSE?
  - verzali 2y ago
    Canonical is British as well.
- verzali 2y ago
  France has a significant military industry. It will take time to switch. The real shift may be to move closer to China.
throawayonthe 2y ago
[dead]

by belter 2y ago

sampo 2y ago

2029, the year of Linux on the desktop.

impossiblefork 2y ago
For my mother, the year of Linux on the desktop was this year. Basically, she got enough of Windows, mostly due to subscriptions, that there was news being shown in the browser, and some other related issues and she was incredibly happy with Ubuntu (which is of course American, but since it's free and gratis, it doesn't really matter, and there's always SUSE). She liked the cleanness, the absence of distractors, how it was clearer what was in the cloud and what was on the local machine, that she wasn't paying any continuous fee for LibreOffice and the happiness this switch brought was huge. The only reason people are still using Windows is gaming and that it's a default on the machines at computer- and electronics stores. They'd be happy with Linux, they'd be more productive with Linux and they'd be calmer with Linux.
- mmooss 2y ago
  > The only reason people are still using Windows is gaming Also, almost every corporation and similar large-scale deployment, for management and compatibility purposes.
  - impossiblefork 2y ago
    I suppose, but it should mostly be a quick matter to switch away from it.
    - mjr00 2y ago
      I work with energy systems that are still running Windows Server 2003. Even upgrading to a new version of Windows would be a multi-year project; rewriting all of the customized, Windows-specific software to work on Linux would be incomprehensibly expensive.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - mmooss 2y ago
      People who don't know often imagine that, understandably. Recreating years of accumulated deployment and management in a new system is so expensive, it's usually impossible. In a real sense, you have to redo many years of work, all at once. And on top of that, you have to deploy it all at once - an immensely complex project that is almost certain to be a disaster. Also, in many ways, Windows management components (Active Directory, Group Policy, etc.) have no competition: First, you must have management systems: imagine you are deploying, configuring and managing a new application on 10,000 desktops, or just 1,000. You can't manually go to each desktop (just add up the time spent walking between desks!); you must automate it. Second, most user applications provide management components for Windows and for no other platform. If they have something else, it's often an afterthought (and goodness forbid they stop developing it and you are left 'to your own devices'). Finally, there's usually no reason not to use Windows. Why create these risks and costs? The users care only about the applications - these aren't their home computers; the IT department handles the OS, etc. The network effect of the Windows standard is hard to beat. There are exceptions: Some deployments are very simple and can be done on Linux, for example POS cash registers. Many applications now depend on web browsers, though even then you can have DRM and other issues, and you don't know what new application a user may need tomorrow. Macs are a standard in some places.
      - mmooss 2y ago
        I forgot another aspect of migrating: After all that time and money and energy (including opportunity cost of taking people from other productive work), what do you have to show for it? Another directory services / management system that does the same thing as - or likely worse then - the original. All that work and at best you haven't moved an inch forward, you haven't helped the business' bottom line ... what did you do? How do you explain that to the CEO?
tbrownaw 2y ago
> 2029, the year of Linux on the desktop. Heh. I ran Linux as my desktop since... approximately the turn off the millennium, with a brief downgrade to Windows from when the Rift S came out until I finally got around to switching back last year. I should probably see about finding time to upgrade my laptop away from the os it came with as well as some point...

landryraccoon 2y ago

> no sane nation ever will buy a US weapon I don’t think the US defense industry is worried. Do you know any sane nations around here? In general it’s not like war is about who’s right or moral. It’s more about who can bring more and better weapons to the fight.

JadeNB 2y ago
> In general it’s not like war is about who’s right or moral. It’s more about who can bring more and better weapons to the fight. I suspect, though I'm not sure, that the point was more that a nation that rejects science in favor of a different kind of ideological purity (lack of virtue signaling as its own kind of virtue signaling) is a nation whose weapons are no longer likely to be the better ones.
- foldr 2y ago
  I think the point is that the US is no longer a reliable ally, so people will no longer want to buy weapons systems for which the US might withdraw support at any moment.
  - aerostable_slug 2y ago
    That seems to be a premature assessment. Trump paused a weapons shipment to Ukraine, then allowed to it to continue. No other shipments have been held up at all. Our allies continue to receive the output of the American arms industry just like they did six months ago. In fact, the latest news is that Trump is expanding our circle of friends when it comes to advanced weapons, offering India the opportunity to purchase F-35s.
    - foldr 2y ago
      It's a long-term shift. European militaries are built on the assumption of US support via NATO in the event of an attack on a member state. That assumption is looking very shaky now, and it will affect future planning.

kordlessagain 2y ago

Initiated by POLICY and evidenced by your REACTION, it’s pretty clear polarized views will hamper healthy discourse.

mjr00 2y ago

Is this based on anything other than wishful thinking? European nations switching entirely to domestic military production within 4 years is as realistic as Trump's plan to make the US auto industry fully domestic within a few months, which is not very. Cloud vendors already offer ways to ensure your data never leaves the EU, for larger enterprises. Which Linux distro is Europe going to be on, top-to-bottom? The one controlled by Google?

patmorgan23 2y ago
SUSE, it's a German company.
- mjr00 2y ago
  Have any EU governments indicated they are moving away from Windows/MacOS to SUSE?
- verzali 2y ago
  Canonical is British as well.
verzali 2y ago
France has a significant military industry. It will take time to switch. The real shift may be to move closer to China.

throawayonthe 2y ago

[dead]